Trade Deadline Big Picture Issue #3: Who's Making the Decisions in the Front Office
It's an open question of how much Jim Crane will drive the team’s decisions at the deadline. I hope Dana Brown and the baseball operations will make the decisions, but skepticism is warranted.
At the 2023 trade deadline, the Astros acquired Justin Verlander from the Mets, trading their top two prospects and getting their Game 1 starter for the playoffs.
After the season, Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote that “Anyone who watched the team’s trade deadline understands Crane engineered the deal for Justin Verlander.”
In November, the Astros hired Joe Espada to be their new manager. I noted that Dana Brown hosted “the news conference introducing Espada without Crane being present….It gave the impression that Brown had gained significant power in the Astros front office—the decision to hire Espada appeared to be his and his alone.”
These two decisions—coming only a few months apart—highlight a key tension in the Astros decision making process: it is unclear which decision makers make the actual decisions. Is Crane the primary driver of the team’s player acquisitions, or is it his general manager?
In some cases, it is clear who is making the final decision. On financial matters, the key decisions are made by Crane. That is business as usual in major league front offices, as owners approve the team budgets and any overages. It’s not clear who recommended that the Astros pursue Josh Hader, but in the end, Crane was the key decision maker on that move because Hader’s contract pushed the Astros payroll to an new team high (including luxury tax payments), cutting into Crane’s profits.
Similarly, Crane had to sign off on releasing Jose Abreu because he is the one paying Abreu not to play baseball.
On less prominent matters, it is clear that Brown and the baseball operations department has the most influence. The Astros have sorted through a large number of potential bullpen arms this season in an effort to find low cost replacements for Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton in the middle of their bullpen. This seems an initiative driven by Brown and his scouts.
The team promoted Gavin Dickey to Assistant General Manager and Scouting Director last Fall and Cam Pendino to Director of Player Evaluation last Fall, moves which seem to driven by Brown. There is little indication that Crane is having much influence on the minor leagues or the player development system in general.
If it’s a small move, it’s undoubtedly driven by Brown. If it’s a financial move, it has to be decided by Crane.
But the trade deadline is in between those two things. Certainly, as I covered on Monday, there are financial implications to the trade deadline. The Astros will need to take on new salary and pay more in luxury tax. Crane may well set a payroll limit, which is the way it works when you pay the bills and reap the profits.
There are also minor league and player development implications. The Astros need to identify which prospects they are willing to deal and which they would prefer to keep. They should trade the future Seth Beers and Colin Morans and hold on to the future Framber Valdezes and Cristian Javiers.
And this, it is an open question to us Astros fans what role Crane and Brown will play in the decisions the team makes over the next month.
I have previously argued that “Crane is more central to the Astros decision making since [James] Click left the front office.” And one characteristic of the moves the Astros have made since Crane has increased his influence is that the team has tended to focus on the familiar. The team’s free agent signings since the 2022 World Series have been two internal signings—Michael Brantley and Rafael Montero—and one former Astros farmhand—Josh Hader. The team did find one new personality to add to the mix in Jose Abreu.
So one potential sign that Crane is driving the decision is if it they acquire a former Astros. It seems that Crane is more comfortable with these players. And it is my strong suspicion that Jeff Bagwell, who has become a key adviser to Crane, has his fingerprints on this strategy.
The other sign is if the deadline moves are for the biggest name possible. Three of the moves the team has made since Crane has increased his influence on baseball decisions have been for one of the biggest names available—Jose Abreu (a former MVP), Justin Verlander (a former Cy Young winner), and Josh Hader (a former NL Relief Pitcher of the Year winner).
Of course, Dana Brown may want to pursue big names or former Astros. It is actually unclear at this point what Brown’s style of player acquisition is, in large part because Crane has been, as I have argued before, “the pivotal man for the Astros” in making baseball decisions.
Maybe this is the chance for Dana Brown to spread his own wings and to make his move to help the Astros. I certainly hope so. I’ve been clear that my preference is for Jim Crane to return to the role that was saw from him 2012 to 2021—letting his baseball operations department make the decisions. They, after all, are the people in the organization with the most amount of knowledge about how to evaluate baseball players and to make decisions about baseball players.