The Weak Farm System Limits Opportunities: A Trade Deadline Primer
The Astros Do Not Seem to Have to Prospect Capital to Acquire Players at the Top of the Trade Market; They Can Target Players Where the Market Is Plentiful and Prices Are Lower
Last week, Fangraphs released their “Pre-Draft Farm System” rankings on what they call “The Board.” The rankings put the Astros as the 27th best farm system among the 30 in the major leagues.
The low ranking should not be a surprise, as it is in line with other rankings released earlier in the season. Keith Law of The Athletic had the most optimistic view of the Astros farm system—he ranked it 24th. Baseball American ranked them 28th and MLB Pipeline ranked them 29th.
The Fangraphs update is quite useful though, as their farm system ranking includes not only just the ordinal rank, but also a chart that lists the number of players each team has at each tier of projected value for prospects on the team. The values are on a scale from 20 (normal person) to 80 (Hall of Fame level) used by scouts to assess prospects and their individual skills. This allows for easier comparison of the farm system value each team has.
And it shows why the Astros farm system is ranked so low. The Astros have only 2 prospects given a value of 50 or higher.1 Only three teams have fewer high quality prospects; four also have 2 prospects in this range, and 23 have more. Lower the value of prospects to 45 and the gulf between the Astros farm system and their opponents grows larger. The Astros have six players at a 45 or greater; there are 14 MLB teams with a double digit number of prospects in this range.
Overall, the Astros have 33 minor league players given a value by Fangraphs. It’s the 5th lowest of any team in the major leagues. At the moment, the Astros have very few high quality prospects—those expected to be major league regulars—and very few prospects at all. Some of this is the result of making trades in recent years to get players to help in playoff runs and some the result of losing their top two draft picks in 2020 and 2021 as punishment for the sign stealing scandal. But regardless of why the Astros have such a weak farm system, the fact is that they do at the moment.
The Weak Farm System and the Trade Deadline
Why go through this look at the Astros farm system? Because the trade deadline is upcoming and the Astros are looking to make additions to help the team in October. And the weakness of the farm system means that the team has fewer assets in its cupboard to offer other teams.
And this will make it difficult for the Astros to win the bidding for the most coveted players on the trade market. Take Willson Contreras, for example. The catcher is having an excellent season for the moribund Cubs, but as a free agent this off-season, most expect that the Cubs will cash him in for prospects rather than lose him for nothing in the off season.
For as much as the Astros praise the skill of Martin Maldonado at handling the pitching staff, his offensive production is poor. Contreras would upgrade the offense behind the dish significantly, and a number of Astros fans have called for acquiring Contreras. But a number of other playoff contenders (e.g. the Mets, Giants, Padres, and Guardians, among others) could also use an upgrade at catcher, and they can offer a Top 100 prospect for him or their 2021 first round draft choice without having to offer their best prospect.
“Our Farm System Is Better Than Others Think” Is a Useful Argument, But Not at the Trade Deadline
I can hear people starting their Twitter responses to me: “These rankings always underestimate the Astros farm system because we keep pulling guys like Jeremy Pena and Jake Meyers out of nowhere. Stop listening to these people.”
I offer a couple of responses:
Fair enough. The Astros in general, and James Click in particular, have shown a penchant for developing and correctly evaluating the value of their prospects at AAA and are getting more value from them than anyone expected. This is a good asset for the Astros.
Trades are based on what other people think about your prospects and they value they put on them. If everyone else undervalues one of your prospects, that’s on them, but it’s hard to get fair value for them.
Where the Trade Market is Limited
Eric Longerhagen of Fangraphs wrote an evaluation of the Astros farm system earlier this year. It included a scouting report on all 33 of the prospects that determined the Astros farm system ranking, and a “System Overview.” It began: “Below-average in terms of both top-end and overall depth, the Astros’ system might be a barrier between them and any significant deadline additions.”
As discussed above, those barriers would seem to include acquiring Willson Contreras, the top catcher on the market. So maybe the Astros could move to the second best catcher on the market—except there may not be a second best catcher on the market. MLBTradeRumors.com recently published their annual list of the Top 50 trade candidates. Contreras is listed at 1, and no other catcher is in the Top 50. A handful of catchers (Tucker Barnhardt, Steven Vogt, Curt Casali) are listed in the “Others of Note” section. In short, there may only be one catcher on the market who is an upgrade at catcher from Martin Maldanado, and the Astros seem to be unlikely to get him.
There is a similar situation in center field, which some have identified as an Astros need. The MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 includes three centerfielders—Ramon Laureano of the A’s; Cedric Mullins of the Orioles; and Brian Reynolds of the Pirates. None of these three would be rentals, as none will be a free agent before 2025. So their teams do not have to trade them unless they are blown away by an offer. And the lack of prospect capital makes it difficult for the Astros to make such an offer.
Between what seems to be available on the trade market and what the Astros can offer in prospect value, I do not expect them to make a move for a catcher or a center fielder
An Aside on Juan Soto
On Saturday morning, news broke that the Washington Nationals would “entertain trade offers” for Juan Soto, who had rejected a 15 year contract offer that would pay him an average of $29.3 million a season.
The Astros should of course pursue a trade for Soto, even if they don’t pursue an extension with him. Soto is one of the handful of best players in baseball, and they would have him on the team for 3 playoff runs before he becomes a free agent. And the Astros seem likely to be a playoff team for those three seasons, regardless of whether they get Soto of not.
I do not think the Astros are likely to acquire Soto, as other teams can offer top level prospects that the Astros do not have. But the Astros could be competitive if the Nationals are willing to take young major league players. The Astros could offer something like Cristian Javier, Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, and Hunter Brown as the start of a package. I’m not sure they Nats would prefer that over top level minor leaguers, but it’s something that they would listen to, if the James Click would be willing to make such a deal.
But for the rest of the potential players on the trade market, it would make little sense to offer major league starters. The value of the trade targets are not strong enough.
What The Astros Can Target on the Trade Market
While the trade market does not seem fruitful for the Astros to upgrade at catcher or centerfielder, it seem more likely that they could acquire a target at first base and in the bullpen.
The Top 50 trade candidates lists three first basemen—Josh Bell (WAS), Trey Mancini (BAL), and Dominic Smith (NYM)—as trade candidates. The “Others of Note” section includes Christian Walker (ARI) and Miguel Sano (MIN) as possible first basemen on the block. Also, if they were a rational front office, the Rockies would have C.J. Cron on the trading block.
In short, there is a lot of supply of first basemen on the market. And where there is a lot of supply, the price goes down. If the Astros want to make an upgrade on Yuli Gurriel (and move Gurriel to a utility role), then they should be able to meet the cost in terms of prospects, even with a less well-regarded farm system.
The other area where there is a large supply of candidates on the trade market is in the bullpen. A full quarter of the names listed on the MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Trade Candidates are bullpen arms. Bullpen arms are cheap to acquire, in large part because their performance is volatile, so teams are willing to trade a hot arm now for a prospect, even if it’s a low-level prospect.
On one hand, the Astros do not need a bullpen arm. The bullpen has recorded a 2.97 ERA this season, second best in the majors. And on the other hand, a team could always use another arm in the bullpen. This need is greater in the modern playoffs, where teams are very sensitive to the third time through the order penalty, and pile more innings up on the bullpen.
The Astros have 4 members of what could be called their “A” bullpen. In high leverage situations, Dusty Baker will hand the ball to one of Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, and Ryne Stanek. This group has two things in common: 1) They have been very effective on the mound; collectively, they have a 2.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 131 innings pitched, and 2) All four of them throw with throw with their right hand.
This has led to a focus on finding a left handed bullpen arm at the trade deadline. Friend of the Substack Larry the GM has identified left handed bullpen arms who could be available at the deadline—Andrew Chafin of the Tigers and Joe Mantiply of the Diamondbacks.
For context, Chafin was traded last year at the trade deadline by the Cubs to the A’s. He went for an older prospect near the majors (Greg Deichmann, who was the A’s #9 prospect at the time) and a 21 year old pitcher in Low A at the time. One could imagine the Astros offering a similar package (e.g. Joe Perez or JJ Matijevic as the older prospect) for Chafin, who will likely decline an option in his contract for next season and become a free agent after this season.
Mantiply has more years before free agency, so it is possible he would require more prospect capital to acquire.
These names are just suggestions at this point. And the left handed part is not essential. The Astros have done well with an all-right handed or mostly right-handed bullpen all season. The point is this is an area where the Astros will likely target to make an improvement, and where they have the prospect capital to make a deal.
The trade deadline will be the biggest story in baseball coming out of the trade deadline. And it is a chance for teams to take stock of their biggest weaknesses and try to address them.
For the Astros, the good news is that the team is strong—on pace to win 106 games. The team has improved since last season thanks to the continued development of its starting pitchers (Cristian Javier into an excellent starting pitcher; Framber Valdez into an All-Star), the star play of Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Altuve, and the improvement in the bullpen. The development of rookie Jeremy Pena into a high quality shortstop has exceeded expectations and eliminated any downturn from the loss of Carlos Correa. All of the team’s second half concerns regard getting the team in the best shape for October.
The team has a handful of problem spots that I have discussed above. Some, like catcher and center field, seem like they cannot be addressed at the trade deadline. Others, like first base, are clear targets for potential improvement.
A key limiting factor to the Astros ability to make improvements at the deadline is their farm system. It is not well regarded by baseball insiders, and this will likely mean they will get outbid by other teams for the top players they seek. But they can pursue lower cost options that can help the team in October. Expect limited but useful moves before the deadline.
The prospects are Jeremy Pena and Hunter Brown. Yes, Pena has lost his prospect status at this point, but the rankings are based on the values developed in the Spring.
Your article is laughable. What was the Astros offer Christian Javier and Jeremy Peña you ain’t no sense there.