Who's In The Playoff Lineup and Who is Fighting to Get In It?
Aledmys Diaz returns from the IL today. He, Trey Mancini and Yuli Gurriel will battle the rest of the season for the last two spots in the playoff lineup.
So who is in the lineup for the Astros?
Today, the team is expected to activate Aledmys Diaz from the IL, and will presumably send down one of their lesser used players. This will add another capable major league player, one with an OPS+ of 104 on the season to the roster, in place of a player with the skill level of a AAA player. That is a good thing.
But it raises the question of who will be in the lineup on an every day basis. The team’s trade deadline moves were made to raise the floor of the team, adding solid players to strengthen the depth of the team. '
And that creates something of a logjam with the lineup, especially now that Diaz has returned to the active roster. To get a handle on who plays (and who might sit), I created the chart below, which looks at the number of games each player on the roster has started since August 3. That’s the first day manager Dusty Baker included new acquisitions Trey Mancini and Christian Vazquez in his starting lineup.
The chart is sorted from most games played to the least. I also included two other columns—one for the 23 games that have happened since Aledmys Diaz went on the IL on August 17, and one for the 13 games that happened between the trade deadline and Diaz’s trip to the IL.
Based on this chart, I was able to make the following observations about the Astros lineup:
The team has 5 regulars, who play just about every day—Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Yuli Gurriel, and Kyle Tucker.
Yordan Alvarez has started in only 28 of the last 35 games, but he was out for 5 straight days from August 28 to September 3 nursing a sore hand. He has started 8 straight games since then, so we can include him in the regulars. That’s 6 lineup spots taken.
Trey Mancini has been an everyday player since Diaz went on the IL. He has played in 21 of the 23 games since then. But before that, he wasn’t. Dusty put Mancini in the lineup in only 8 of the 13 games when Diaz was on the active roster. It’s an open question as to whether he will be in the everyday lineup for the rest of the season, or in the playoffs.
The catching duties are being shared, with Maldonado starting just over half of the games. But the ratio of Vazquez’s starts has increased over the last 3 weeks. Is Dusty prepping Vazquez to be more familiar with the pitching staff to take over in the playoffs? Or just getting Maldonado more rest?
The demotion of Jake Meyers has simplified the center field situation. The team has two centerfielders in McCormick and Dubon. McCormick has started 8 games in center field since Meyers was demoted; Dubon has started 4.
Aledmys Diaz started 9 of the 13 games the team played before he went on the IL. So that is a similar ratio to Trey Mancini during that time period.
David Hensley, JJ Matijevic, and Yainer Diaz play very little. One of those three will be demoted to make room for Aledmys Diaz, though neither of the other two will play much.
Based on how they have divided up playing time over the last 36 games, we can make some conclusions about the playoff lineup. There are regulars at 2B, 3B, SS, and RF. There are job shares at C and CF that should continue through the regular season, and might continue in October. And we know that Yordan Alvarez will be in the lineup.
Two Spots, Three Candidates for the Playoff Lineup
That leaves two playoff lineup spots to be determined over the last 21 games of the season, and it will be a contest between three men—Yuli Gurriel, Trey Mancini, and Aledmys Diaz.
By one measure—time in the lineup—Yuli should be a lock for the playoffs. He has played in 32 of the last 36 games. By another—his play when in the lineup—he should be a part-timer. On July 30, I wrote a post titled “Yuli Gurriel Has Declined And Should Be Moved to the Bench.” Since then, Gurriel has not provided evidence that I was wrong. He has slashed .250/.261/.293.
Mancini is the best offensive player of the trio, having batted .256/336/.412 on the season, but is the weakest defender, especially if he is put into left field. He is best suited for the small left field in Minute Maid Park, and would be replaced defensively.
Diaz has hit .252/.303/417 on the season and has played positive defense in left field when he has appeared in the outfield (1 Defensive Run Saved; 1 Out Above Average). He could play more spelling each of the infielders over the last few weeks of the season.
Two of these players will be in the starting lineup when the American League Division Series begins on October 11. The last 3 weeks of the season may determine who those two will be.