The Steady Michael Brantley Was the Best of the Flawed Choices for Left Field
Injuries have reduced Michael Brantley's value in recent seasons, but his high contact offensive style has not declined despite the injuries.
The Houston Astros have re-signed Michael Brantley as a free agent. The team announced the signing this morning, which means that Brantley passed his a physical exam.
This is the third time that the Astros have signed Brantley as a free agent. After the 2018 season, the Astros signed Brantley away from the Guardians (nee Indians) to a 2 year contract for $16 million a year, and after the 2020 season, they did so again.
This time, it’s a 1 year deal for $12 million, but with performance bonuses, it can go up to, wait for it, $16 million.
It’s not surprising that Brantley’s salary has remained the same over his tenure as an Astros because his play has been just as steady. As an Astros, Brantley’s OPS+ has been steady, with a range from 126 to 119. His On Base Percentage has also been steady, between .372 and .362 over his four seasons. His Batting Average? Yep, steady, ranging between .311 and .282.
In short, Brantley’s numbers have been remarkably steady—and productive—when he is at the plate for the Astros. As a hitter, he’s a metronome, doing the same thing again and again on the regular.
There are serious concerns with Brantley—he’s not young and he’s had an increasing set of injury concerns in recent seasons. These concerns have reduced his statistical value in recent years, as his bWAR has gone from 4.8 to 4.3 (prorated for 2020) to 2.4 to 1.1 in 2022.
The good news is that the signs of aging for Brantley seem to be limited to his injury record—his Statcast numbers have shown little sign of decline. Brantley is thus likely to remain effective at the plate. The question is how often he will get to bat.
A High-Quality, High-Contact Hitter.
In his four seasons in an Astros uniform, Brantley has slashed .306/.368/.464 for a 124 OPS+. His 128 wRC+ over that period is 37th best among all qualified major league hitters
Fun fact: that 128 wRC+ is only 6th best among hitters on the 2023 Astros roster—this is an encouraging sign for next season.
Brantley succeeds by making a lot of contact—his K% of 11.0 is the 5th lowest in the majors since 2019. Brantley strikes out little because when he swings, he makes contact with the ball 89.6% of the time, which is 3rd best in the majors since 2019. But unlike other hitters who don’t strike out,1 Brantley makes quality contact with the ball. He hovers around league average in statistics like average exit velocity and hard hit %.
You won’t get big power from Brantley—his career high in home runs is 22 But you will get a high batting average (he’s hit .306 over his 4 seasons in Houston) which leads to a high on base percentage (.368 as an Astro). It makes him a really effective offensive player.
The Risks of Signing Brantley
What are the risks of signing Brantley? Well, we Astros fans know, because we’ve been watching him for the last four seasons.
For example, we saw Brantley limited to 277 PAs in 2022. Brantley went on the IL in late June, and, after two months of hoping his shoulder could recover, finally had season ending surgery in August.
In both 2020 and 2021, Brantley missed about one-quarter of the season due to various ailments. His 2022 injury was more severe, but it follows a pattern of Brantley getting injured, a trend that is less likely to abate as he turns 36 next May.
To the eye test, Brantley’s defense has seemed to decline over his time with the Astros as his speed has declined. But the numbers show that he has maintained average levels on defense (2 DRS; -1 OAA; 1 FRAA in 2022) and that his speed has always been overrated. He has recorded below average levels of Sprint Speed since Statcast began tracking the metric in 2015.
These negatives are of course related to Brantley’s age. He made his major league debut in 2009 (his teammates included guys you haven’t thought about in a while like Kerry Wood, Travis Hafner, and Carl Pavano). Injury risk and defensive decline tend to go up as players get into their 30s.
Little Decline in His Bat Speed
Brantley’s Statcast numbers at the plate show little evidence of a decline in his skills. His average exit velocity last season was 89.9 MPH, which was the second highest of his career.
And while his exit velocity rates have been extremely steady throughout his career, his hard hit % and barrel % have not. They have been climbing. His hard hit % was 36.2% in 2015 when he led the AL in doubles; it was 45.1% last season. He hit barrels 3.9% of the time that he made contact in 2015; in 2022, he barreled the ball 6.0% of the time.
Brantley’s power numbers were down last season, as his .416 slugging percentage was his lowest since 2013. But his his expected slugging percentage (xSLG) was .467, again higher than the .425 xSLG that Brantley recorded in 2015, the first year of Statcast data.
Overall, these numbers present a case for optimism. Brantley’s body may have betrayed him in 2022, but his swing didn’t. It was as good as ever.
The Best of the Options?
As noted, there are not insubstantial number of risks to signing Brantley. HIs swing remains solid, but at his age, it could start to go. Or injuries will limit his time on the field, like it did last season.
But no baseball move comes without risks. And in the end, you can only compare it to the alternatives. The front office could have pursued a trade—players like Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals, Max Kepler of the Twins, and Jake McCarthy of the Diamondbacks have been mentioned in trade rumors this off season. But each deal would likely have required the Astros to trade a starting pitcher.
Signing a free agent does not require giving up a player in return, only money. That market so far has gone in two groups, with the first being those who signed long-term contracts. Aaron Judge and Brandon Nimmo signed nine and eight year contracts respectively. The Astros prefer not to sign players for more than five free agent years. Another strong left field candidate was Andrew Benintendi. The White Sox signed him to a 5 year, $15M a year deal which offers little upside to the signing team. You can see why the front office passed on each of these.
The second group of outfield free agents are what we can call the mystery box candidates. Cody Bellinger signed for $17.5M for 1 year with the Cubs on the hopes that he bounces back from his horrendous last three years. The Red Sox signed Japanese star Msatsaka Yoshida to a five year deal. How will his game translate to the majors? Opinions vary. And another option was Michael Conforto (not yet signed), who missed all of 2022 after suffering a shoulder injury in off-season training last winter. Brantley’s health may be a risk but, as noted above, his bat is not.
Given these other options, you can see why they pursued Brantley, who is less of a mystery and less of a long-term commitment than any other.
I will take the under on any playing time projection for Brantley and would hope the team essentially schedules in IL stints for him as load management. It’s more important to have Brantley in the lineup in October than any random game in June.
And the alternative to having Brantley in the lineup is pretty acceptable in my opinion. I expect Jake Meyers to serve as the fourth outfielder this season. When Brantley sits, Meyers will play center and Chas McCormick will slide to left.
These two, combined with Kyle Tucker in right, are an outstanding defensive outfield. That provides a high floor for the team next year, even with a starter like Brantley on the IL. Pedro Leon had a modest year in Sugar Land last season, but if he can improve this year he can join this mix in the outfield when a roster spot is available.
Most Astros fans soured on Jake Meyers after his struggles at the plate in 2022. But I remain optimistic about his prospects for 2021. First of all, his defense did not slump in 2022, He recorded 4 Defensive Runs Saved and 7 Outs Above Average according to defensive metrics. This kept him above replacement level, despite, well, you know.
Meyers is projected to slash .237/.304/.387 for a 97 wRC+ in 2023 according to Steamer. That won’t beat out Mike Trout and Julio Rodriguez for an All-Star berth, but with excellent defense will be a helpful contribution.
The alternatives to Brantely to start in left field were not worth the costs to acquire them. And the alternatives to Brantley when he is on the IL reduce risks of this deal.
Brantley is a risky player, but seems the right choice based on these factors.
He is sandwiched on the contact% leaderboard by David Fletcher (2nd best) and Myles Straw (4th best). Calling those two banjo hitters is an insult to banjos.