The Astros are projected to have 5 more Wins Above Replacement in 2024, thanks to expected improvements from Hunter Brown, Jose Abreu, & their catchers. But Cristian Javier is not on that list.
Great post as always. One thing that doesn't make sense with Steamer’s projection is centerfield. They have Chas McCormick at 1.8 WAR (-1.2 Defense) and Meyers with 1.0 WAR (2.0 Defense). They both seem underrated in defense — especially given the positional bonus in CF. In 2023, Jake had 1.8 fWAR and Chas had 1.7 fWAR *just as centerfielders*.
Both Maldonado and Castro caught that regular season and had the same team ERAs. Castro then got hurt and the Astros acquired Christian Vasquez going into the postseason. Their historical performances that season is why they won in 2022. Why did Javier pitch a combined no hitter with Vasquez in the WS, but not with Maldonado last postseason? Nothing that Maldonado could have done helped the staff. By playing him, it hurt the team more than anything else. They had a higher winning percentage with Diaz and were barely a .500 team with Maldonado. Other teams did not give Maldonado credit for his intangibles just based on the contract that he got with the White Sox. Compare it, for example, with the contract that Christian Vasquez got from the Twins ($30,000,000/3 years). There's no comparison. The only one who gave Maldonado the type of platform he had with the Astros is Dusty. No one else is going to do that.
Great post as always. One thing that doesn't make sense with Steamer’s projection is centerfield. They have Chas McCormick at 1.8 WAR (-1.2 Defense) and Meyers with 1.0 WAR (2.0 Defense). They both seem underrated in defense — especially given the positional bonus in CF. In 2023, Jake had 1.8 fWAR and Chas had 1.7 fWAR *just as centerfielders*.
The pitching had career performances in 2022.
Both Maldonado and Castro caught that regular season and had the same team ERAs. Castro then got hurt and the Astros acquired Christian Vasquez going into the postseason. Their historical performances that season is why they won in 2022. Why did Javier pitch a combined no hitter with Vasquez in the WS, but not with Maldonado last postseason? Nothing that Maldonado could have done helped the staff. By playing him, it hurt the team more than anything else. They had a higher winning percentage with Diaz and were barely a .500 team with Maldonado. Other teams did not give Maldonado credit for his intangibles just based on the contract that he got with the White Sox. Compare it, for example, with the contract that Christian Vasquez got from the Twins ($30,000,000/3 years). There's no comparison. The only one who gave Maldonado the type of platform he had with the Astros is Dusty. No one else is going to do that.
Great analysis BA !