A Losing Sixth, for the First Time in Two and Half Years: A Third Sixth Report
A 6-13 stretch in the middle leads to a losing Sixth. This team will go as far as its pitching will take it, and the pitching slumped over the last 27 games.
It ended as it began, with the Astros winning three of four games. So that is good.
But in between, it was not good. In the 19 games between those three of four stretches, the Astros lost 13 of the 19 games they played.
Those 19 games were in the center of the third Sixth of the Astros season, and it led to a losing record for the Sixth.
For two and a half years, this blog has tracked the Astros performance in each Sixth of each season. And in every one of those 14 previous Sixths, I have gotten to report that the Astros had a winning record. I feel that statistic is important because it shows not only the quality, but the consistency of the Astros over the last two and a half season.
The good news is that the Astros two wins in St. Louis, capped off by the 14-0 beat down last night, are signs that the team is playing better. Between the overall quality of the team and the high level of play in St. Louis, one can reasonably hope that the worst is behind the Astros. But the future is unknown, and the level of difficulty quickly increases, as the Astros face the team with the largest run differential in baseball this season for four games this weekend.
Who is the culprit for the Astros first losing Sixth since 2020? One place I think most fans would start is with the offense. And there are good reasons why fans would think that—the Astros scored 2 or fewer runs in 11 of the 27 games of the Sixth. But I think that is misplaced. Thanks in large part to the 24 runs the team scored over the last two games in St. Louis, the Astros scored 133 runs in the Sixth, which is 4.93 per game. That is an improvement on the 4.51 per game the Astros had scored in the first two Sixths of the season.
The difference between this Sixth and previous ones was in run prevention. Entering the Sixth, the Astros had allowed 3.50 runs per game. The Astros may have been scoring runs at an average level, but they were elite at keeping the opponent off the scoreboard.
But not in the Third Sixth. The Astros allowed 132 runs in the 27 games of the Sixth, good for 4.89 runs per game. It’s nearly a run and a half more per game more than they had allowed earlier in the season.
Just before the third Sixth began, I wrote an article titled “A Pitching First Team.” It argued that the Astros were more reliant on their arms this season than they had been in previous years.
In the conclusion I wrote “Their pitching has carried them to a winning record so far this season ad the team will need their arms to carry the load throughout the rest of the season.” Needless to say that analysis proved prescient. The arms were not able to carry the load in the Third Sixth, and, as a result, the team lost more than it won.
As a reminder, here at the Orange Fire Substack, we divide the baseball season up into sixths. So just as how a business will talk about their revenues and expenditures in a quarterly report (i.e. each quarter of the year), here at Breathing Orange Fire, we'll talk about how the Astros are doing each sixth.
Each Sixth is 27 games, which is very close to a month. I use Sixths because it is easier to compare equal sections of the season—all Sixths are 27 games. And the math is easier. With three Sixths complete, the season is half over. So you can simply double Alex Bregman’s numbers—11 home runs and 49 RBI—and figure out what his pace is for the season—22 home runs and 98 RBIs. And that looks more productive than you thought throughout the first half of the season.
Overall Record: 43/44-37/38 (.531/.543)
Record This Sixth: 18-9 (.667)
On Pace for a Record of: 106-56
As noted, the Sixth started off promising, as the Astros won three of their first four games. Then, after a loss in the final game against the Angels, the Astros won an 11-1 laugher in Toronto.
Then the losing started. The team then lost four straight—three in Toronto and the 14-inning debacle in Cleveland. And that was not the worst losing streak of the Sixth. The Astros lost 5 straight at home, highlighted (or lowlighted) by a sweep by the emerging Reds.
The Astros have righted the ship since then, winning two of their three series since. It gives some hope the worst is behind us. One certainly hopes so.
Team Offense & MLB Rank.
R/G: 4.54 (13th). OBP: .316 (11th). SLG: .404 (15th). OPS: .721 (17th). OPS+: 98 (17th).
At this time last season, the Astros were 12th best in the majors in runs per game at 4.48.1 This year, they are at a similar spot at 13th best. But that is where the similarities end. The offense in 2022 was 5th in the majors in slugging and OPS and 4th in OPS+ after half a season.
This year, the offense ranks in the middle tier in every category listed above. When a team’s run scoring is below its on base and slugging rates, one can say they are unlucky, and thus, one can expect the run scoring numbers to rise over the long run. But when the team’s run scoring rate matches with its on base and slugging rates, one cannot say they have been unlucky.
Earlier this month, I wrote about the offensive slump this season, noting that “a lot more players have declined this season at the plate than have improved. In particular, the declines are concentrated among guys who are written into the everyday lineup.”
The good news is that the fact that the hitters usually hit better than this means they are likely to hit better in the second half of the season. But it would be really great if that regression to the mean happened sooner rather than later.
The hope also for the bats is that they get healthy. Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve were the team’s two best hitters in 2022. This year, they have only played in 12 games together. The Astros are 8-4 in those games. Hurry back, Yordan.
Team Pitching and MLB Rank
RA/G: 4.01 (6th). FIP: 3.98 (7th). WHIP: 1.26 (6th). K/9: 9.4 (6th). BB/9: 3.1 (11th)
Overall, the numbers for the pitching staff are quite good, positioned in the top seven of four of the stats listed above, only lagging behind in walks per nine innings.
But the pitching staff fell back this Sixth. As noted, they gave up more runs (5.08 runs per game), struck out fewer batters (8.4 per nine innings, 19th best in the majors since May 30), and walked more (3.7 per nine innings, 21st best in baseball). The Astros FIP was 4.62 over the third Sixth, indicating that the high number of runs allowed were not the result of bad luck. The pitching clearly slumped.
The starters had an ERA of 4.34 over the Sixth, while the relievers had an ERA 4.95, which is 24th best in the majors since May 30. Both components of the pitching staff contributed to the poor numbers on the mound.
Most likely, this is just a slump. Teams will have slumps at some point during the season, and it looks like this is the slump for the Astros pitching staff. They are not likely to perform this poorly again in any of the remaining three Sixths of the season. But it is vital that they do. As noted in the introduction, I wrote that this team will go as far as the pitching staff will carry it. This Sixth, the pitching staff carried the team to a losing record.
Team Fielding and MLB Rank
Fielding Runs Above Average 14 (7th). Defensive Runs Saved: 3 (16th). Ultimate Zone Rating: 8.7 (7th). Outs Above Average 9 (7th). Errors: 37 (7-T).
I wrote about the defensive slide earlier this week. In it, I noted that the Astros had been one the best defensive teams in the previous few seasons, but have slipped this season.
Another way to look at that is to show the defensive numbers for the Astros after three Sixths of the 2022 season. So below is a screenshot of the same defensive metrics after 81 games last year.
It shows the defensive decline in a like for like fashion. The team has 19 fewer Fielding Runs Above Average this season, 33 fewer Defensive Runs Saved, and 13 fewer Outs Above Average.
It is also worth noting the the Astros have made fewer errors this season than in 2022 to this point in the season. It is a reminder that defensive value exists primarily from range—the ability to get to more batted balls—than it does from being sure handed when you get to a ball.
Notable Player Performances
Yainer Diaz .317/321/.634 6 HR. .399 wOBA 159 wRC+
The playing time beneficiary of the Yordan Alvarez injury was Yainer Diaz. Diaz has started 15 of the 18 games the Astros have played since then, and he has responded with a breakout performance. Diaz walks very little—on 1.2% of plate appearances in the Sixth and 2.0% of plate appearances on the season—but his quick bat reduces strikeouts—16.7 in the Sixth; 18.% on the season, below the MLB average of 22.5%.
Cristian Javier 5 GS. 23.1 IP. 5.79 ERA. 4.86 FIP. 11 K. 9 BB.
The good news is that the bats scored 10 in each of Javier’s last two starts and the team won those games. The bad news, well, you’re looking at it. The most notable and worrisome number is the 11 strikeouts. Javier has averaged 10.5 K/9 in his career. He only struck out 4.24 per nine this last Sixth.
Phil Maton 14 G. 14.1 IP. 3.77 ERA. 13 H. 19 Ks. 7 BBs. Bryan Abreu 12 G. 11.2 IP. 3.86 ERA. 11 H. 15 Ks. 6 BBs.
A pair of bullpen stalwarts got hit mostly by the regression monster in the third Sixth. They came back to the back a bit during the last 27 games, in part because a few more hits got through and because their walk rate went up. But both struck out a high percentage of the hitters they faced. Neither had a decline in stuff.
Jose Abreu. 25 G. 107 ABs. 278/.308/.495. 337 wOBA 116 OPS+
Encouraging. Looks more like the player they thought they were getting when they signed him in the offseason.
Jeremy Pena 24 G. 104 ABs. .266/.337/.340 .302 wOBA 91 OPS+
Pena is usually a low OBP, high SLG player. In the third Sixth, he walked a little more than usual, producing a higher OBP than usual (.294 career OBP), but he had a power outage. He had only 5 extra base hits (4 doubles, 1 homer) in the sixth.
Their Place in the Race
Overall Record: 44-37 (.543)
2nd place. 5 games behind the Rangers. 1/2 game behind the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot.
Run Differential: +56
Expected Record: 46-35
At the beginning of the Sixth, the Astros were three games behind the Rangers. Fangraphs gave them a 47.5% of winning the division. Obviously, the losing Sixth has damaged the Astros chances of winning the division. I detailed this in a recent post.
Should we pay attention to the division race? This is likely futile, especially with the Astros beginning the second half of the season with a four game set at the Tractor Supply outlet in Arlington, but I think the answer to that is no.
Now I don’t think we should ignore it completely. Winning the AL West is a big prize both for bragging rights reasons and because the winning of the division will almost assuredly get a bye to the Division Series, increasing that team’s chances of winning a pennant and World Series.
But to win the AL West, the Astros need to play better, a lot better. They are currently on pace to win 88 games, and only in the feeble Central divisions would that win total be enough to win the division. The team needs to get better, hopefully by improving the level of the offense (possible) and ending the slump by the pitching staff (likely).
The other reason to pay less attention to the division race is that it is a long haul to win the division race. To make up a five game deficit usually requires a long period of slightly better play than one’s opponent. We saw this last year as the Astros made up a big deficit on the Yankees to win the top seed in the AL. But it took a while for that to happen.
That being said, I have this attitude for the next four days.
Scoring is up this season.