Bryan Abreu Has Risen To Near the Top Of The Bullpen
Thanks to his wipeout slider, Bryan Abreu has passed Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, and Ryne Stanek in the Astros bullpen pecking order.
Last week marked a new moment for the Astros. I mean sure, the team seemed to turn a corner toward good play for the first time in the 2023 season. After a sluggish start, the Astros faced two playoff teams from 2022, and had a great week. They took 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays at Minute Maid Park before sweeping the Braves in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. They continued their hot streak this week by winning a series against the Rays at Tropicana Field.
No, the new moment for the Astros happened on Saturday when the bullpen door opened and Bryan Abreu was called upon to finish out a game in a save situation while Ryan Pressly was down due to having pitched three times in four games. Confirming this was not a fluke or the result of bullpen taxed by a number of close games, Abreu was again called upon on Sunday in the ninth inning in a save situation.
In 2022, the backup closer role was held by Rafael Montero, who had an excellent season, saving 14 games when Ryan Pressly was down for injury or rest. But on Wednesday, Montero had a bad outing, giving up a run and loading the bases against the Blue Jays. Abreu was the man called upon to bail out the Astros, and that he did, getting a lineout, a strikeout and a fly out to preserve a 1 run lead.
This usage pattern—Abreu as the backup closer after he bailed out the previous backup closer—showed that Dusty Baker had made a decision about his bullpen. Bryan Abreu is the second best reliever in the Astros bullpen and would be used in that manner.
A Breakout 2022 Season
Abreu broke out in the 2022 season, when he struck out 88 batters in 60.1 innings on his way to a 1.94 ERA. But Abreu’s usage pattern during the regular season indicated that Dusty Baker still had doubts about him—and favored Hector Neris, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly as his high leverage guys in the bullpen.
But Abreu ended those doubts in the postseason, pushing his way into the top tier of the bullpen by striking out 44.1% of the batters he faced in the playoffs, allowing only 8 baserunners in 11.1 innings and, most importantly, not allowing a run.
I kept commenting that with each postseason outing, Abreu’s massive shoulders kept getting bigger.
He has picked up in 2023 where he left off last Fall. Abreu has struck out 19 batters in 12.1 innings, good for a 41.3% strikeout rate. That rate is 7th best in baseball among Major League pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings so far this season.
The Saves in Atlanta and the “save” against the Blue Jays show that Dusty Baker now trusts Abreu, possibly more than another reliever other than closer Ryan Pressly. And when you consider the talent in the Astros bullpen—that’s a big compliment to Abreu’s skills.
How Far Abreu Has Come
Last October, Abreu seemed to be an overnight sensation—and like many overnight sensations, this one was years in the making.
Abreu first came on the radar for Astros fans when the front office placed Abreu on the 40-man roster after the 2018 season, preventing him from being exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Then at The Runner Sports, Brad Kyle speculated that Jeff Luhnow did this to keep the Orioles—who had just hired Mike Elias away from the Astros—from picking Abreu.
He’s still walking a lot of batters—13.0% of batters—but his ability to strike batters out has rendered that moot. His K-BB% is 28.3%, which is 14th best in the majors (10 IP minimum). Abreu had just had a breakout year in A ball—posting a 1.49 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 54.1 innings.
Abreu struggled though in 2019 with the issue that would plague him throughout his minor league years—control. Abreu walked 5.3 batters in 91.1 innings at A and AA. But his strikeout capabilities intrigued the Astros, who called him up for a cup of coffee in September. Abreu made the playoff roster for the ALCS against the Yankees, but only threw two-thirds of an inning.
But Abreu seemed poised for a bigger role with the big club in 2020, either in the bullpen or as a potential starting pitcher.1 He ended up in neither role. Abreu walked 7 and hit 2 of the 20 batters he faced in the early part of that season. He was quickly sent to the alternate site in Corpus Christi. He must not have thrown well down there, because he did not come up to the majors again for the rest of that season and was left off the postseason roster.
In 2021, Abreu made the opening day roster, but he struggled throughout the season, taxiing between Minute Maid Park and Sugar Land. When in downtown Houston, Abreu posted a 5.75 ERA in 36 innings, thanks in large part to walking 18 batters. He only struck out 36 batters.
In 2022, Abreu seemed to make the Opening Day roster due to the the lockout-caused expansion to a 28-man roster. An article at Climbing Tal’s Hill listed “3 Astros who won’t be on the roster by May 1.” And yes, Abreu was on it. Heck, Abreu got off to a shaky start in 2022, posting a 4.66 ERA in April.
Abreu finally broke out in May (15 Ks in 11 innings) and the prospect we had waited 5 seasons for finally turned into an overnight sensation.
How Abreu Does It
How is Abreu so effective? The simplest answer is that he has a great slider.
In 2022, Abreu threw his slider 448 times, which was 44% of his pitches. Opponents had a batting average of .163 on the the pitch and a slugging percentage of .220. They whiffed 51.3% of time he threw it. It was responsible for 63 strike outs.
In 2023, the slider is just as good. Abreu has thrown it more often—on 48.0% of his pitches. And opponents have managed only 1 single in 20 at bats—that’s a .150 batting average and slugging percentage. They have whiffed 48.0% of the time when Abreu throws it, with 11 strikeouts.
In both seasons, an opponent is more likely to strikeout on a slider from Abreu than hit it in fair territory.
Abreu’s slider is so good because he gets big movement on the pitch. He gets 4.9 more inches of vertical drop on his slider than the average slider thrown by a major league pitcher. He also gets 4.8 more inches of horizontal movement than the average major league slider. That combination is pretty rare.
The chart below comes from BaseballSavant.com, where Statcast Data is posted. It shows the slider movement for all MLB pitchers who have thrown 50 sliders so far this season. I have circled Abreu’s slider toward the bottom right. From this chart, you can see that only two pitchers have a slider with a greater combination of the horizontal and vertical drop than Abreu.
No wonder batters have so much difficulty hitting it.
The quality of Abreu’s slider help his fastball, which is a weaker pitch for him. Abreu tends to center his slider on the glove-side corner of the plate just above the knees (these pictures from the perspective of the catcher). You can see that in the chart from Baseball Savant below. And note how different the hot spot is for Abreu’s slider from that of his 4-sea fastball. That hot spot is arm side and high. So that’s the inside corner at the belt for a right handed hitter, and that contrasts from the slider headed to the outside corner at the knees.
Abreu’s biggest weakness is his control. He walked 10.5% of all hitters he faced last season and 13.0% of batters so far this season. You can see from the heat map that his control over his four-seam fastball is (literally) spotty. It’s not a tight pattern.
Abreu is less likely to throw a ball in the strike zone than the average pitcher. He throws the ball in the zone 44.1 percent of the time; the average major league pitcher does 48.5% of the time. Abreu throws a first pitch strike 50.0% of the time, less than the MLB average of 60.8%.
So if a batter can avoid swinging against Abreu, he is at the advantage.
But if Abreu can lure the batter into swinging, he gains the advantage. Batters only make contact on 73.2% of their swings against pitches from Abreu that are in the strike zone. And when batters chase out of the strike zone, they’re dead. The average major league hitter makes contact with 58.2% of pitches outside the strike zone. This season, they have made contact only 31.4% of the time the swing at an Abreu pitch that is out of the strike zone. Think that’s a fluke causes by the small sample sizes of the early season. Last season, the chase contact % for batters against Abreu was 33.5%.
Ascending a Strong Bullpen
That Abreu is not the #2 man in the Astros bullpen is not a small accomplishment, mostly because the rest of the bullpen is so strong. Over the last two offseasons, the Astros have signed Hector Neris and then Rafael Montero to sizeable free agent contracts, essentially to be the #2 man in the bullpen. Ryne Stanek was the setup man in 2021 and had a strong season in 2022. The front office traded their starting center fielder in 2021 to acquire Phil Maton—who has an ERA of 0.00 this season. The bullpen was the biggest strength of the team last October.
It’s a high bar to get over to surpass this set of quality relievers. That Bryan Abreu has done so is a testament to his skill as a pitcher. Relievers are inherently volatile, but with his big breaking slider, Abreu looks to be a candidate to overcome volatility over the long haul. He is a key man in the Astros bullpen for 2023 and beyond.
Jake Kaplan wrote an article in preparation for the pandemic shortened 2020 season headlined “The Three Pitching Prospects Most Likely to Contribute on the 2020 Astros.” The three were Abreu, Cristian Javier, and Enoli Parades. Well, two out of three isn’t bad for either 2020 contributions or future stardom in Houston.
Nice spotlight on Bryan, Brian! A gem the organization has always regarded highly, as the 40-man roster add back in '18 showed! Thanks for mentioning and linking my TRS piece! I'm amazed at how many "baby Astros" I highlighted 4 and 5 years ago are just NOW breaking through, but such is the nature of baseball...it takes some "simmering on the stove" for many players to reach their potential.
I also remember (besides Mike Elias) the "O-Stros," as I called them, also hired away the 'Stros' Director of Decision Sciences (!), Sig Mejdal, obviously trying to re-create the now-winning Astro blueprint over in Baltimore, at least in the analytics department!
I remember, in '18, Mejdal traveled the entire 'Stro minor league circuit, charged with the task of teaching/training the staffs and players on just how to TRANSLATE the meta-data from these vast troves of analytics onto the playing field! Unless and until THAT can be done, of course, no progress or adjustments can be made, and "those analytics" on which the Astros were hanging their winning rep, would just become pointless.