Should the Front Office Have Signed More Pitching Depth in the Offseason
I go through the reasons the Front Office did not sign another starting pitching this summer. The most likely explanation--they thought their internal depth options were good enough.
The good news was short lived. On Friday, Justin Verlander returned from the IL and pitched the Astros to a victory. Things seemed to be getting better.
Then on Sunday morning, news came that Cristian Javier had “neck discomfort.” Instead of making his scheduled start that day, he would go on the injured list.
The Astros have a number of problems that have created their terrible 7-16 start, but starting pitching is at the top of the list. Astros starters rank 26th in the majors in ERA (4.89), 27th in strikeout rate (18.8%), and 29th in walk rate (11.3%). The difference between their strikeout rate and walk rate is 7.5%, and that’s the lowest in major league baseball.
The biggest issue for the Astros rotation is that they have a better one on the IL than they do on the mound. Javier joins Framber Valdez on the IL, both of which suffered injuries in the regular season. That differentiates them from Jose Urquidy, who suffered an elbow injury during Spring Training and from Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia, both of whom had elbow surgery last season and will not be healthy until the second half of the season.
The reliance on pitchers better suited to long relief or innings in Sugar Land or Corpus Christi has raised an important question among Astros fans? Should the Astros front office have seen this coming? Or more specifically, should the Astros front office have signed another starting pitcher this offseason to forestall the scenario we have seen this April.
The old adage is that “you can never have too much pitching,” and there is a basic truth to that. Pitchers get hurt. It’s been the key theme of the baseball season so far with pitching injuries seeming to happen nearly every day of the first two weeks after Opening Day.
So at one level, the front office should have acquired more starting pitching. Injuries to pitchers seem inevitable, and a front office should plan for it. And of course, two of the injuries to Astros starters happened in 2023 and the injuries to Urquidy and Verlander were known in Spring Training and happened while several starting pitchers were still free agents.
The argument for this is best summed up in this tweet by Cody Poage of The Crawfish Boxes.
The question in the headline says should the front office have foreseen the pitching injuries, but the answer to that is of course yes. The better question is why didn’t they acquire another starting pitcher over the offseason.
There are several potential reasons and I go through each of them.
They Tried and Could Not Make It Work
We know that the front office tried to acquire a starting pitcher this offseason. Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported on March 15 that the Astros were “ engaged in a serious pursuit” of two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell.
But two days later, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Astros “appear to be long-shots to sign” The team apparently “balked at Snell’s asking price of at least a two-year guarantee for $60 million, including an opt-out after the 2024 season” based on luxury tax concerns. Snell ended up signing such a contract with the San Francisco Giants, though he’s been uninspiring in the early going this season.
It seems like the Astros made an offer to Snell but he held out for more, and got it from the Giants. Teams have budgets and you can’t sign every player.
While we know about the Snell pursuit, it is quite possible that Astros tried to acquire less prominent starting pitching via a trade and these efforts proved fruitless. I thought the team might consider identifying pitchers who were out of options near the roster cutdown date and make a small trade for them. Of course, many other teams are just as concerned by pitching injuries—ones that have already happened and ones are likely to happen in the future.
So it’s possible, if not likely, that the Astros tried to acquire more starting pitching but could not get it done.
There Is No Budget Room for More Starting Pitching.
On The Show podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman, Astros senior adviser Reggie Jackson described not meeting Snell’s contract demand as “being fiscally responsible,” and that Snell’s contract ($62M over 2 years) was “too much for him.”
If that is true, it brings up the question of why the front office did not pivot to Jordan Montgomery, who signed a more modest 1 year/$25M contract with the Diamondbacks on March 26. That contract is not as large as Snell’s, nor does it include a player option for the second year.1
One answer might be that signing Montgomery, like signing Snell, would have pushed the Astros into another luxury tax threshold, taking more money out of Jim Crane’s profits. Jim Crane has only authorized a payroll above the luxury tax threshold once before in his ownership of the Astros. He is probably not looking to pay more than necessary.
The Astros went over what I thought their budget was to sign Josh Hader to be their closer. They may be stretched at their payroll limit at the moment, waiting until the trade deadline to make an increase in their budget.
If so, that would explain why the team did not pursue Montgomery to a very reasonable contract.2 It might also explain why the team did not pursue smaller free agents like Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger. Both signed small contracts late provide rotation depth with the Rangers and White Sox respectively. Jim Crane might not have authorized the $4.5 million to sign Lorenzen or the $3 million to sign Clevinger.
They Thought the Depth Starters Were Good Enough
In 2023, the Astros faced a similar criticism for not securing enough pitching depth in the offseason after injuries to Garcia, McCullers, and Urquidy. But the Astros relied on their internal depth options of J.P. France, Brandon Bielak, and Ronel Blanco.
And in 2023, they came through as well as could be expected. I wrote last month how the depth options had come through in 2023: “The Astros got 43 starts and 56 appearances from France, Bielak, and Blanco in 2023. The trio had a collective 3.96 ERA in 258.1 innings pitched…over a third of a run better than the league average ERA in 2023 of 4.33.” The Astros pitching issues in 2023 were mostly about the regression of Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier from their 2022 form.
The Astros have moved Bielak permanently to the bullpen, but Blanco and France have both been permanent members of the rotation so far this season. Blanco has been a revelation with his new changeup but France has struggled.
The Astros have turned to top pitching prospect Spencer Arighetti for two starts and he’s shown why he has promise (10.3 K/9) and why he probably needs more seasoning (2.28 WHIP). The biggest issue with the starting rotation has been Hunter Brown, whose strikeout totals are average (17 in 17.2 innings) but whose walk totals are too high (12 in those 17.2 innings).
The failure of the depth options so far this year raise questions about the ability of the front office to evaluate its own talent. Were they too taken in by the relative success of their depth options in 2023 to see that they had pitching in good luck. Were they too optimistic in their evaluation of Arrighetti’s readiness for the majors.
And these questions lead to two more important questions. First, is it too early in the season to conclude that the depth options have not worked? Probably so, though the lousy record means it’s getting late early for the Astros.
And second, did the optimistic evaluation of the depth options lead the front office to avoid seeking out other depth options. This would not be stars like Snell or established starters like Montgomery, but non-roster invitees who could bridge the rotation until healthier starters arrive. Friend of the Substack Jeremy Kaufman has suggested Jake Odorizzi as an example.
The front office put a lot of focus on working on the back of the bullpen this offseason and extended a number of Spring Training invitations for relievers. They did not do for starting pitchers.
A Combination
My educated guess is that the answer is some combination of not enough budget and faith in the internal options. And these can work together. Do we need to spend on another starting pitcher? No, we’ve got lots of options.
Of course, a big issue for the Astros right now is that they need to use all of those options, even if they are not the most desirable options.
Based on the late starts of Snell and Montgomery, the Astros would have had to rely on their depth options no matter how large a luxury tax payment Jim Crane would be willing to make.
There are noises from the team that the injuries to Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are modest and they will be back soon. It is hard to be optimistic about injuries to pitchers, but with that being said, one hopes those optimistic reports are accurate.
This team desperately needs good starting pitching, and needs it as soon as possible.
Jim Crane has never given a player an “opt out” in a contract. In his interview with Sherman and Heyman, Jackson said that when it comes to player options, “we don’t play that game.”
There are extra penalties for going over the luxury tax threshold in multiple seasons, so the one-year commitment to Montgomery might make him preferable to Snell for the Astros.