Reflections on a "Meh" Start to 2025

The Astros reached .500 last night. The team's strengths so far are balanced by its weaknesses. What that means for the rest of the season is unclear.

It’s not a good start to the Astros season, and it’s not a bad start. It’s a .500 start. And the overwhelming feeling it has produced in me is “meh.”

Last week, I described the Astros as having a “stop and start” start to the 2025 season. The team had a two week stretch of having each win followed immediately by a loss which was followed in the next game by a win.

At one level, the stop-and-start pattern ended on Saturday night, when the Astros won their second straight one-run game over the Padres. It was consecutive wins for the first time in the season.

But in other areas, the stop-and-start pattern continued. For example, one of the heroes on Saturday night was Christian Walker, who broke out of his early season slump by hitting a two-run shot into the Crawford Boxes to tie the game. Was Christian Walker’s season starting? It didn’t look like it on Sunday, when he posted an 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts. It prompted Joe Espada to give Walker the day off on Monday. Start-and-stop.

Another example of the stop-and-start nature of the start of the season was the Astros bullpen. Overall, the Astros bullpen has been a strength of the team, sporting a 2.80 ERA over the first 22 games of the season, 4^th best in the majors. The low ERA is not a statistical fluke. Astros relievers have struck out 28.1% of the batters they have faced, while walking only 9.0%. The 19.1% difference between the two is the 5^th best in the majors.

In short, the bullpen is doing its job. Except on Sunday night, it didn’t. Tayler Scott allowed a 420-foot blast from Fernando Tatis, Jr. that provided the winning margin in a 3-2 loss. Start-and-stop for another part of the team.

What is true in microcosm when one looks at one player (Walker) or one part of the team (the bullpen) applies to the team as a whole. The strengths it has shown so far are balanced by its weaknesses.

The Astros have gotten good performances from their pitching and defense so far this season. They have allowed only 79 runs through their first 22 games of the season, good for 3^rd lowest in the majors.

Yet for as good as the run prevention has been, the run scoring has been equally poor. The Astros have scored only 84 runs this season., tied with the Braves for 7^th lowest in the majors so far.

Do a small bit of math and you can see the Astros have a run differential of +5. It’s better to be in the positive in that stat than in the negative. But then one notes the Astros only moved into the positive in that category with their 7-run win on Monday night.

So far this season, the Astros are a .500 team with the run differential of a .500 team. Their record is a fair indication of how they have played so far.

Will the .500 play continue? It is always difficult to interpret the start of a season for those of us who understand small sample sizes and how they work.

In 2024, the Astros infamously got off to a miserable start, winning only seven of their first 26 games. The start was disastrous, but it was not representative. The Astros went 81-55 for the rest of the season, a .595 winning percentage, winning the AL West.

In 2015, the Astros had an early 10 game win streak to push their record to 18-7. Again, it was not representative, as they went 68-69 the rest of the season, though that was good enough to snag a Wild Card spot that season.

In short, it’s hard to know what the .500 start means. Is it just a “meh” period that will be washed out by mostly good play over the course of a season. Variance is great across a baseball season, so teams always have .500 periods, even really good teams. This could just be a “meh” part of the season that will be washed out by better play over the other 5 months of the season.

Or the .500 start could be representative of a .500 team. The Astros could be in for their worst season since that 2015 team. Or they could be a team that repeats what it did last season, being the best team in the AL West over the long haul of the season.

The Astros have been balanced so far this season, playing .500 ball. Their strengths are matched by their weaknesses. After 22 games, we have learned little about the ultimate fate of the 2025 Astros. We’ll have to watch more baseball to find out.