Quality, Consistency, and Another Winning Record: A Fourth Sixth Report
The Astros had a winning record in the Fourth Sixth, their 10th straight winning Sixth. Their run prevention, led by the starting pitchers, was outstanding.
Trey Mancini. Great trade deadline pickup? Or the greatest trade deadline pickup?
Astros fans started debating the Stephen Colbert-style question early in last night’s rout of the Guardians, as Trey Mancini homered in his first two at bats. The second one—a two-out grand slam—turned the game into a laugher and the Astros closed out Cleveland 9-3.
After a frustrating series against the Red Sox, the two wins over the Guardians served as a reminder of the quality of this ballclub. They can hold other teams down, and when they hit the ball, they win.
The win last night against the Guardians also marked the 108th game that the Astros have played this season. That is notable because it marks the end of the fourth sixth of the season. The Astros have now played two-thirds of their 2022 season. And the great news is that they are among the best teams in baseball. They are a near certainty to win their division and, boosted in particular by an excellent starting rotation, have as good a chance as any team in October.
As a reminder, here at Breathin' Orange Fire, we divide the baseball season up into sixths. Each sixth is 27 games, which is very close to a month. I use sixths because it is easier to compare equal sections of the season--all sixths are 27 games. In the first half of the season, using sixths allows one to easily play #onpaceguy. We can't do that in the back half, but we can assess where the team is at and what is succeeding (and what is not).
Overall Record: 70-38 (.648)
Record This Sixth: 17-10 (.630)
On Pace for a Record of: 105-57
The Astros played 9 games against the Oakland A’s during this Sixth and went 3-6 in those games. Against the other teams on their schedule, they won 14 and lost only 4. We can try to draw out a bunch of conclusions from that anomaly, but my basic take is “That’s baseball.”
The emotional heart of the sixth was the five game stretch immediately after the All-Star break in which the Astros swept the Yankees in the jerry-rigged double header at Minute Maid Park and then swept a series in Seattle to end the Mariner’s 14-game winning streak. The five game winning streak was the best glimpse that when fully focused, this is one of the best teams in baseball.
But it is hard to maintain focus in an every day sport like baseball. So the team sputtered some, especially when they got swept in Oakland in the series following the trip to Seattle. But the team responded once again by taking three of four from the Mariners in a series at Minute Maid Park.
This back and forth between wins and losses is the standard practice of baseball. Good teams still lose a lot of games and bad teams still win a lot of them. The nice thing about measuring the season in equal lengths is that you can avoid the biases created by arbitrary end points and focus on the broader pattern.
The Astros had a winning record for the sixth. They have had a winning record every sixth this season…and they had a winning record in every sixth last season. That’s 10 straight sixths with a winning record. It’s a remarkable level of consistency, and a reflection of how a good a ballclub this is.
Team Offense & MLB Rank.
R/G: 4.45 (14th). OBP: .318 (10th). SLG: .424 (5th). OPS: .742 (5th). OPS+: 111 (4th).
Is the offense actually good? Some numbers indicate that they are. The team is 5th in the majors in slugging percentage and in OPS, and in fourth in OPS+. They can hit the ball far and that puts them ahead of most teams in baseball.
But the ability to hit the ball far has not led to run production commensurate with how the team is hitting the ball. The Astros are only slightly above league average in scoring runs.
Looking at the number, the Astros have a .743 OPS with the bases empty, a .741 OPS with runners on base, and a .746 OPS with runners in scoring position. There is essentially no difference between these three numbers.
It feels like it has become a constant complaint from Astros fans that the team cannot hit with runners in scoring position, but it turns out that is not true. They hit just as well with runners in scoring position as they do with the bases empty.
After improving in run scoring for each of the first three sixths of the season, the offense took a step back in the fourth sixth, scoring only 4.35 runs per game. That is right about league average for the season.
The team’s batting average for the sixth (.241) and on base percentage (.311) were right around league average, but the slugging percentage (.408) was above it (major leaguers are slugging .396 for the season). So the offensive should score more runs than it did in the fourth sixth. And frankly, they should score more runs over the season than they have. At some point, their run scoring should meet up with the stats behind it.
But they should have scored more runs throughout the season, and haven’t yet. We’ll see if and when that changes.
Team Pitching and MLB Rank
RA/G: 3.29 (2nd). FIP: 3.47 (4th). WHIP: 1.08 (2nd). K/9: 9.1 (5th). BB/9: 2.8 (8th)
While there are questions about how good the offense is, there are no such questions about the the pitching staff. It is good. Real good.
And they have been the biggest key to the Astros winning ways this season. While the offense should score more, they have not. And have taken a step back this season. But the improvements in the pitching staff have increased run prevention and helped the team improve its record over last season.
Over the fourth Sixth, the Astros allowed only 3.04 runs per game. As I noted, the offense only scored just over 4 runs a game in the sixth. But in only eight games did the Astros pitchers allow more than 4 runs. They may not be scoring as many runs as they should but they don’t need to. The pitchers are keeping the opponents off the board and making the modest run scoring stand up for more wins than losses.
The pitchers improved in the fourth Sixth. In particular, they struck out more batters, whiffing 9.6 batters per nine innings. And they have also improved their control, walking only 2.4 batters per nine innings in the sixth. It the best set of pitching we have seen from an Astros staff since 2019.
The foundation of the good pitching this sixth was the starting rotation. Over the sixth, Astros starters threw 168.1 innings, which is 6.2 innings per start. That led the majors—and led it by a lot. It’s 14.1 innings more than the 2nd place team (the White Sox) and 39 more than the average major league team in that time period. Those are innings that the Astros bullpen does not have to pitch.
And these are effective innings. Astros starters have an ERA of 2.78 in the sixth, the second best in the majors. So the Astros are getting more innings and better innings from their starting pitchers than any of their competition. It’s their key to winning games.
Team Fielding and MLB Rank
Fielding Runs Above Average 38 (2nd). Defensive Runs Saved: 46 (4th). Ultimate Zone Rating: 10.2 (6th). Outs Above Average 26 (2nd). Errors: 52 (10).
The defense slumped in the fourth sixth, as the team dropped an ordinal rank in FRAA, DRs, and UZR. They committed 12 errors in the sixth, uncharacteristically high.
Yet, stepping back from the decline in the fourth sixth, the defensive numbers once again show the high quality of defense the Astros play. And despite of the defensive slump in the fourth sixth, the Astros continue to lead all MLB teams with a defensive efficiency of .728. Defensive efficiency measures the percentage of batted balls by the offense that are turned into an out. Overall, the Astros do this better than any other team in the majors. And this is a big help in preventing opponents from scoring runs.
Notable Player Performances
Aledmys Diaz .299/372/.545. 4 HR. 9 RBI. 15 Runs. 163 wRC+
Michael Brantley went on the IL in late June, and Diaz has been primarily tasked with replacing him in left field. As you can see, he’s been up to the task, getting hot during the past sixth. It is little discussed, but Diaz is a free agent after the season, and it will be difficult to find a bench player as talented as he.
Kyle Tucker .174/.253/.326. .182 BABIP. .253 wOBA
Tucker slumped hard during the sixth, batting only .174 in 96 plate appearances. But the low BABIP number (league average is .290 this season) shows that the slump is mostly caused by bad luck. Tucker has maintained above average strikeout and walk rates, so he’s seeing the ball well. It’s just finding gloves too often
Jake Meyers .159/.243/.222. 39.2% K. 6.8 BB%
This is the opposite of Tucker—a slump caused by not seeing the ball well out of a pitcher’s hand. It feels like Meyers is striking out every time he comes to the plate, but with 29 strike outs in 74 plate appearances in the sixth, the real numbers aren’t that far off.
Jose Urquidy 5 GS. 34 IP. 2.38 ERA. 27 SO. 5 BB. .167 BA Against
In early June, I asked “what’s wrong with Jose Urquidy? Since then, he’s had a 2.29 ERA in 59 innings over 9 starts. If he read the article and got mad, you’re welcome. But more analytically, he’s reduced the batting average of opposing hitters from .322 to .156.
Their Place in the Race
Overall Record: 70-38 (.648)
1st Place. 12.5 Games Ahead of Seattle
Run Differential: +130
Expected Record: 69-39
In my Third Sixth report, I asked “Is this section necessary for the rest of the season?”
Thanks in large part to winning six of their last seven against the Mariners, the Astros maintain a huge lead in the American League West. If the Astros went .500 for the rest of the season, they would win 97 games. To win 97 games and catch the Astros, the Mariners would have to go 40-15 for the rest of the season. It’s not no chance, but they would have to maintain a 117 win pace, which is hard to do.
Speaking of it being hard to maintain a 117 win pace, the Yankees are no longer doing that. Since June 23, they are 19-19, and in that time, they have lost 7 games on the Astros for the best record in the American League. As I write this morning, the Astros are only 1/2 a game out for the top seed in the American League playoffs.
The best record in the American League gets the top seed in the AL playoffs.1 Thus, the top seed gets home field advantage in any playoff round, including Game 7 of the American League Championship Series against the Yankees. That has been valuable for the Astros before.
But getting the top seed in the American League playoffs is not all ice cream and cherries. The way the records fall this year, the second seed will play the winner of a series between the AL Central champion (currently the Twins) and the Wild Card team with the worst record. Those are the two worst AL playoff teams this year. And thus, it is a better second round matchup than the top seed will play—currently it would be the winner or a Toronto-Tampa Bay series.
One can debate which advantage is more valuable for the Astros—Game 7 in a theoretical ALCS matchup, or an easier path to getting to the ALCS. Good arguments can be made either way. But the fact that we get to have that debate as Astros fans is a testament to the quality and consistency of our favorite team. For the tenth sixth in a row, they have a winning record. And for the sixth season in a row, they are headed for October.
And the Astros hold the tiebreaker over the Yankees, thanks to winning the season series against the Yankees 5 games to 2.