Do August Games Matter?
The Astros had a weird week with a losing record, a positive run differential, close games and a big blowout. Yet the games lack impact on the standings or urgency. My reflections on August baseball.
In addition to being an Astros fan, I’m a fan of LSU sports. And that includes the LSU baseball team. So that means 1) the baseball season starts in the middle of February (bonus baseball), 2) I’ve known that Alex Bregman is a great baseball player for a really long time, 3) it’s possible that I’ve followed Chandler Rome (former LSU baseball student newspaper beat reporter) longer than anyone else on Astros Twitter, and 4) I’m familiar with the phrase “Midweek Games Don’t Matter.”
In college baseball, the biggest series (conference games and high profile non-conference matchups) are played from Friday to Sunday, but in the middle of the week, top notch programs like LSU tend to play lower tier programs. As a result, top tier programs use midweek games to develop their younger players and to experiment with new lineups. And because this is baseball, sometimes top tier programs lose these games. Should their fans worry about these losses to inferior teams. Well, midweek games don’t matter.
I thought about the “midweek games don’t matter” mantra over the last few weeks watching the Astros play. And it raised the question for me: do August games matter?
I’ll start with the obvious answer to that question which is yes. They matter because they are recorded in the standings. These are no like Grapefruit League games where the standings get wiped out on a certain day. The stats show up the next day on BaseballReference.com, and the wins and losses show up in the standings.
But, the purpose of the standings is to tell us who is winning each division and who is going to make the playoffs. And on that front, the games we have watched the last 3 weeks tell us little about what is going on in the standings. Midweek college baseball games tend to lack drama, as the outcome is rarely in doubt. And thus, its similarity to August baseball in MLB.
Further, both midweek college games and August major league games lack urgency. The playoffs are too far away for players to be excited by them being around the corner, and enough baseball has been played for the outcome of the division race to be in doubt. It’s a less compelling product than what we saw earlier in the season or will see as we get into the Fall months.
No Drama in the AL West Race
The Astros have a huge lead in the American League West, and their recent run of bad play has done little to dent either the Astros division lead or their projected odds of winning the division, which is 99.3% at Baseball Prospectus, at 99.9% at Fangraphs, and at “>99.9%” at Baseball Reference.
With 39 games to play in the season and an 11.5 game lead in the AL West, there is almost no scenario where the Mariners catch the Astros. Their lead to win a top 2 seed in the American League and a bye to the ALDS is even bigger.
The Astros odds of winning the division are so high for a very good reason—this his a really good baseball team. The offense can feature up to 8 players with an OPS+ over 100 this season. The rotation is six deep in quality starters (don’t make me regret saying this, Luis Garcia), and the bullpen has four pitchers with FIPS below 3.00 (Pressly, Montero, Neris, and Abreu) and another with an FIP below 4.00 (Stanek).
But the Astros excellent play this season has drained the drama from their games this month. The argument that August games don’t matter is centered around the fact the outcome of an any individual game will have much impact on the final results of the AL West of the battle for a playoff bye. Those have essentially already been decided.
That’s The Weird Week That Was
The "do August games matter” question raised itself to me in large part because the Astros results for the last week were weird. The good news was that the Astros outscored their opponents by 10 runs last week. The middle news was that the Astros went 2-2 in one-run games. And the bad news is that despite the good news and the middle news, the team had a losing record on the week, dropping 4 of 7 games.
So did they play well or poorly? It depends on your perspective. The big run differential comes from the 21 run outburst in Chicago on Thursday afternoon. The Astro bats finally broke out. But outside of that game, the offense scored 16 runs in regulation in six other games.
Yet, despite the offense being the big problem in the losses this week, three of the losses awarded by the official scorer this week were awarded to members of the bullpen. As a result, there was much more focus on the bullpen than on the offense in conversations around the team.
Because of the big lead in the division and having a big lead on the bye to the ALDS, the losses do not sting for me as much as they must have for White Sox fans, who need every win to come from behind in the AL Central, or Braves fans, who are hoping to catch the Mets to win their division and a first round bye. One can simply move on to the next game.
The Astros Goal: Prep For October
With the games themselves lacking any drama, the main focus for the Astros right now is to prepare for October.
To that end the Astros are doing a couple of different things right now. One is that they are getting a good deal of rest for the regulars. Altuve sat on Sunday after sitting on Monday as well. Rest for the regulars reduces their injury risk both because they are playing less, and because they are less likely to play while tired.
It also give more at bats to players who might contribute in October. The Astros are trying to sort through their options in left field now that Michael Brantley is out for the season with shoulder surgery. This also affects center field, where Chas McCormick is getting more playing time and may take the position from Jake Meyers for October.
And what happens in left field also affects first base. If Yordan Alvarez plays in left, then Trey Mancini can DH and Yuli Gurriel remains at first. But if someone like Aledmys Diaz plays left, then Alvarez moves to DH, and Dusty Baker has to choose between Trey Mancini and Yuli Gurriel at first.
Yet the mention of Aledmys Diaz and Yordan Alvarez reminds us that the Astros did not achieve their main goal this week of keeping their players healthy. Diaz went to the IL on Wednesday with an injured left groin. Alvarez removed himself from the game on Friday with shortness of breath and briefly went to the hospital for treatment. And Mauricio Dubon, who entered the game on Friday when Alvarez left, left the game himself when he crashed into the center field fence.
But despite these injuries, the Astros appear to have avoided the worst case scenario. Alvarez and Dubon were both in the lineup on Sunday (and had good games, going 4 for 10 with 3 runs scored and 2 RBI).
Diaz did go on the IL, but the early prognosis is that injury will cost Diaz “a few weeks.” That is not ideal, but should give him time to return to the active roster and get some at bats before the playoffs begin.
The Privilege of August Indifference
August is hot (I realize my mostly Texas based audience does not need a reminder), and it is slog for a baseball team to the get through the month. Enough of the season has been played that we know a lot about what the playoffs will be like, but not enough that the playoffs are right around the corner. Players are tired from the long season but not energized by the prospect of truly meaningful games soon.
That Astros games matter so little in August because of the work that the team put in during the first four months of the season. The Astros wrapped up the American League West in the first half of the season and the misery that Yankee fans are going through1 mean that we Astro fans do not need to sweat out every loss. Or maybe, we can let each one go more quickly.
And we should regard the fact that August games don’t really matter as a privilege. Astros personnel and fans can both think primarily about what will happen in October. In that, we are exceedingly lucky as fans.
