The Most Important Decision in the AL West This Offseason: The Mariners Didn't Spend
The Mariners had the incentive to add a big free agent to maximize their chances of making the playoffs and the payroll room to do it. That they did not is good news for the Astros in 2023 and beyond.
The Astros have of course dominated the AL West since 2017. Houston has won the division in each of the last five full seasons, winning over 100 games four times.
The Mariners were rebuilding most of that time, especially after a fluke 89 win season in 2018. The work on developing the team’s prospects paid off in 2022 when the Mariners advanced to the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
Julio Rodriguez won Rookie of the Year and looks like a future MVP candidate in centerfield. Cal Raleigh took over the everyday catcher job, hit a walk off homer to clinch a playoff spot, and reminded everyone of the beauty of large butts. George Kirby took a spot in the playoff rotation, which Astros fans will remember from the first seven shutout innings of the 18 inning Game 3.
In addition, the Mariners prospect stash allowed them to make a huge addition at the trade deadline—acquiring ace Luis Castillo from the Reds for a big haul of prospects.
The Mariners were coming for the Astros in the AL West and they made the division title “a realistic goal” in the words of Jerry DiPoto, their President of Baseball Operations.
This offseason’s bumper crop of free agents offered the Mariners the opportunity to make a big addition to their major league roster who could help them compete with the Astros in 2023 and who could play with their young stars for years to come.
Think of the Mariners adding a Carlos Correa to play shortstop while sliding JP Crawford’s excellent glove to second base. Or Xander Bogaerts to plug that hole at second base. Or adding Brandon Nimmo to shore up their weakness in an outfield corner. Or one of the big starting pitchers like Jacob de Grom or Justin Verlander to team with Castillo, Kirby, and Logan Gilbert at the top of their rotation.
Each of these moves would have cost money, but they would have been a big upgrade on a team aiming to take down the Astros in the AL West. Except the Mariners did not make any of these moves. In fact, it does not appear that they tried. There are no report that the Mariners tried to sign a big name free agent and just lost out on them (c.f. the Giants). Instead, it appears the choice was not to sign spend more money on their payroll.
A Puzzling Choice
This choice is puzzling for two reasons. The first is that the Mariners certainly seem to have the room to add payroll. The database at Cot’s Contracts reports that the Mariners are expected to have an opening day payroll of $137.0 million, which is the 18th largest in baseball. To give you another sense of how low that is, the Rockies are going to spend $21 million more this season.
The Mariners history also shows that they can spend more. The Mariners ran higher payrolls in nominal dollars from 2016 to 2019. That payroll ranged from the 11th to the 13th highest in the majors in that time period.
And of course, payrolls have gone up across the league since that stretch in the late 2010s. This year, the 12th biggest payroll in baseball is at $176.2 million, a good $36 million more than the Mariners payroll this season. Seattle is the 12th largest market in the majors, so that seems a reasonable payroll level for this team.
The second reason that the Mariner’s failure to pursue a big free agent this offseason is puzzling is because a team in the Mariner’s position could really use a big boost.
The “Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS projections, posted near the beginning of the offseason, had the Mariners winning the final Wild Card spot in the AL, but barely. They were decimal points ahead of the Angels and were given a 51.1% chance of making the playoffs.1
Adding high quality players has little effect on the playoff odds of teams likely to get into the playoffs and on team likely to miss it. But they are the most valuable for teams in the middle—like the Mariners, who are a coin flip to make the playoffs.
The Mariners did not sit on their hands this offseason. They addressed their specific holes, trading a reliever for Teoscar Hernandez to replace free agent Mitch Haniger in right field and getting Kolten Wong for Jessie Winker and Abraham Toro to fill their hole at second base. They signed veteran AJ Pollock to a one-year contract to play in an outfield corner.
But these acquisitions are of near-average players. They fill holes, but they do not move the needle. Further evidence of that is provided by an update to the ZiPS standings projections posted this morning. The Mariners have a 54.0% chance of making the playoffs, barely higher than it was in November.
Another note to make about the Mariners offseason is that their front office committed entirely to short term deals. Hernandez, Wong, and Pollock will all become free agents after the 2023 season.
The fact that Hernandez and Wong have just one year left on their contracts reduced the cost of acquiring them. But those costs were in players. A free agent acquisition would only have cost money.
Further, the preference for short term solutions means that the Ms front office will have to address each of these positions again next season. Instead of adding to the team’s core, the Mariners tinkered around the edges.
For a team that appears poised to be in the playoff hunt for the next several seasons, it’s a confusing decision. From the outside, it is hard to know whether the Mariners decision to eschew top level free agents was made by owner John Stanton—looking to preserve his profits—or by POBO Jerry Di Poto—preferring trades and short term commitments over long ones. Undoubtedly, both bear some responsibility.
The Mariners Going Cheap Is Good for the Astros
Regardless of why the Mariners made the decision to eschew big dollar free agents this offseason, the effect is clear. It makes it harder for the Mariners to get into the playoffs this season and in the near future.
The Mariners chose to go cheap in 2023, not increasing their payroll to historical levels for their franchise to sign a star level player. This choice means that the Mariners continue to have something like a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs in 2023. And the choice to keep the payroll low means less investment in the 2024 team (at the moment).
The American League West featured a great deal of action this offseason. The Rangers jumped again into the free agent pool to sign four-fifths of a rotation, essentially giving up on their ability to develop young players. The Angels made a large number of short term moves to shore up their depth around Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout—two of the game’s biggest stars. The Astros filled a couple of holes in their otherwise strong foundation of homegrown stars. And the A’s signed a bunch of fourth starters and utility infielders.
But the most important decision in the AL West this offseason, in my opinion, was the Mariners choice not to invest in a free agent to add to the core of their team.
This decision means that the Mariners are less likely to win a playoff spot in 2023 and in the next few years. And less likely to make the playoffs means less likely to win the AL West. And that is good news for us Astros fans.
The model gave the Mariners a 19.5% chance of winning the AL West and a 31.6% chance of claiming one of the Wild Card spots. The Astros had the best chance of winning the AL West at 52.0%.