The Astros Sink Big Resources Into a 1-Inning Reliever. I Think It Will Work.
Analytic thinking has always suggested finding, not paying for relievers. And yet based on the importance of 2024 and Hader's elite strikeout rates, I find myself not hating the deal.
As an analytics guy, I’m supposed to hate a signing like Josh Hader. Big free agents are often dubious signings because the team pays at the top of the market and often signs a player for the decline phase of their career.
Signings of relievers are even more dubious. Each year, high quality relievers just “emerge” thanks to a small mechanical adjustment or the ability to throw with greater velocity when moved out of the rotation. In that context, a team should just find a reliever, rather than buy one.
That sentiment was prevalent on a Slack channel for subscribers of the Joe Sheehan newsletter, where the move was described as a “weird choice” by Sheehan, and more critically by other commentors: a “horrific idea;” an example of Houston “doing everything wrong;” a sign of Jim Crane’s “hubris.” On Twitter, Keith Law noted that “the history of free-agent relievers who sign 4+ year deals is dismal.”
I’ve been reading Sheehan and Law for over 20 years now and analytic baseball analysis for even longer. I know that every one of these criticisms is legitimate and backed by research and knowledge.
And yet, despite the fact that I should hate this deal, I don’t. There are serious downside risks to such a deal, and and I do not expect Hader to be produce $19 million of value in 2028, the final year of the contract. Frankly, I don’t expect Hader to be great every season of the contract because relievers are volatile often due just to the effects of small sample sizes.
But Hader is a top-line relief pitcher who will help the Astros in 2024, which is the key season for this franchise. There are some costs in the future in terms of both losing draft picks and in making the payroll work. But the biggest cost is to Jim Crane’s wallet, and that is a pretty easy cost for the team to bear to address its one remaining hole on the 2024 roster.
The Dubious History of Big Free Agent Reliever Signings
Law is not wrong that the history of long-term commitments to relievers is dubious, at best. Some of that is due to injury risk (c.f. Edwin Diaz; Liam Hendriks); some of that is due to the anxiety created every time a reliever gives up a baserunner (c.f. Arolis Chapman; Kenley Jansen). And some from under-performance (c.f. Mark Melancon; Wade Davis).
The hope for us Astros fans is that Hader has a future like Jonathan Papelbon, who signed a 4-year, $12.5 million a year contract with the Phillies after the 2011 season, and then saved 130 games and had a 2.38 ERA in 261.1 innings.1
Elite Record. Excellent Projection
Hader is of course really good. Actually “really good” sells him short. Hader is an elite pitcher, thanks primarily to his ability to strike batters out.
The chart below shows Hader’s career numbers since he made his debut with the Brewers in 2017. And as you can see, he’s been outstanding. He’s struck out 42.2% of all the batters he has faced. Not surprisingly, that has helped him keep runners off base and off the scoreboard. He has allowed opponents an OPS of .508. Overall, his career ERA is 2.50.
In short, on a per inning basis, no pitcher has been better at retiring batters.
Hader is again projected to be a very good reliever in 2024. Steamer projects him for the 6th highest K% (34.0%) and the 11th highest K%-BB% at 22.8%. His projected ERA is slightly elevated from those lofty heights, but it still excellent at 3.33. It’s the 24th best projected ERA of any pitcher for 2024. Again, he will be one of the best pitchers in the majors on a per inning basis.
Sorting Out Bullpen Roles
The signing of Hader will compel the team to sort out who is The Closer among their three excellent back of the bullpen arms. Ryan Pressly has done an excellent job as the Astros closer and since saves are what gets paid in the free agent market, it is unlikely he is happy being demoted to a setup man.
On a computer baseball team, it is easy to just pitch the best pitcher at the highest leverage spot, but when their are actual humans with their own emotions involved, it can create tension. Dealing with that among Hader, Pressly, and Bryan Abreu will be a key challenge for manager Joe Espada.
The good news is that the combination of those three relievers is excellent. Each has one of the 30 best projected ERAs among all Major League pitchers entering the 2024 season. The Astros will be in excellent shape to prevent runs late in close games.
Big Resources on the Bullpen
The signing of Hader continues the Astros trend of using significant resources to build a bullpen during the Golden Era. The front office has tended to place a great deal of their resources into the bullpen, whether on the free agent market (c.f. Neris, Joe Smith), re-signing its own players (Ryan Pressly twice, Rafael Montero), or on the trade market (Ken Giles, Roberto Osuna, Kendall Graveman twice, and Phil Maton).
In 2024, the Astros will pay $54.2M to their relievers. That’s the most of any team in baseball and the second highest share of payroll dedicated to the bullpen from any team. The employ the reliever with the 2nd, 6th, 10th, and 15th highest salaries in 2024.
The 2024 payroll reflects these choices. The Astros have committed $35.2 million to relief pitchers. That’s the second highest raw payroll among MLB teams as the sixth highest as a share of the team payroll. The employ the reliever with the 3rd, 8th, and 17th highest salaries for the upcoming season.
The Biggest Costs of Signing Hader are Borne Later
With that being noted, the financial implications of this move for 2024 are relative small. The costs are almost all borne by Jim Crane’s wallet. Crane is out Hader’s salary and the luxury tax payments he will have to make. But the 2024 opportunity costs are small. Hader will take the roster spot of Kendall Graveman, who recently had surgery that will keep him out for the 2024 season. No young player is blocked by this move.
The biggest costs come later. Hader accepted a qualifying offer, so the Astros will forfeit their second highest draft pick this year and money to sign international amateur free agents. That will cost the team some prospect capital into the future.
The other costs come to the future payroll. I had previously estimated that the Astros were $36 million under the luxury tax in 2025. The Hader signing commits half of that money. And it commits a large salary for a 60 innings of work (assuming health) through 2028. Spending on Hader today may crowd out potential spending in future for other players.
Specifically, it raises the question of whether the team has enough money to re-sign even one of Jose Altuve or Alex Bregman—the team’s two stars whose contracts expire after the 2024 season. That may require Jim Crane to pay the luxury tax multiple years in a row. Previously, Crane has only allowed a payroll over the luxury tax threshold once in his tenure as owner.2
And that is why I think the move for Hader fits in with the Verlander trade from last year. The Astros face a crossroads after this season because of the expiring contracts for Altuve and Bregman and the likelihood that in the near future the farm system is unlikely to produce star level, cost-controlled players as it has for the last decade.
Jim Crane’s response to this crossroads has been to push more chips on to the table for 2024. He has made a decision to focus on 2024 and while it is expensive to sign a free agent like Hader, his ability to shut down offenses for one inning means this is the most bang you can get for your buck.
There are lots of reasons to oppose this deal—it’s expensive; it’s unlikely to be a good use of resources in 2028; one can sort through waiver wire guys until one turns into a Will Harris clone; the money could go elsewhere.
But based on where the Astros are in 2024—facing a “must win” season—it’s a deal that works. The costs are real, but mostly in the future. And for the 2024 Astros, the future is now. And that future includes Josh Hader closing games.
Well, on the mound. Papelbon’s in-dugout action in the final year of that contract is not something we hope to see from Hader.
That was in 2020 and MLB suspended luxury tax payments that season because of well, I know you’re trying to forget about 2020. Apologies.