The Astros Direction This Offseason is Unclear.
There is a case for the Astros to go for it in 2025 and spend money to do so. There is also a case to trade an impending free agent for future value. Which direction is better is unclear.
The Winter Meetings being today, which means the MLB offseason will really kick into gear. But for the first time since Jim Crane became the Astros owner, the team’s direction in an offseason is unclear. They could go in multiple directions.
Over the last dozen years, it has not been difficult to understand how the Astros should proceed in the offseason, In Jim Crane’s first three years as Astros owner, the team was awful, and the front office's goal was clear—make decisions designed to help the team in the future when it got good. Some of those decisions involved trading away veteran players and some involved giving playing time to youngsters in the hope they developed in the future. They were win later moves.
Since 2015, the Astros have been a contender, and since 2017 they have been one of the favorites to reach the World Series each year. The team, as a result, has focused on trading prospects for current major league value that can help the team win now. It has prioritized veterans over prospects for playing time. They were win now moves.
And they were, for good reason—short-sighted moves. For example, after 2023 trade for Justin Verlander from the Mets—I wrote that Jim Crane had “staked out a clear path. It’s all in on 2023 and 2024 and will figure out 2025 at a later date.
Now comes time to figure out 2025. And as Chandler Rome wrote in The Athletic earlier this week, the Astros are “still in search of a direction.” They are still in the process of figuring out 2025.
What direction the Astros should take is a difficult question right now for several reasons. For one, the team is getting older and it’s record has trended in the wrong direction over the last two seasons. The farm system is not well regarded and does not seem likely to product a new regular in 2025.
And yet, the Astros are clearly not in a re-building mode. They remain the favorites in the AL West for 2025, though not the overwhelming one they were at the height of the Golden Era. They don’t need to tear things down to look to the future.
Some of these issues are natural. In assessing the Astros at the beginning of the offseason, Joe Sheehan wrote that “one of the pitfalls a successful team rarely avoids is becoming top-heavy” due to the erosion of payroll space and Prospects created by the previous win first decisions made by the front office.
These two writers also sketched out two potential directions for the Astros front office to take this offseason. Sheehan writes that “this may be their last chance to grab a third championship in the Jose Altuve Era, and they should treat it accordingly.”
That is to say, the Astros should make moves to maximize their chances of winning in 2025. As noted, they enter the season as the favorites in the AL West and the top team in the AL by the Depth Charts projections at Fangraphs.1
The most obvious way to do that is to sign Alex Bregman to play the Alex Bregman-sized hole the Astros currently have at third base. Bregman will want a contract that carries him into his late 30s, and will likely not match his dollar value at the end of his contract. But that’s a problem for the 2030 Astros. Obviously if Bregman signs elsewhere, the Astros could still sign a high dollar free agent to help at first base or in left field, so there are multiple options here.
Rome sketched out the other alternative in his article on the Astros direction, writing that “making either Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez available in trade discussions may be the easiest path for Houston to balance its present and future.”
Tucker and Valdez will be free agents after the 2025 season. Trading one (or both) this offseason represents an opportunity to gain some young players to help the team over the next several seasons in exchange for hobbling it some in 2025.
The Brewers did this last offseason when they traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. In exchange for the former Cy Young winner, the Brewers got a top 100 prospect (Joey Ortiz), a major league ready pitcher (DL Hall) and a draft pick. At the time, the Brewers return was described as “light” and “underwhelming” by national reporters.
But the move did help the Brewers in the long term. Ortiz had an excellent year handling third base for the NL Central Champions and will move to shortstop in 2025 to replace Willie Adames.
So that’s the case for each approach. Spend and try to win now. Trade a key player to get more value for future years. Both require good evaluation by the front office. If you make a trade for a young player, the front office needs to choose wisely to find players who can become regulars. If you sign a free agent, it needs to be one that not only helps in 2025, but ages gracefully to retain value in his later years.
I lean to the go for it approach. That is mostly a statement about my lack of faith that the farm system will produce many good regulars over the next several years to supplement any players acquired in a trade. The Astros best chance to win a bunch in the near future is in 2025. The front office should act like it.
Valid only until Juan Soto signs.