Observations on the First Week of the Season
Winning is Better Than Losing. Julks is Playing a Lot. Yainer Is Not. The Starters Are Not Pitching Deep Into Games, In Part Because Their BABIP is High. Small Samples --> Weird Stats.
With their 8-2 victory over the Tigers on Wednesday afternoon, the Astros completed their first week of the season.
It is difficult to write about a team’s first week, or even their first month. Baseball is a game that is played out over 162 games in the regular season, and a seven game sample is too small to make any useful conclusions.
Many have written “Even though it’s early…” And the take the follows is never a strong one.
But risking that, I will make a conclusion about the victory today in the context of how the season has gone so far. And that is by quoting Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh, who once said, “I love winning…You hear what I’m saying? It’s better than losing.”
Here are several observations on how the Astros have played in the first week of the season.
Julks Up; Yainer Down
The biggest surprise of the first week. Corey Julks. And the surprise is not how he has played, but how much he has played. Julks has started in five of the first seven games; only the team’s stars have played more.1
Julks was not projected to make the opening day roster and only seemed to make it because of Michael Brantley’s injury, and MLB Pipeline ranks Julks as the team’s 30th best prospect. But Dusty Baker has apparently taken a liking to Julks. He’s played him more than Chas McCormick already.
Julks had a productive day on Wednesday, going 2 for 3 with a double (his first extra base hit) and an RBI sacrifice fly in the 4th inning.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that Julks has not been that productive. He has 6 hits in 19 at bats, so that’s a .316 average. But he has not added to that average. He has only the one extra base hit and has not drawn a walk. He’s struck out in 7 of this 20 plate appearances. And his high batting average is boosted by a .500 BABIP.
Obviously, these are ridiculously small samples, but Julks needs to demonstrate some patience and power to be a contributing player. The fact that Baker is playing Julks so much indicates he thinks that will come.
If Julks is playing more than expected, Yainer Diaz is playing less than expected. He has started in only two games.
Diaz hit .306/.356/.542 in 486 plate appearances in the minor in 2022, earning a promotion from Corpus Christi to Sugar Land midseason, and a callup to the big club in September.
But Diaz’s playing time for the Astros has been limited so far. Dusty Baker only put him in the lineup for 9 plate appearances and 2 starts in September 2022. The front office was compelled to option him back to AAA in late September because he played so little.
Diaz is a big bat for a catcher, though reviews of his defense are modest. But with the Astros employing three catchers on their 26-man roster, my expectation was that Diaz would be in the lineup frequently as the DH or in left field (where he has some experience). When Diaz got the start on Saturday behind the plate, I thought it meant more playing time for him. But Diaz has not gotten a start since then.
He doesn’t have a hit in his nine plate appearances this season, but again, that is too few to make any firm conclusions. I’m hoping Diaz gets back in the lineup quickly.
Are the Starters Going Long Enough?
Yesterday, Cristian Javier went 6 innings to pick up the win. On Tuesday, Framber Valdez pitched 7 innings. But the first time through the rotation, no starter went more than 5 innings, and Jose Urquidy (4.0 IP) and Hunter Brown (4.2 IP) did not finish 5 innings.
Overall, the Astros have gotten 5.12 innings per start so far this season, which is very close to the 5.21 innings per start from the average major leaguer in 2022, and higher than the 5.05 innings per start average so far in 2023. But of course, we expect Astros starters to go longer than the average pitcher. They did in 2022 as the Astros led the majors in innings pitched by their starting pitchers.
One reason that the Astros starters are not going as long this year as we expect—they are giving up a lot of hits. Each of the Astros five starters are giving up over 10 hits per nine innings pitched so far this season. Overall, the starters are giving up a BABIP, that is Batting Average on Balls In Play, of .393. Overall, BABIPs are up in Major League Baseball this season due to the shift ban. But the average is up to .301. The Astros BABIP should come down.
And if it does, the starting pitchers look to be in good shape. They have struck out 38 batters and walked only 8 in 36.1 innings on the mound so far. They have only allowed 3 home runs for a FIP of 3.02. Their actual ERA is 3.96. So we have every reason to expect run prevention from the starters to trend toward the FIP number and away from the ERA number as more games are played.
Fun With Early Numbers
Early season statistics are of course warped by the small sample sizes. Some examples:
Alex Bregman has reached base only 7 times this season—4 hits and 3 walks. But he has scored 5 runs (Thanks, Yordan).
Corey Julks has a higher batting average (.316) than on base percentage (.300). Julks has not drawn a walk, but he hit a sacrifice fly in yesterday’s game. That does not count as an at bat, but does count as a plate appearance.
Six batters have an extra base hit. Seven batters do not. (Ok, this is less fun).
Phil Maton in 3.1 IP. 1 hit allowed. 1 walk. 2 hit batters.
Enjoy the off-day and on to Minnesota. Stay warm, Julia.
Abreu, Bregman, Pena, and Tucker have started all seven games. Yordan Alvarez has started six games so far.