Will the Astros Trade Framber Valdez?

The importance of 2024 makes it unlikely the Astros trade a star this offseason. But Framber's volatility and value makes make him the best trade candidate on the roster.

Astros General Manager Dane Brown has shut down rumors that the Astros are considering trading Alex Bregman (“We need Bregman. He’s a pillar for this club. So we’re not entertaining trading Bregman at all). He also shut down rumors that the team was shopping center fielder Jake Meyers (“We’re going to give Meyers a chance to play every day”).

But Brown has not shut down rumors that the Astros might trade Framber Valdez.

To be fair to Brown, the rumors about Valdez are not really much. Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this month that two teams are “monitoring the possibility of the Astros trading Valdez” and Bob Nightengale reported that “the Astros don’t plan to trade co-ace Framber Valdez, at least not this winter, but they are listening.”

The reports don’t say the Astros are doing anything—other teams are. There is no indication that the Astros are thinking of trading Valdez. But, the possibility exists, and the front office has not commented on them.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic examined the question of whether the front office should consider trading Valdez early in the offseason, writing “moving Valdez would afford the financial flexibility Brown does not currently have and, perhaps, bring players back who can address the team’s immediate needs.”

Financial flexibility in this case means room to maneuver under the luxury tax threshold of $237 million—”allowing Brown to exceed the luxury tax this winter could render this entire conversation moot” wrote Rome in that same article.

That room under the threshold would actually mean more in the 2025 season. Trading Valdez would allow the team to re-sign both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman to extensions and stay under the budget Jim Crane has likely imposed on Brown.

But trading Valdez would almost certainly hurt the chances of the team in 2024, and that team is a strong contender for another World Series title. It makes such a trade unlikley.

In this article, I explore why a trade of Valdez is unlikely but not impossible. In particular, I make an argument for why there may be good baseball reasons to trade him now, even if I do not think such a trade will happen.

2024 Is Still Important

Discussing a potential Valdez trade at Just Baseball, Leo Morgenstern wrote, “If, indeed, the Astros are trying to win – and why shouldn’t they be? – there is simply nothing to gain from trading Framber Valdez.” That article is succinctly headlined “Why on Earth Would the Astros Trade Framber Valdez?”

And Morgenstern’s logic is sound. What I wrote about why the Astros did not trade Bregman also applies to trading Valdez:

“The Astros are built to win in 2024—they are a veteran team with lots of good players who were but one game away from another World Series trip in 2023…It would thus be hard to construct a trade that would send out [Valdez] and get as much value for 2024 for the Astros as they send out. It would not surprise me if other teams inquired about [Valdez’s] availability, but none with a deal that made sense for the 2024 Astros.”

Nothing has changed about the importance of 2024 in the two weeks since I wrote that (or the week since Morgenstern wrote his article). The team is still among the best in baseball and the front office made moves to prioritize 2024 over the future at the 2023 trade deadline.

In short, a team that is prioritizing 2024 should be reluctant to trade a player with great value in that season such as Valdez.

Trading a Year Too Early Rather Than a Year Too Late?

While there is a clear and obvious logic to keeping Valdez, there is a logic to trading him this offseason. That logic is that the front office thinks that he will not produce as much value for the Astros as he will bring back in a trade.

One way this could happen is if Valdez suffers a major arm injury. Valdez has proven to be a durable starter. His 399.1 innings pitched are the fifth most in baseball since the start of the 2022 season. His only IL stint came from a broken finger. One might conclude that means Valdez will continue to have a healthy arm. And one may conclude that Valdez—like all pitchers—is due for an arm injury. If the front office thinks he’s due, they might want to trade in on his value—and his reputation for health—now.

Of course, that’s just scared thinking—assuming bad things will happen because they have not yet happened. A more realistic reason why the Astros might think about trading Valdez is that they are worried that the pitch clock—which will speed up even more next year—has interrupted his process for dealing with bad moments and back luck and thus, the pitch clock has permanently diminished Valdez’s effectiveness.

It is difficult to evaluate this argument because it relies on lots of information we do not know on the outside. What adjustments did the Astros coaches and Valdez’s sports psychologist Andy Nunez make to speed the “Breathe. Smile. Relax” mantra Valdez used before the pitch clock? Did Valdez resist these adjustments or have difficulty making them? How reliant is Valdez on Martin Maldonado—now with the White Sox—to make such adjustments?

What we do know is that Valdez struggled in the second half of the season—posting a 4.66 ERA after the All Star Break as his walk rate increased to 3.2 per nine innings and his home run rate increased. Of course, that was after an excellent first half of the season, in which Valdez had a 2.51 ERA in 17 starts. And Valdez’s problems were primarily in the month of July—he gave up a 17 earned runs in 21 innings that month. He ERA returned to below 4.00 in both August and September and his OPS allowed was below league average in both months.

That’s could be viewed as public evidence that Valdez couldn’t adjust to the pitch clock, but it’s pretty weak evidence in my opinion. It’s more likely he just had a bad month.

But the front office has more information and insight into this question than we do on the outside, so they may think it best to consider a deal now.

Branch Rickey had an aphorism that it is better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late, and that might be the front office’s thinking on Valdez.

It is unlikely that the Astros will trade Framber Valdez because the team has prioritized winning in 2024, but it is not out of the question.

Trading Valdez May Allow for Extension to Both Altuve and Bregman

The other reason to consider trading Valdez is based on the team’s payroll. As I noted recently, the Astros lack the space under the luxury tax threshold to sign both Bregman and Jose Altuve to extensions. Both Bregman’s and Altuve’s contracts expire after the 2024 season.

The front office may prefer to re-sign both Bregman and Altuve and have Valdez as their third (or higher) priority. Valdez will be arbitration eligible in 2025 and is likely to make between $15 and $20 million. That amount would allow the front office to stay under the luxury tax while retaining Altuve and Bregman. Valdez would have the highest trade value of these three players, as he is under contract for two more seasons.

Obviously, Jim Crane does not have to keep the budget at the luxury tax threshold. Today, Rome suggested a “New Year’s resolution” for Crane to “step out of your comfort zone” when it comes to the team’s payroll and willingness to sign players to long-term contracts.

But Rome’s wording is instructive. Crane’s spending patterns are well-established at this point, and he would have to change them to retain all three of Bregman, Altuve, and Valdez.

And if Crane does not provide the budget space to retain all three, a trade is possible. And a trade of Valdez would make the most sense of these three.

In the end, I don’t think such a trade is likely. As noted, 2024 is a big season for the Astros and they are strong contenders to win the division, the pennant, and the World Series again. For that reason, I would be surprised if the Astros traded Valdez, but I wouldn’t be shocked.