Solid, but Not Spectacular Additions: A Trade Deadline Review
The Astros added three players who address specific weaknesses on the 26-man roster, giving up little to do so. A helpful set of moves by James Click and the front office.
To me, the story of the Astros trade deadline was not told by the headlines that heralded the new additions to the team. The story was told by the agate type on the transactions page. There, you can find who left the 26-man roster to make room for the trade deadline acquisitions.
Matijevic and Lee should have futures on the Astros active roster, possibly on Opening Day of the 2023 season, but the Astros are playing for 2022. They are nearly assured of another AL West crown and ticket to the second round of the playoffs. And they improved their active roster by replacing these two players with Trey Mancini and Christian Vazquez.
But if one’s impression of the trade deadline is about who got sent down to AAA, then the acquisitions themselves are not huge additions. Mancini and Vazquez are both rentals, as each will be a free agent after the season.1 Will Smith, who the Astros picked up in exchange for Jake Odorizzi, also has an (essentially) expiring contract. None are likely to be long-term additions, and each can be a contributor to the Astros.
But contributors are not stars. This isn’t the Justin Verlander or Zack Greinke addition. The fundamental level of this team has not changed as a result of the trade deadline. But that fundamental level is very high. The team as constituted is on pace to win 103 games this season before upgrades at 1B/OF and C.
That being said, the additions of Mancini and Vazquez are helpful, and the Astros gave up little in terms of prospect capital that they cannot replace at a later date. None of these trades hurt, which is how it should be when you make modest rental upgrades.
But could they have done more? There was one trade that was made on Tuesday that got my attention as one the Astros could potentially have made to address a weakness and had a framework that could have worked for the Astros. It’s a missed opportunity.
I will address each of the three trades the Astros made on Monday individually, discussing the potential for each of the additions in comparison to the cost of what the team gave up. I’ll also address the deal they could have and should have made at the end.
Trey Mancini and Jayden Murray for Jose Siri and Chayce McDermott
Trey Mancini hits the ball, and he hits it hard. His maximum exit velocity on a ball hit this year is at the 81st percentile in baseball, and he’s been over the 90th percentile in each of the last four full seasons. Manicini has an xwOBA of .347, which is at the 82nd percentile. Mancini’s power comes with good, though not great, plate skills. His walk (54th percentile) and strikeout percentage (49th percentile) rank near league average.
But Minute Maid Park may be an particularly good park for Mancini. A Baseball Prospectus story by Robert Orr last month noted that Mancini was “in the 79th percentile of the league in pulled flies & line drives…He’s doing the right things and he’s going unrewarded for it, but that could dramatically change at another venue.” Mancini’s venue has changed to one where the Crawford Boxes are quite close and much easier to reach by a right handed pull hitter than his previous home of Camden Yards.
In exchange, the Astros gave up Chayce McDermott, their 4th round pick in 2021. He is striking out a ton of batters at Hi-A Asheville (14.3 per 9 IP), and also walking a ton of batters (5.4 per 9 IP). If he can throw strikes, he could develop. But that’s a big if.
The Astros also gave up Jose Siri. I’m pretty sure I’m more favorable to Siri than most of Astros Twitter, as I see his high level defense as providing tons of value. The question is how much his poor strike zone judgment (33.7% strikeout rate in 199 big league plate appearances) will limit him. But getting value from a player they initially acquired as a minor league free agent is a win for James Click’s front office.
Christian Vazquez for Emmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu
Who is the Astros catcher? If the priority is on offensive production and analytic defensive numbers, it should be the newly acquired Vazquez. If we go by familiarity and trust of the pitching staff, then it is Maldonado.
Let’s start with Vazquez’s bat—he is slashing .282/.327/432 on the season for a 110 OPS+. It’s 9th best among major league catchers in 2022 (minimum 200 PAs). With a bat in his hands, Vazquez has a high contact (81st percentile K%), low walk (17th percentile BB%), low power (24th percentile hard hit%) profile. His contributions come primarily from a high batting average.
His defensive metrics look good, as Vazquez is credited with 6 defensive runs saved this season, though his framing metrics is league average (47th percentile). These numbers are better than Maldonado’s this season (-3 DRS; 37th percentile framing).
But Maldonado starts not because of what we can quantify, but what we cannot. Maldonado is praised for shepherding the Astros pitching staff, especially with the set of young Latin pitchers on the team. Can Vazquez earn enough trust from those pitchers (and from Dusty Baker) to take over as the number one catcher? We shall see.
But the Astros gave up a pair of low ranked prospects for Vazquez. Valdez, in particular, is having a strong season in 2022, but 1) scouts still have tons of questions on whether that will translate against better pitching, and 2) seems blocked as a utility man in Houston (c.f. Josh Rojas, Abraham Toro).
Overall, the trade is a win, but how much of a win is a question.
Will Smith for Jake Odorizzi
This trade has implications for the 2022 team, and, I am going to argue, the 2023 team.
Let’s start with 2022. This trade is primarily about October. Jake Odorizzi is unlikely to pitch in October unless a series of injuries occurs to the pitching staff. With Lance McCullers close to returning to the rotation and Hunter Brown looking ready in Sugar Land, Click saw Odorizzi as surplus.
For that surplus, he acquired a player who could play a role in October, especially against Yankee left handers like Anthony Rizzo and Andrew Benintendi. To do that, Smith will need to improve from what he has shown so far this season, where he has walked about 1 in every 8 batters than he has faced. But even with those struggles, left handed hitters are slashing .214/.279/.393 against Smith, for an OPS of .672.
What implications does the trade have for 2023? They are financial. The Astros owed Odorizzi a buyout for $6.25 million if Odorizzi declined a player option for next season.2 Smith has a bigger contract for 2022, but a smaller buyout on his club option ($1 million). By trading Odorizzi for Smith the Astros moved money $5.25 million off of their CBT payroll in 2023.
The team is well below the CBT threshold this season, but with the payroll increasing in 2023, they will get closer to the that threshold. Saving some money on their CBT may make it easier to sign a free agent this off-season, especially if they are looking to re-sign Justin Verlander.
Summing Up the Trades They Made
Putting these three trades together, you see that the Astros were able to strengthen their big league roster by adding two quality bats. They lengthened their lineup and increased the flexibility of their big league roster. They can rest more of their big players over the next two months with less drop-off at the plate. And they can use their bench more aggressively in late innings—or frankly in the middle innings.
This was not a spectacular trade deadline for the Astros, but it was definitely a solid one. Especially when you consider how little they gave up.
The Trade They Could Have (or Should) Have Made—Harrison Bader
There was one trade that happened at the deadline that caught my attention because it was a player the Astros could have used and he moved at a price that they might have been able to meet. And that is Harrison Bader.
Bader is one of the handful of best defensive center fielders in baseball and he has shown a league average bat. Imagine Jose Siri’s defense with Chas McCormick’s bat—that’s Bader. He would have upgraded the Astros center field situation.
The Cardinals traded him to the Yankees for starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery. The Cardinals made this trade because they have a surplus of outfielders but are in desperate need of starting pitching. The Astros seemed to be a potential matchup with the Cardinals. When rumors dropped that the Astros were considering dealing from their surplus of young starting pitching, the Cardinals were the team I immediately thought of as a match. Maybe they would trade Dylan Carlson for Luis Garcia? Or maybe they would trade Bader for Jose Urquidy.
Well, the Cardinals traded Bader, but not for Urquidy. It leaves me with the question of whether the Astros and Cardinals discussed such a deal, and whether the Cardinals had the option of acquiring Montgomery or Urquidy and chose Montgomery.3 Obviously, I don’t know the answers to those questions and don’t know if we will ever learn them.
But that is the one the one trade I winced at when I saw it. It could have been the Astros. And maybe it should have been.4
Mancini has a mutual option for 2023, but those rarely get picked up. Usually either the player or the team think the contract does not work for them.
I am assuming that Odorizzi has (or soon will) meet all of the incentives in his contract that increase his 2023 option and buyout, but details on these incentives have been sketchy.
Perhaps the Cardinals chose poorly to the Astros benefit.
Worth noting. Bader is currently on the injured list with plantar fasciitis and in a walking boot. He is expected back in September. So it’s possible the injury scared off Jamcs Click. Again, all speculation on my part.