At the Winter Meetings, Dana Brown made clear the Astros were not trading Alex Bregman, a clear indication they are continuing to put all their focus into winning in 2024.
I tend to agree with you on the noise surrounding Bregman (and now Valdez). 2024 might be the last best shot at a World Series title. The time is now with Bregman likely gone at end of season, Altuve aging, Valdez reaching FA after 2025, Tucker’s impending FA as well, etc. etc. Bregman and Valdez, in my opinion, aren’t going anywhere for a team with legitimate WS title chances.
I’m not as optimistic that the Astros will go above the luxury tax much more in the near term. Perhaps at trade deadline if the right option presents itself and they go further “all-in”. I find your reasoning on prioritizing 2024 logical, as well as your point that going over a little or a lot really doesn’t make all too much of a difference until you approach higher tax thresholds. That said, I think the comp penalty for losing Bregman comes into play. Houston is only BARELY above the threshold right now and a simple move like unloading Urquidy at the deadline would get Houston under the first threshold (since the CBT number at the end of the season is the one that matters for calculation). I think they’re going to keep moves conservative so that easy moves like unloading Urquidy will spare them some decent space at the deadline should they need it.
Furthermore, the recent rumblings about “money being an issue” and the loss of RSN revenue (mentioned by The Athletic), give me. the impression that budget management is in play big time.
I tend to agree with you on the noise surrounding Bregman (and now Valdez). 2024 might be the last best shot at a World Series title. The time is now with Bregman likely gone at end of season, Altuve aging, Valdez reaching FA after 2025, Tucker’s impending FA as well, etc. etc. Bregman and Valdez, in my opinion, aren’t going anywhere for a team with legitimate WS title chances.
I’m not as optimistic that the Astros will go above the luxury tax much more in the near term. Perhaps at trade deadline if the right option presents itself and they go further “all-in”. I find your reasoning on prioritizing 2024 logical, as well as your point that going over a little or a lot really doesn’t make all too much of a difference until you approach higher tax thresholds. That said, I think the comp penalty for losing Bregman comes into play. Houston is only BARELY above the threshold right now and a simple move like unloading Urquidy at the deadline would get Houston under the first threshold (since the CBT number at the end of the season is the one that matters for calculation). I think they’re going to keep moves conservative so that easy moves like unloading Urquidy will spare them some decent space at the deadline should they need it.
Furthermore, the recent rumblings about “money being an issue” and the loss of RSN revenue (mentioned by The Athletic), give me. the impression that budget management is in play big time.