Will the Astros Pitching Depth Come Through…Like They Did in 2023?

The Astros would be better off with a healthy starting rotation. But the depth options--France, Blanco, and Bielak--were effective in 2023. There's every reason to think they can do it again in 2024.

The theme of Astros Spring Training 2024 has been an unpleasant one—injuries to starting pitchers. Justin Verlander reported to camp “a couple of weeks behind” schedule due to shoulder tightness and he has not pitched in an exhibition game. Jose Urquidy did pitch in Spring Training games, where he suffered a “forearm strain” on March 15. An MRI showed no structural damage. Both Verlander and Urquidy will start the season on the injured list.

J.P France is expected to be in the Opening Day rotation, but he was slow to start Spring Training due to shoulder inflammation. It is unlikely he will be able to go a full workload when the season starts.

And those are just the injuries suffered this year. Last season, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers suffered elbow injuries that will keep the two of them from getting off of the injured list until July at the earliest.

These injuries produce two thoughts: 1) let’s get the season started so that any pitch an Astro player throws is in a real game, and 2) the Astros will have not just have to rely on their depth options in their starting rotation, but they will have to do from the start of the season.

The Astros apparently considered one alternative to their depth options. Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal reported that the Astros were in “serious pursuit” of Blake Snell. Is serious pursuit like hot pursuit? One answer is yes, as the Astros pursuit of Snell went about as well as Buford T. Justice’s pursuit of Smokey and the Bandit?  Neither got their man.

The Depth Options Were Effective in 2023

The Astros instead will open the season with several of their depth options in the rotation. With Verlander and Urquidy sidelined, the team will turn to France as the #4 starter and Ronel Blanco as the #5 starter. Behind them is either Brandon Bielak or prospect Spencer Arighetti. After that, the team would likely turn to Shawn Dubin, who is on the 40-man roster, though he will start the season on the minor league injured list.

Can the Astros rely on these options in their rotation?  Well, they had to turn to their depth options a great deal in 2023, and it worked out pretty well.

The Astros got 43 starts and 56 appearances from France, Bielak, and Blanco in 2023. The trio had a collective 3.96 ERA in 258.1 innings pitched. These three were collectively somewhat fortunate, as their strikeout rate was below league average and their walk rate was above it. But the 3.96 ERA was over a third of a run better than the league average ERA in 2023 of 4.33.

There is no All Star or Cy Young case to make for any of these three, but their collective effort in 2023 exceeded any reasonable expectations for three pitchers who began the season in Sugar Land. These three collectively threw about one in every six innings that Astros pitchers threw in the 2023 season. Collectively, they produced 2.0 bWAR.

The combination of JP France, Ronel Blanco will pitch key innings for the Astros in 2024. One hopes they do as well as they did when they pitched in 2023.

League Average Projections for France, Blanco, and Bielak

But that was last year. What about this year? We all know that the Astros will be better off the sooner Justin Verlander returns to the rotation and with a healthy Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia continuing at the end of the season. In an ideal world, pitchers like Bielak, France, and Blanco would be long men in the bullpen  or would wait in the wings in Sugar Land.

The reality is that pitchers break, and France, Bielak, and Blanco will be called upon to be rotation options while other starters heal.

France is likely the first option among these three, which means he will likely garner the most starts. France proved to be an effective control pitcher in 2023. His strikeout rates were modest (6^th percentile according to Statcast), but he managed contact well, giving up contact and barrel rates near league average. It kept batters from punishing him despite his lack of swing-and-miss.

The low strikeout rate pushed his FIP up but the modest contact kept his ERA in good shape. He is only again expected to have a modest ERA—between 4.17 and 4.76 in the projections available at Fangraphs. That’s right around league average. If France can keep an average ERA in his starts, the Astros can win a healthy share of those games with their above average offense.

Blanco is in many ways the opposite of France. Blanco gets a lot of swing-and-miss—his whiff rate of 33.0% was in the 90^th percentile, according to Statcast. But Blanco had a high walk rate—12.4% and gave up hard contact; he allowed 12 home runs in his 52 big league innings in 2023. Blanco has looked better in Spring Training this season, striking out 18 and walking only 4 in 15.2 innings. Gains in his control would allow him to harness his effective stuff, so one hopes these Spring numbers reflect real improvement.

But projections are skeptical. He is slated for an ERA between 4.57 and 5.00 based on the projections available on his Fangraphs page.

Bielak is likely third in line among these three to get a start in 2024. Bielak has no optionable years left, so the Astros were planning on having him in the bullpen to get value from Bielak. Bielak at this point would only be an emergency starter, but the Astros are not far off from having to tap an emergency starter.

Bielak danced through the raindrops in 2023. He allowed opponents to slash .277/361/.460 for an .821 OPS. Bielak struck out only 17.6% of batters that he faced while walking 10.2%. And yet, Bielak’s ERA was only 3.83. Hits ell, but he spaced them out enough to have a respectable ERA.

Projections are optimistic about Bielak for 2024. For example, the ATC projectinos expect him to increase his strikeout rate to 20.0% and reduce his walk rate to 9.2%. That will produce a 4.22 ERA, though the projections presume he will be in the bullpen the whole year.

If the Astros need to go beyond those three, it is likely they will turn to their top pitching prospect Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti has the worst projections of this group, with ERAs between 4.43 and 4.84 with double digit walk rates. Arrighetti seems to need more deveopment in Sugar Land this season.

The Astros would of course prefer to have their top flight starters get back to health as soon as possible. But reviewing the numbers for their depth options shows the Astros are not in dire straits if they have to rely on France, Blanco, and Bielak to have to shoulder a significant load this season. They can be around league average. And when that is mixed with the Astros above average offense, it can lead to lots of wins.