They Won More Games Than They Lost...Just Like Always: A Fifth Sixth Report
The calendar turns to September and the dog days have ended. The pitching and defense have been awesome all season and the offense started to catch up in the fifth sixth of the season.
August baseball is usually a slog, as the heat combines with the calendar position to make the baseball played during the month seem slower and more lethargic than in the other months.
But when Labor Day hits, the pace usually quickens. The end is near. There are chases for division titles and playoff spots (in other cities), and roster expansion allows new players to join the major league roster, providing a jolt to the rest of the roster.
We say that jolt last night at Minute Maid Park. Hunter Brown, the team’s top prospect, made his major league debut as a starter in the first game against the Rangers. His minor league teammates and manager (Mickey Storey) came up from Sugar Land to watch their friend. The Minute Maid Park crowd buzzed more than usual with the chance to see their top prospect. And the rest of the roster was more focused on their new teammate, as seen in how Justin Verlander reacted to a Hunter Brown strikeout.
N.B. Brown grew up in the Detroit metropolitan area, and unsurprisingly, his boyhood idol was Justin Verlander. Imaging your boyhood hero cheering you on as you pitch on his mound.
Brown and three relievers held the Rangers off the scoreboard and a Martin Maldonado single provided the game’s only run as the Astros won 1-0. The game marked the end of the fifth sixth of the Astros season, and Hunter Brown’s start provided a good transition from the fifth to the sixth of the Astros season.
The fifth sixth seemed a slog through hot weather, a frustrating road trip to Chicago and Atlanta, small but anxiety producing injuries to Verlander, Ryan Pressly, and Aledmys Diaz, and a general sense that the season lasts too long.
As a note, here at the Orange Fire Substack, we analyze the baseball season in sixth--each is a 27 game segment that corresponds to, but not exactly, the sixth months of a baseball season. I use sixths because it is easier to compare equal sections of the season--all sixths are 27 games. Businesses divide their fiscal years into quarters; similarly, I divide the baseball season into sixths.
Overall Record: 86/87-48/49 (.637/.644)
Record This Sixth: 16/17-10/11 (.593/.630)
On Pace for a Record of: 103/104-58/59
The Astros dug themselves a hole this sixth by losing their first two games in Cleveland. Then they got on the right side of the ledger by winning five of six in a home stand against the Rangers and A’s.
The sweep of the A’s evened the balanced sheet after Oakland had swept the Astros in a “That’s baseball” series at the Coliseum immediately after the big five game streak against the Yankees and Mariners right after the All Star break.
The team then embarked on their first losing road trip of the season, as they split four games against the White Sox and lost two of three to the red hot Atlanta Braves. But the rebounded immediately by winning four of six on the next home stand against the Twins and Orioles and four of five on the recent road trip to Arlington and Anaheim.
Yet, despite these winning stretches, I was surprised when I started totaling up the wins and losses for the team this sixth and found that they had easily had another winning sixth. The emotions of the fanbase felt much more “meh” than a 16-11/17-10 record justifies.
Maybe it is our negativity bias as humans and the fact that social media tends to amplify that negativity. Maybe it is the high standard this team has created for itself. Maybe it is because most of the sixth was in August and August baseball always seems like a slog.
But what we feel emotionally is not the same as what actually is happening. And one purpose of these reports is to focus on what is actually happening, which is that the Astros are winning a lot of baseball games, are on a pace to win more than 100 games, and have long ago eliminated any drama from the AL West race
Team Offense & MLB Rank.
R/G: 4.53 (9th). OBP: .318 (11th). SLG: .420 (7th). OPS: .739 (6th). OPS+: 110 (6th).
The number of runs scored is finally catching up to the other offensive numbers. The theme of this portion of these reports throughout this season has been that the fundamental numbers for the offense are in the top third of the league, but that the runs scored numbers has remained near the league’s midpoint.
In the fifth sixth, the run scoring improved. The Astros scored 4.6 runs per game, which pushed them up to 9th in the majors. It is the first time the team has been in the top third of the league in runs scored per game for one of these reports. For example, the Astros were 14th in the majors in run scored when I published the fourth sixth report on August 6th.
So for the first two-thirds of the season, the team should have scored more runs than it did based on how it was hitting the ball. In this sixth, it was the opposite. The Astros scored more runs than they should have based on how they were hitting the ball.
For the sixth, the team produced a collective slash line of .252/.313/.389. You will note that the on base and slugging are lower than the season averages, which means that the OPS is lower than the season average. But the run scoring went up.
There are two reasons for this. One is the team had an absolute laugher of a blowout victory against the White Sox, winning 21-5. The one game increases the overall run scoring by 0.78 over the 27 games of the sixth on its own.
The second is that is how baseball works. In the fourth sixth report, I wrote “the offensive should score more runs than it did in the fourth sixth. And frankly, they should score more runs over the season than they have. At some point, their run scoring should meet up with the stats behind it.”
In this sixth, it finally did. Overall, the offense is down from what we saw in the 2021 season, when the Astros led the American League in runs scored. This team is not an offensive juggernaut, and they have received below average offensive performances over the course of the season from their centerfielders, first basemen, and catchers. But they are an offense in the top third of the league. And finally that is reflected in the number of runs they have scored.
Team Pitching and MLB Rank
RA/G: 3.27 (2nd). FIP: 3.42 (2nd). WHIP: 1.11 (3rd). K/9: 9.2 (4th). BB/9: 2.9 (12th)
The pitching staff entered the fifth sixth having given up 3.29 per game, and they managed to lower that number in the sixth. It was an impressive performance, but that should not be a surprise. The pitching staff has been impressive throughout the season.
The pitching staff gave 3.19 runs per game in the fifth sixth, which lowered their season average by 0.02 runs per game.
Over the course of the season, Astro hurlers have held opposing batters to a .213/.284/.334 slash line. That’s a .619 OPS for opposing hitters. The major league hitter whose OPS is closest to that is Adam Frazier of the Mariners; his .624 OPS is 136th out of 142 qualified hitters this season. In short, Astros pitchers have turned the average major leaguer into a banjo hitter, and they have done that consistently across the season.
Team Fielding and MLB Rank
Fielding Runs Above Average 41 (4th). Defensive Runs Saved: 60 (3rd-t). Ultimate Zone Rating: 12.7 (7th). Outs Above Average 21 (4th). Errors: 60 (4th).
How are the Astros able to keep opponents from scoring many runs? One key is the pitching staff, as discussed above, and another key is the gloves. The number show that the Astros are an outstanding defensive team.
The advanced defensive statistics listed above are complicated to understand because each tries to account for a wide variety of factors, such as park effects and the percentage of ground balls and fly balls in specific zones of the field.
So let’s take a simpler measure of defense—defensive efficiency. It measures the percentage of batted balls that are turned into an out. The Astros have turned 72.1% of the balls hit by opposing pitchers into outs. Is that good? Yes, the league average is 69.6%. The Astros turn 2.5% more balls into outs than the average team. The .721 defensive efficiency is the second best in the majors, behind only the Dodgers.
And it’s not a coincidence that the teams with the two best records in baseball are first and second in defensive efficiency. Of the top seven teams in defensive efficiency, six are in playoff position. And none of the teams in the bottom eight in defensive efficiency are in playoff position. Good teams tend to field well, and the Astros are a key piece of evidence for that proposition.
Notable Player Performances
Alex Bregman .333/.425/.678 .457 wOBA 7 HR. 22 RBI. 25 Runs Scored
Am I obligated to make a Dad strength joke? I guess I already did. Bregman’s wife Reagan gave birth to their son Knox on August 2nd and Bregman took off from then. He’s scored a run a game and knocked in runs at almost the same pace. He’s carried the offense this sixth.
Trey Mancini .195/.259/.351. 73 wRC+
Mancini had 6 extra base hits, including 3 home runs during the fifth sixth, and that is pretty much the sum of his contributions. He had only 15 base hits and 6 walks. His has a BABIP of .235, so he has been hitting in some bad luck. But overall, he has yet to show the best of his game in an Astros uniform.
Framber Valdez. 4 GS. 29 IP. 1.55 ERA. 26.8 K%. 7.1 BB%. 65.3 GB%
Framber Valdez continues to develop into a top flight major league pitcher. In his early career, Valdez’s problem was walks. He walked 15.6% of the batters he faced in 2018 and 13.4% in 2019. Last season, he got that down to 10.1%. It is at 8.4% for the season and he got it down to 7.1% in the sixth. It is hard for batters to hit their way on against Framber because he induces so many ground balls. And he struck over a quarter of the batters he faced in the sixth. A winning combination on the mound.
Luis Garcia 5 GS. 29 IP. 4.66 ERA 21.8 K%. 8.1 BB%. .281 BA Against. .353 BABIP
Garcia has seemed to struggle as the season has progressed. His ERA was at 3.07 after a start on June 4, and had crept up to 4.14 after his start against the Twins on August 25. But Garcia was the victim of some bad luck as more balls were falling in than should have. We saw that reverse on Saturday night in Anaheim when Garcia gave up only 3 hits (and struck out 7) in 7 innings against the Angels. Maybe his luck is turning around.
Gristian Javier 5 Appearances 4 GS. 26 IP. 2.42 ERA 28.2 K%. 7.8 BB%. .
The Astros moved Javier to the bullpen briefly during the sixth, but returned him to the rotation when Justin Verlander went on the IL. It is evidence of the strength of the Astros starting rotation when you put a pitcher as talented and who is pitching as well as Javier into the bullpen, you can make an argument with a straight face that yes, that’s the right move.
Their Place in the Race
Overall Record: 87-48 (.644)
1st Place. 11 Games Ahead of Seattle
Run Differential: +170
Expected Record: 87-48
In my Third Sixth report, I asked “Is this section necessary for the rest of the season?” I repeated that quote again in the fourth sixth. And I can do it again here in the fifth sixth because it definitely won’t be necessary in the sixth sixth report.
The Astros are going to win the American League West. They have an 11 game lead over the Mariners. That’s pretty impressive because the Mariners are 46-20 since June 21. The Astros are 45-23 since then. They have hardly given up a bit of their lead in the division despite the Mariners winning games at a .697 winning percentage.
And since we are looking at June 21, since that date, the Yankees have gone 31-36. The Astros have gained 15 games on them since then and now have six game lead for the top seed in the American League playoffs. With 27 games left in the season, it is possible for the Yankees to overtake the Astros for that spot, but vanishingly unlikely, especially if the Astros have a 12th straight winning sixth.
The benefits of having the top seed is modest, as it is one extra home game if the ALCS reaches a seventh game. But the benefit of being a top two seed in the AL playoffs is much more robust. Major League Baseball changed this playoff system as part of this year’s Collective Bargaining Agreement with the Players Association. Six teams will make the playoffs in each league, including a third wild card team.
The third best division winner and the three wild card teams will meet in a best of three series on the weekend immediately after the season ends. The top two seeds will get a bye to the American League Division series. And there is very good news here; the Astros are 17 games up on the Guardians, who lead the AL Central at the moment with a 69-64 record. The chances of the Guardians passing the Astros to take a bye away from our boys is nearly zero.
In short, the final sixth of the season for the Astros will be about two things—seeing what they have in prospects like Hunter Brown (and first impressions were good), and getting prepared for October. It’s a good time to be an Astros fan, and our six season streak of being able to say that continues.