Why the Impending Free Agency of Alex Bregman Feels More Ominous Than Those of Previous Golden Era Astros

1. The window is closer to closing. 2. It's not clear who will replace him at third base. 3. If Altuve is the face of the franchise, then Bregman is the voice.

In the fourth inning of Wednesday’s game, Joe Espada pulled Alex Bregman from a meaningless tilt. But that moment was not meaningless.

Bregman, who has won the AL West and gone to the American League Championship Series in every full season of his career, is a free agent at the end of the season. The Minute Maid Park crowd gave Bregman a long and loud ovation, realizing this might be the last regular season game Bregman plays at home in the Orange and Blue.

Golden Era Astros fans are no strangers to seeing star players play a final game at Minute Maid Park. Dallas Keuchel left after the 2018 season; Gerrit Cole after 2019; George Springer after the 2020; Carlos Correa after 2021; and Justin Verlander after 2022, though he obviously returned soon after.

At some level, Wednesday’s potential farewell to Bregman should be old hat to Astros fans. Players reach free agency and those that the team has not signed to a contract—particular those whose market rate calls for the long-term contract that Jim Crane has been unwilling to sign—go elsewhere.

Despite this, the Bregman farewell felt more ominous for me than those of previous Astros. I think there are three reasons for this and I’ll detail those here.

The End is Nearer

The Astros have now been in the playoffs for 8 straight seasons, having won the AL West in 7 of them. Only three teams in baseball history have a longer streak of reaching the postseason.

We Astro fans have watched one of the most impressive streaks of high quality baseball any fanbase has ever seen. But the fact that so few team historically can match the Astros is an indication of how hard it is to sustain such winning for so long. And that it will be hard to do so in the future.

In August, I looked at the Fangraphs Top 50 Trade Value list, which only featured 1 Astros and concluded that it was “a sign that the window of contention may not be open for much longer.”

The young stars on this team are not as good as the young stars from previous iterations of the golden era Astros. And thus, the possibility of losing a star player in Bregman is another sign we are closer to the end than the beginning.

No Clear Replacement for Bregman

When Springer left after 2020, his role on the team—star outfielder—was taken over by Kyle Tucker, who had finally broken out into a quality regular in the shortened 2020 season. When Correa left after 2021, the Astros installed Jeremy Pena, their top prospect as the everyday shortstop.

The Astros will replace Bregman with—well, it’s not clear. The team’s top prospect—Jacob Melton is an outfielder. Zach DeZenzo is the team’s #5 prospect according to MLB Pipeline and a third baseman, but he did not look ready to take over an every day job in his major league cup of coffee. Brice Matthews was the team’s #1 pick last season, and could change positions, but still likely needs more minor league seasoning.

In short, it is not clear there is an internal replacement for Bregman, or at least not one who looks like a quality regular. The team may have to acquire its 2025 third baseman by either a trade or signing a free agent (Bregman is available there).

The Astros have had success at replacing other free agents they have lost with internal options who were not highly thought of as prospects. The team essentially replaced Cole with Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, both of whom exceeded expectations as after entering the rotation in 2020. And both were star players on the 2022 World Series winners.

The hope for the Astros is that they can pull another rabbit out of their hat and turn a less well regarded prospect—Dezenzo or Matthews or Shay Whitcomb—into a high quality regular.

But as of now, it’s hard to expect much production from third base for the 2025 Astros.

It will be difficult for the Astros to replace Alex Bregman as a third baseman and as the team’s voice if he signs elsewhere as a free agent.

The Voice of the Astros

The trite expression is that each team has a “face of the franchise.” And if that is the case, then Jose Altuve—who signed an extension in Spring Training—is the face of the Golden Era Astros.

But if Altuve is the face, then Bregman—who has been to the ALCS every full season of his career—may be considered the voice of the Astros. Altuve is not a vocal player, preferring to lead by example. The next time Altuve gives a controversial quote or fails to compliment his opponent will be the first time.

Bregman has a different attitude, often making brash statements, posting memes to social media, and heck, carrying his bat to first base after a World Series home run. Let’s face it. If Bregman were on another team, you’d hate him.

But he’s our brash guy. He’s our team’s voice. He’s our team’s salsa salesman.

And not just with the media. This season Bregman, who seems to have thought only about baseball his entire life, has turned into a trusted confidant and strategist for the team’s pitching staff. He helped convince Hunter Brown to throw a sinker, which was the key to turning Brown’s season around. He seems to talk more than the catcher at meetings at the mound.

Can others play those role if Bregman moves on after this season? Someone will have to; it’s the logic of baseball. Players move on an young players step up as they become older players.

This has happened before and it will happen again. But that it might be happening to Alex Bregman at this point in the Golden Era Astros run is worth noting. His leaving in free agency—if it happens—will mean more than when previous Astros left.