The ZiPS projections favor the Astros because of their larger number of stars and having the best pitcher. But the Rangers could exceed their projections thanks to their rookies and prospect depth.
I wonder whether deGrom is able to return post-ASG and give Texas a stretch-run bump similar to a trade deadline acquisition. Of course I understand these projections can't factor in any deadline deals but a somewhat competent deGrom could be the equivalent to getting a trade deadline player bump (which is something GM's love to note following trade deadline inactivity).
One item I kept thinking about while reading this post was injuries. You made a good note about Foscue providing depth should an injury occur on the IF for TEX. This insures against their biggest contributors (Semien, Seager, and (to a lesser extent) Jung) Contrast that to just how dire straights would be for Houston to sustain an injury to Altuve or Bregman. I recognize that Dubon kept things somewhat stable last year, but it seems reasonable to question whether he could do so again. I would hope he could but you never know.
On the flip, any more injuries to Texas's pitching could be dire. If I'm not mistaken, not only Scherzer and deGrom set to miss the first few months of the year, but Mahle is also slated to miss the start of the season as well.
I wonder whether deGrom is able to return post-ASG and give Texas a stretch-run bump similar to a trade deadline acquisition. Of course I understand these projections can't factor in any deadline deals but a somewhat competent deGrom could be the equivalent to getting a trade deadline player bump (which is something GM's love to note following trade deadline inactivity).
One item I kept thinking about while reading this post was injuries. You made a good note about Foscue providing depth should an injury occur on the IF for TEX. This insures against their biggest contributors (Semien, Seager, and (to a lesser extent) Jung) Contrast that to just how dire straights would be for Houston to sustain an injury to Altuve or Bregman. I recognize that Dubon kept things somewhat stable last year, but it seems reasonable to question whether he could do so again. I would hope he could but you never know.
On the flip, any more injuries to Texas's pitching could be dire. If I'm not mistaken, not only Scherzer and deGrom set to miss the first few months of the year, but Mahle is also slated to miss the start of the season as well.