A Satisfying Series
Whether you call it a statement, a dismantling, a humiliation or an ass-kicking. the Astros domination of the Rangers was quite enjoyable to watch.
Did you enjoy the last three games in Arlington as much as I did? I’m going to bet that you did. What better way to cap it off than with this image.
Of course, it was more than just the Astros winning three straight games against the Rangers. And reporters used different terms to describe the magnitude of the Astros sweep.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today described it as a “loud statement.”
Evan Grant, longtime Rangers beat writer for the Dallas Morning News, described it as a “complete and total dismantling.”
Brian McTaggart of MLB.com said the Astros “absolutely humiliated the Rangers” in the “most lopsided three-game series I’ve seen in my 20 years on the [Astros] beat.”
Chandler Rome of The Athletic was more succinct. He said it was a “three-day ass kicking.”
Choose your fighter, I guess. But they’re all on the same side here. It was a beatdown. It was quite satisfying.
I started this blog because I wanted there to be more sophisticated analysis of the Astros on the internet. To apply the analytical perspectives I’ve reading my whole adult life to a team that was using those perspectives to become the best team in baseball.1
Those perspectives are not necessary to discuss this series. It was simple domination from the Astros from whatever perspective you want to offer.
The star was the offense, which hit 16 home runs over the three games in Arlington. That’s right, 16 home runs in 3 games. Wanna see them all again? The Astros put together a clip reel of them on their Twitter feed.
Jose Altuve hit 4 of them in 4 straight innings—the 9th on Monday and the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on Tuesday. With the home run he hit in the 6th inning on Monday, he hit 5 home runs in 6 at bats.
The pitching was effective enough. J.P. France had a rough start on Monday afternoon, giving up 5 runs in 5 innings, but the bullpen delivered 4 scoreless innings to allow the offense the ability to break out for a 13-6 win.
On Tuesday, Framber Valdez scattered 6 hits and 4 walks to give up only 1 run over 7 innings. On Wednesday, Justin Verlander was quite effective, striking out 6 and allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings.
But the Astros bashed the Rangers due to their bats. Overall, the team tallied 39 runs and 50 hits across the three games. The 16 homers and 50 hits are a record in a 3-game series. An MLB record. No team has ever hit that well over 3 games. Satisfying.
Do you know people who believe in the “10-run curse?” The idea that when the Astros score 10 runs, they have a bad offensive game the next game.
It’s is primarily an effect of what we notice. When the team scores a bunch of runs one day and then very few the next, we are more likely to notice is than when they score a bunch of runs one day and an average number the next. Our brains often search to find patterns when none exist.
I have friends on a text thread who love talking about the “10-run curse.” On both Tuesday and Wednesday night, I got to send this text to that group: “Tough night for the 10 run curse theory.” Sending those texts were satisfying.
Obviously, winning three games is a good thing. And winning three games in a statement/dismantling/humiliation/ass-kicking is very good for all our hearts and livers.
But winning and losing right now primarily matters for the Astros in their quest to win the AL West or to hold off another contending team to win a Wild Card.
The good news is that three wins over a direct rival for a playoff spot really helps in that effort.
The Astros now stand 3 games in front of the Rangers in the standings, but the Rangers big slump over the last month means they are not the Astros primary concern. The series loss bumped the Rangers a half a game below the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot. That means the Astros are 2 1/2 games clear of making the playoffs.
The Mariners won 2 of 3 in Cincinnati, which means the Astros have a 1 game lead in the AL West. Though it is important to note that the Mariners hold the tiebreaker over the Astros via a better record in head-to-head play.2 So that in essence gives the Mariners another half a game in the standings.
Overall, the Astros improved their odds of winning the AL West, which now stand at 67.4% according to Fangraphs. They also improved their odds of making the playoffs to 98.2%. Very satisfying.
At the end of June, I wrote that “it is a long haul to win the division race. To make up a five game deficit usually requires a long period of slightly better play than one’s opponent.”
I’ve continued to maintain that perspective throughout the two-plus months since. See for example on Monday, when I wrote “The task for the Astros over the next 24 games is to outplay the Mariners and the Rangers (and to a lesser extent the Blue Jays). The still have an excellent chance to win the AL West if play well over the next four weeks.”
The task is now to do that over 21 games and the good news is that they have now played well for three days of those four weeks. More is needed, and they still need to outplay the Mariners, who are nipping at their heels.
The good news when it comes to the team playing well over the next 21 games—they are a good team with lots of good players.
The bad news. It’s baseball. A win yesterday means nothing tomorrow. The AL West was turned upside down in August by a big Rangers slump and a big Mariners win streak. The Astros have been relative steady this season, but that doesn’t mean they can’t suffer a big losing skid—they did so in June.
But it also means they can go on a big win streak and take control of the division. Either is possible, even if neither is likely.
And regardless of what happens the rest of the season, we Astros fans have not had a more satisfying three games than we did this week in Arlington. The off day today gives us some extra time to enjoy them. I will find it satisfying.
Well, that and I needed a hobby during the pandemic and I wasn’t going to bake bread
The collective bargaining agreement signed last March ended the practice of having Game 163s to break ties. Boooo!
A great collection of four words to describe the game and sweep! Just 'cause it'll be fun, let me rank them: 4. statement 3. ass-kicking 2. humiliation 🥁-roll......1. A dismantling! Nice to put the Rangers in our rear-view mirror!