Standing Pat, Also Known As Going for It in 2024
Standing Pat, Also Known As Going for It in 2024
At the Winter Meetings, Dana Brown made clear the Astros were not trading Alex Bregman, a clear indication they are continuing to put all their focus into winning in 2024.
How do rumors get started?
They're started by the jealous people
And they get mad seeing something they had
And somebody else is holding
If you’re an ‘80s kid like me, you’ll remember “Rumors” by Timex Social Club. And for the last few weeks, us Astros fans have heard a lot of rumors about potential moves the team might make this offseason.
In particular, there were rumors that the team was considering trading Alex Bregman. How did that rumor get started? It’s unclear, but the possibility that it was started by jealous people mad seeing something somebody else is holding is quite strong.
At the Winter Meetings, General Manager Dana Brown put an end to all of those rumors (but not all of the jealousy) by saying “I don’t know where this whole Bregman rush is coming from. But it’s certainly not coming from us. Because we need Bregman. He’s a pillar for this club. So we’re not entertaining trading Bregman at all.”
Brown also put to rest another set of rumors—that the Astros were looking to trade Jake Meyers. Brown said “We’re going to give Meyers a chance to play every day. Meyers is a really good defender. Hopefully we can make some adjustments with the bat but we’re going to give him a chance to play.”
Brown also said that Chas McCormick will start the season in left field and that “he’s one of those guys that showed he could be an everyday. He’s earned the right.”
In short, the front office has decided to stand pat with the current team this offseason. They are not going to make a big move to shake up the team’s roster.
But that decision makes sense. 2024 is a big year for the Astros. Jim Crane already pushed a large amount of his chips into the 2024 season at the 2023 trade deadline. The team faces some difficult choices in 2025 and after as some of their top players will reach free agency. The farm system at the moment lacks a player who seems certain to replace on of those players. In short, the team is all-in on 2024.
Their decisions this offseason—especially to keep Bregman—reflect their focus on 2024.
The Importance of 2024
It was clear to me that the Astros were never going to trade Bregman this offseason despite the rumors. The Astros are built to win in 2024—they are a veteran team with lots of good players who were but one game away from another World Series trip in 2023. The team’s two trade deadline pickups in 2023—Justin Verlander and Kendall Graveman—are both under contract for this season.
The logic for trading Bregman is that he will be a free agent after the 2024 season and is likely to sign elsewhere. The team’s payroll is near the limits of the budget set by owner Jim Crane and the team is more likely to sign Jose Altuve to a contract extension than Bregman. Thus, the team can get more value from younger players who have several years to go before free agency than they would from Bregman.
Overall, that logic is sound—it’s why you can argue the Padres got more value from their trade of Juan Soto to the Yankees for pitching depth. But it ignores the fact that the Astros greatly value the 2024 season over seasons in the future. The team is built to win now and Bregman is a key part of that. He is projected for 4.5 Wins above Replacement according to Steamer, which is the 18th highest in the majors (and third on the Astros after Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker).
It would thus be hard to construct a trade that would send out Bregman and get as much value for 2024 for the Astros as they send out. It would not surprise me if other teams inquired about Bregman’s availability, but none with a deal that made sense for the 2024 Astros.
I suspect something similar happened in trade discussions about Meyers. As Brown noted in the quote above, Meyers is a good defender. In fact, I would say excellent. Statcast shows that Meyers had the 5th highest “jump” on the ball among Major League outfielders in 2023. His defensive capabilities in center field give him a high floor—he will bring value to his team even if his bat is subpar. Other teams may have been looking to get a bargain in Meyers, and if that is the case, then Brown was wise not to deal him.
For both Bregman and Meyers, it seems it was difficult for the front office to find a deal that made the team better in 2024.
The commitment to 2024 this offseason is not a surprise based on how the front office’s decisions at the 2023 trade deadline. After the acquisition of Verlander, I wrote that ‘[t]he trade shows that owner Jim Crane is all in on winning another World Series his season or next season.”
The acquisition of Verlander (and Kendall Graveman) at the trade deadline in 2023 in exchange for future assets indicated “Crane has made a choice to focus on the 2023 and 2024 seasons at the expense of the team’s future in 2025 and beyond.”
In short, there was no reason to expect the team to make an all-in move in July and then turn around five months later and make a move with an eye to the future.
The Rest of the Offseason
While the Astros are “all-in” on 2024, one should not expect them to do much for the rest of the offseason. As I wrote in my offseason preview “The Astros have few holes in their lineup or in their rotation.”
And part of the reason for that is the front office addressed some of their 2024 needs at the 2023 trade deadline. The team would be looking for rotation depth this offseason if they had not acquired Verlander at the deadline.
The team addressed its most pressing need when it signed Victor Caratini to serve as backup catcher. The team could use a left handed hitting outfielder to work in with the right handed hitting McCormick, Meyers, and Mauricio Dubon. But Brown’s comments last week indicate that they will not prioritize this position.
That leaves the bullpen, and here is where I expect the Astros to add another arm this offseason. The Astros have already been connected in reports to Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks, two of the top middle relief options available in free agency. They are two of many options available for bullpen help.
I do not expect the team to do much more this offseason to add to the 26-man roster. But I do believe that the front office will be aggressive about making a move at the trade deadline for help at that time.
The Payroll Situation Compels the Team to Add More
Roster Resource currently lists the Astros with a luxury tax payroll of $237.4M. That is an estimate because salaries for the seven Astros eligible for arbitration1 are not yet set. Yet that number is significant because the threshold for paying the luxury tax is $237 million; they are just above the tax.
The front office just spent $6 million on a backup catcher in Victor Caratini, which is more than the average backup catcher makes.2 And while Caratini is one of the stronger backup catchers in baseball, he is still projected for only 257 plate appearances according to Depth Charts projection at Fangraphs.
Teams looking to get under the luxury tax do not spend so much on a backup catcher, especially when it gives them little margin of error in the arbitration to stay under the threshold.
And there is no reason to go just a little over the tax. The biggest penalty the Astros would receive from being over the tax is lower draft pick compensation for losing a free agent and they will incur that whether they are $1 or $1 billion over the threshold. They only pay tax on the amount over $237 million, so the hit to Jim Crane’s profits are modest.
In short, the Astros have every incentive to add another player in free agency and to add again at the trade deadline in 2024.
The decisions get harder after this season, but for right now, they are pretty easy. They are set up to contend in 2024 and should make moves to do that.
The are Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Mauricio Dubon, Luis Garcia, Bryan Abreu, and Chas McCormick.
For comparison, the Guardians just signed Austin Hedges for $4 million to be their backup catcher.
I tend to agree with you on the noise surrounding Bregman (and now Valdez). 2024 might be the last best shot at a World Series title. The time is now with Bregman likely gone at end of season, Altuve aging, Valdez reaching FA after 2025, Tucker’s impending FA as well, etc. etc. Bregman and Valdez, in my opinion, aren’t going anywhere for a team with legitimate WS title chances.
I’m not as optimistic that the Astros will go above the luxury tax much more in the near term. Perhaps at trade deadline if the right option presents itself and they go further “all-in”. I find your reasoning on prioritizing 2024 logical, as well as your point that going over a little or a lot really doesn’t make all too much of a difference until you approach higher tax thresholds. That said, I think the comp penalty for losing Bregman comes into play. Houston is only BARELY above the threshold right now and a simple move like unloading Urquidy at the deadline would get Houston under the first threshold (since the CBT number at the end of the season is the one that matters for calculation). I think they’re going to keep moves conservative so that easy moves like unloading Urquidy will spare them some decent space at the deadline should they need it.
Furthermore, the recent rumblings about “money being an issue” and the loss of RSN revenue (mentioned by The Athletic), give me. the impression that budget management is in play big time.