The Astros Are Playing Better

Don't Look, but the Astros have won 8 of their last 11, 17 of their last 27, are scoring more runs and have greatly increased their place in the standings. They are starting to look like the Astros.

On April 14, the headline I wrote was “A Stop-and-Start Start to the Season. A week later, I wrote the headline “Reflections on a ‘Meh’ Start to 2025. On May 24, I assessed the Astros as “As .500 a team as a .500 team can be.”

That seems to sum up not only my analysis of the Astros through the first 50 games of the season, but also that of a lot of Astros fans. It was an uninspiring start to the 2025 season.

It is time to reassess that conclusion. Since I published on the morning of May 24, the Astros have gone 8-3, their best stretch of the season. They won on May 24 and then won their next three games to put together a 4 game win streak—their best of the season. They then split a series against the Rays and won the series they completed late last night in Pittsburgh.

The most recent 11 games are the best stretch of the season, but they do not stand in isolation. The Astros were last below .500 after a May 6 loss to the Brewers. Since then, the Astros are 17-10, which is a 102 win pace. Mr. David, give us your assessment of that.

How have the Astros been winning since May 6th. The answer is that the offense has improved greatly. Through that May 6 loss to the Brewers, the Astros were scoring 3.89 runs per game. If you’re thinking that’s not a lot, you are correct. That would be the 25th highest rate in baseball.

In the 27 games since May 6, the Astros have scored 4.22 runs per game. There is still a ton of room for improvement there—the average major league team scored 4.31 runs per game. But it’s obviously better than what they were doing beforehand.

While the run scoring has modestly improved, the run prevention has hardly budged at all. Through May 6, the Astros allowed 3.66 runs per game. In the 27 games since then, they have allowed 3.74 runs per game. And you can see from the paragraph above, that’s well below the major league average.

The Standings Look Better

The winning has unsurprisingly helped the Astros in the standings. After the May 6 loss to the Brewers, the Astros were in 4th place in the AL West, not just 4 games behind the division leading Mariners. But also behind the Athletics and Rangers as well.

Since then, the Astros have gone 17-10, while the Mariners went 11-15 and the Rangers 11-16. In addition, the Athletics have gone 4-23! That has now put the Astros in first place in the division—a game and a half ahead of the Mariners.

You can see how the last month of baseball has affected the playoff odds in the AL West in the chart below. The Rangers bad month has moved them from a team with a 50-shot of making the playoffs to one with a 16% chance today. That’s equivalent odds to rolling a 4 on a standard 6-sided die. The Mariners playoff odds peaked in early May around 83%. They are still more likely than not to make the playoffs, but just barely, at 59%.

The story for the Astros is notably different than the other two AL West competitors. For both fun and because it’s easier (and also because it’s prettier), let’s just focus on the line for the Astros.

While there are bumps and wiggles in the line, it’s basically straight between Opening Day and May 6. It’s technically, down, but not by much. But since then, it’s up. Gradually at first, and then a sharp increase over the last two weeks as the Astros have run off their 8-3 stretch. It sits today at 72%.

I write this today to note the shift in the Astros play and their place in the standings. After describing their play early in the season as “stop and start, “meh” and “.500,” it’s time for all Astros to acknowledge this team is playing better. They are playing closer to the playoff team we have seen so often over the past decade of Astros baseball.