Reflections on 89 Wins and What's To Come
The Astros clinched a playoff berth. It was a struggle, primarily due to regression in run prevention this season. But the playoffs offer an opportunity to put that all in the rear view mirror.
Thanks to a shutout pitching performance and the game’s only extra base hit by Jose Abreu, the Astros defeated the Diamondbacks 1-0 on Saturday night. That win, combined with the Mariners loss to the Rangers in Seattle, clinched a playoff spot for the Astros.
The 2022 Astros season was something of a fever dream. The Astros won 106 games, a total reached by only 16 teams in baseball history. They set the franchise record for fewest runs allowed with 518, and led the American League West by 9 games or more throughout the second half of the season.
The 2023 season was of course not that. The Astros trailed the Rangers in the division throughout the season. They seemed to take control of the division with a sweep in Arlington in early September, only to give away the lead in a 3-9 stretch that featured 9 games against the 100 loss Royals and Athletics.
The Run Prevention Regressed
From a performance standpoint, the major difference between the two seasons was in run prevention. As mentioned, the 2022 Astros gave up only 518 runs, which as second lowest in baseball. In 2023, the Astros have allowed 179 more runs.1 That’s over a run more per game. The 2023 Astros are 11th best in the majors in run prevention.
Some of that decline in run prevention is on the team’s defense. Defensive efficiency measures the share of balls hit into play2 that a defense turns into outs. In 2022, the Astros has a defensive efficiency of .719, 3rd best in baseball. This year, they are at .696, 12th best in the majors.
Some of that decline in run prevention is on the team’s starting pitchers. The 2022 rotation was otherworldly, keeping its ERA below 3.00 while throwing a league leading 950 innings. The 2023 rotation has been average, sporting an ERA of 4.19.3 Obviously, the defensive regression is part of that, but in the things pitchers control Astros starters have declined. Their strikeout rate has declined and their walk rate has increased, and they have given up 32 more home runs than in 2022.
The decline was caused in part by injuries to key starters like Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers, mild regression from top of the rotation arms Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander, and big regression from Cristian Javier.4
Nothing sums up the Astros rotation situation in 2023 than this—JP France has been vital to getting to the playoffs—words no Astros fan could have imagined saying back in Spring Training.
The Struggles of 2023 Should Make Us Appreciate 2022 More
From a fan standpoint, the 2023 season has been maddening. The Astros never had a big winning streak or stretch of big wins. They had a handful of very good series (mostly in Arlington), but never put together a big stretch. They did have two notable losing stretches—one in June that put them at their lowest point and again in September when they fell out of the division lead.
Some of the frustration comes from the expectations of Astros fans. Of course, those expectations were relatively reasonable. The Astros had won the AL West in each of the last five full regular seasons and had won 100 games in four of those five seasons.
But that’s unusual. It is rare to win 100 games. It had only happened one time before the team moved into its golden era in the 2017 season. Seasons like this one, when the team wins more than it loses but does not make a laughing stock of the division race, are more common.
I wrote an article after last season titled “An Appreciation of 106 Wins and a Wildly Successful Regular Season.” In the article I said I wrote it “to make sure that we appreciate the 2022 regular season, the second best by record in team history.” The case for appreciating that season and the 100 win seasons in 2017, 2018, and 2019 only grows stronger after having watched the team win 89 (or possibly 90) games in 2023.
The Crapshoot of the Playoffs
I also noted it was necessary to celebrate the regular season accomplishments of the 2022 Astros “because I know that the accomplishments of the 2022 regular season will quickly fall by by the wayside as the playoffs begin.”
That certainly turned out to be true. The 2022 team will be remembered more for its 11-2 blitzing of playoff competition and raising the team’s second World Series banner. The playoffs are where memories are truly made in contemporary baseball.
And that lesson applies once again in 2023 as it did in 2022. In the “appreciation for 106 wins” article I quoted Billy Beane from the book Moneyball: “'The playoffs are a crapshooot.”
In short series, anything can happen. Just look at those series against the A’s. No, not this year’s series against the A’s, the 2022 series against the A’s. The 2022 Astros lost 5 of 6 games against the 100 loss A’s in a stretch of games in July. Baseball happens.
And frankly, it happened in the Astros favor in 2022 in the playoffs. As much as we want to attribute the Astros success in October 2022 to the skill of the pitching staff, the power of Yordan’s bat and the steel of Jeremy Pena, good fortune smiled on the Astros. It is a theme I harped on back then.
Of course, skill matters as well, and despite the frustrations of the 2023 season, this is a team with lots of talented players. Despite having the 5th best record (as of now) in the American League, Fangraphs lists the Astros as the American League team most likely to win the World Series.5
Using his ZiPS projection system, Dan Szymborski found that the Astros have the 2nd best “projected roster strength” of any team in baseball, despite the mediocre 2023 season. Further, he found that the “playoff strength” Astros were even stronger.
It is always an encouraging sign when a computer agrees with my innate expectations. This should be a better team than we have seen.
Now they have a chance to show that in the games that really matter.
Here’s to playoff baseball 2023 and our team being in it.
With today’s game still to go.
So it excludes strikeouts, walks, and home runs.
For comparison, the ERA across all of major league baseball this season is 4.34.
In 2022, Javier had a 2.54 ERA in 25 starts. This season, he has declined to a 4.67 ERA in 30 starts.
At 12.5%.