Urgency and Balance in the Chase for the AL West Crown
Several Astros fans--myself included--have pushed for Dusty Baker to be more urgent in his decision making. I consider the increased need for urgency and how that is balanced against the long-term.
How should Dusty Baker and his coaches approach their decision making as they try to chase down the Rangers for the AL West title?
One theme that has emerged about several different issues and from several different corners of Astros Twitter has been a need for more urgency.
For example, friend of the Substack Ben Dubose has proposed what is I think the most radical push for the Astros to be urgent—having Yordan Alvarez skip his rehab assignment in Sugar Land and go directly to the Astros lineup.
Another friend of the Substack Aidan Resnick has been advocating for the Astros to adjust their rotation so that their best pitchers are lined up to face the Rangers. Before the series in Arlington back in early July, Resnick noted that the Rangers had adjusted their rotation so that their best pitchers would face the Astros; the Astros did not reciprocate.
Resnick has continued his recommendation that the Astros re-jigger their rotation to maximize their chances in the upcoming series with the Rangers.
And I have participated in the discourse urging more urgency from Dusty Baker and the dugout brain trust. On Thursday night, nursing a one-run lead against the A’s, Dusty sent J.P. France out to start the bottom on the eighth inning, rather than go to one of his high leverage relievers. I did not agree with this decision.
Three different Astros fans. Three different items. But these takes all have one thing in common—urging Dusty Baker to act with more urgency to win an individual game.
And takes from Astros Twitter have suggested urgency in other matters—pinch hitting more in platoon situations or when Martin Maldonado bats and the team is trailing; for the front office to make a trade now, rather than waiting for the August 1 deadline; calling up John Singleton over Bligh Madris, etc., etc.
At root, each of these arguments is about urgency—the need to put more emphasis on the present, and, therefore, less on the future. In short, each of these takes say that the Astros need to do things to try to win more games now.
Or do they?
Baseball seasons are long slogs, and, over the course of my lifetime, teams grown to more and and more prioritize rest—or to use the NBA term, load management. It is more common today for everyday players get scheduled off days that allow them to get a mental and physical break from the grind of the baseball season.
This is most especially true for starting pitchers, as teams have become more and more conscious of the idea of innings limits, both across the season and as a tactical advantage inside the game itself (e.g., paying attention to the third time through the order penalty).
The Astros have worked to do this when possible, essentially skipping a turn for Hunter Brown via the All Star Break and by using a 6-man rotation during their long stretch without an off-day in June. The Astros have tried to prioritize the long-term, especially with their starting pitchers, despite trailing the Rangers in the AL West pretty much all season.
The decision to play for the long term also can have psychological benefits. Instead of increasing the tension for any one game, playing for the long term sets a team mood that no one game is important than any other and each should be approached with a business-like attitude.
Does this work for the Astros? I think so, but it is hard to tell. I usually don’t have a lot of opinions on the team’s mood and what goes on in the clubhouse because 1) we don’t have really good information on that, and 2) even if we did, I don’t know what to do with it; I’m not trained in psychology.
I just know that “no panic, no anxiety” is the mood that Dusty Baker has struck in the Astros clubhouse, and in pretty much all of the clubhouses he has run in baseball. His ability to get players to reduce drama and pull together toward the same goal is a big reason he has won so many games as a manager. Heck it’s why he keeps getting hired as a manager.
The third benefit of focusing on the long-term is that baseball plays out over the long term. No team wins the division in one game, and the Astros cannot come back and catch the Rangers in one game. The Astros have to play better than the Rangers over the next 62 games to win the division.
And of course, because this is baseball, teams have hot streaks and cold streaks. And, just as importantly, teams that are good still lose a fair share of games. A team can absorb a loss, even if it sucks to watch it.
Balance and Baseball
On of my overriding thoughts about life is that there is a need for balance. Should you enjoy an alcoholic drink? Sure, but keep it in moderation. Should you eat good food? Yes, but not too much of it. Focus on work? Sure, but not to the point of ignoring other important things in life.
And obviously, context matters here as well. You can enjoy a nightcap, but don’t drink first thing in the morning. You should ramp up focus on work when a big deadline approaches, but take some time off immediately after to enjoy yourself.
These thoughts apply to baseball as well. Managers need to balance out the need to win today’s game over the need to win over the long haul. It makes sense to hold back an ailing player or to limit the innings of a pitcher early in the season to keep them healthy and effective for the back half of the season. But they also need to win games early in the season—they count too.
A Different Context in the Second Half of 2023
In previous seasons, the Astros have been able to treat the second half of the season essentially as extended Spring Training. They had locked up the AL West early and needed to avoid total collapse to get to the playoffs.
This season is different, as the Astros trail the Rangers in the AL West and need to find off the Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, and Angels for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. One thing that was driving my thinking about bullpen usage on Friday night—and I would assume is also driving Resnick and DuBose’s push for urgency—is that the games in the second half of the 2023 season are more important than those in previous seasons.
I wanted Bryan Abreu to start the 8th inning because the Astros needed to win that game and it seemed clear to me that getting six outs from the top arms in the bullpen was the best strategy to win that game.
I thought it was an appropriate time to push for a win. The need for balance still exists—the team still has 62 games remaining in the season and the need to win a bunch of them, both now in July but later in September to run down the Rangers.
And that is still a long-term proposition. In my Third Sixth report, written at the dawn of a four game series in Arlington, I wrote that “it is a long haul to win the division race. To make up a five game deficit usually requires a long period of slightly better play than one’s opponent.”
Over the next 19 games, the Astros have made up 2 games on the Rangers. If they keep that pace up for the rest of the season, they will pass the Rangers permanently in early September.
There is a need for balance and to think about the long term, even if that balance is more tilted to winning today’s game this season.
Urgency Against the Rangers
I write this on the eve of the Astros facing off against the Rangers for three games at Minute Maid Park. These games are of course important, and not just because they are league games. Winning the series would allow the Astros to make up ground on the Rangers in the division. And there is an extra reason to win games against the Rangers. The team that wins the season series between the two will hold the tiebreaker if both teams finish the season with the same record, which is a distinct possibility.
The balance in these games shifts toward urgency. It is more important to win these three games than the three they will play with the Rays afterwards.
But the need for balance does not go away. Even in the best case scenario, the Astros will have to outplay the Rangers over the final 59 games of the season to win the division. The have to do that regardless of the outcome of this series.
Urgency is more important this season than in previous seasons. Urgency is more important in this upcoming series than in previous or upcoming series. Yet, there needs to be balance too.