An Offensive Decline, but Especially From Key Every Day Players
More hitters have declined this season than have improved on their 2022 numbers. As a result, the offense is below average, and the team is wasting good pitching performances.
The Astros scored one run last night in a 2-1 loss to the Reds. It matched the single run they scored against the Nationals on Thursday night in a 4-1 loss in 10 innings.
Unfortunately, the Astros run scoring woes from the last two nights are not a fluke. They have scored 13 runs in their last 5 games (2.6 runs/game) and 32 runs in their last 10 games (3.2 runs/game), which goes back to the second game of the series in Toronto.
It’s a poor stretch for the offense, but again, it is not anomaly. The offense has been a drag on the team and its playoff hopes all season.
Across the 70 games the Astros have played this season, the team is averaging 4.4 runs per game, 16th best in the majors and below the league average 4.6 runs per game. The Astros have a team slash line of .245/.314/.397 for the season, and each component is below the league average line of .248/.320/.409.
Lots of Blame To Go Around
Who is to blame for the issues with the Astros bats this season? One simple answer is just about everybody.
The chart below shows the weighted Run Created+ for the 12 roster spots being used for offense.1 The second column lists a player’s wRC+ from 2022 and the right hand column is for their 2023 wRC+. For the three “new” players on the team—dubutante Corey Julks, free agent pickup Jose Abreu, & rookie Yainer Diaz), I matched them to the player on the 2022.
The stat weighted Runs Created + (wRC+) attempts t“quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it by runs.” The weighted part means that it is scaled so that 100 equals league average and each unit up or down from 100 is how much above or below league average the player is. The list is sorted by wRC+ in 2022.
I highlighted the roster spots where the wRC+ has gone up in orange. And I left in white the roster spots where wRC+ has gone down. As you can see, there is more white than orange. A lot more white than orange.
And this tells a big part of the story of the Astros offense in 2023. A lot more players have declined this season at the plate than have improved. In particular, the declines are concentrated among guys who are written into the everyday lineup. Alex Bregman has declined from being 36% better than a league average hitter to only 1% better.
Jose Altuve may be suffering from small sample size issues after being out for nearly two months with a broken thumb, but he has gone from being 64% better than league average to also only 1% better.
There are more modest declines from Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker on offense, but these small declines are compounded by the decline at first base. In 2022, Yuli Gurriel had a wRC+ of 85; Jose Abreu has one at 69. Not nice.
Even Martin Maldonado has declined at the plate. He had a 70 wRC+ in 2022; he’s at 56 so far this season.
And of course, losing Michael Brantley to a shoulder injury hurt the team in both the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023. Corey Julks has taken many of Uncle Mike’s PAs, but his is not as good of a hitter.
These declines, especially because they are concentrated among players who are written into the everyday lineup, have overwhelmed the places where the four roster spots where the Astros have seen an improvement at the plate.
There is a big jump at backup catcher. Jason Castro could not hit last season, but Yainer Diaz can.
There is another big jump from the performance of both Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon. Both had terrible years at the plate in 2022, but improvements in 2023 have brought them right around league average. With the excellent defense of both of these players, they have turned into big contributors to the 2023 squad.2
Chas McCormick has made a more modest improvement but he came from a higher floor. McCormick’s wRC+ in 2022 was 114; this year it is 119.
Overall the team has a 98 wRC+ in 2023, down from 112 in 2022.
Frustration and Regression to the Mean
There are two reactions I think that one can have to looking at this numbers. The first is probably the one you had on Thursday night watching the offense and again on Friday night—total frustration. The offense is keeping the team from winning games, especially games like the last two nights where excellent pitching performances are wasted.
And if you had the feeling, well, so did I. So did most Astros fans, I’m pretty sure. Score just three runs in each of the last two games and the Astros would have two more wins. It was frustrating, and you might have stronger adjectives than that.
But in the spirit of balance—both in the journalistic and spiritual sense—I will offer an optimistic perspective. If a player’s stats are not close to their projections and career numbers, then they are likely to regress to the mean. Which, in the case of hitters like Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Jose Abreu, means they are likely to increase over the long haul of the season. Improvement from these batters—who not only play every day but also hit in key spots in the order—would go a long way to getting the Astros to an above average offense.
Let’s hope it happens sooner rather than later.
Sorry Cesar Salazar and your 18 plate appearances, but not sorry.
Both have a bWAR of 1.5, tied for 5th best on the team.