Is an Ace Reliever Worth a Big Contract?
Is an Ace Reliever Worth a Big Contract?
Relief Pitchers Are Volatile, But If Any Reliever Can Provide High Quality Innings Over the Long Term, It's One with the Skills of Ryan Pressly.
News broke on Tuesday night that the Astros has signed closer Ryan Pressly to a contract extension. Robert Murray of Fansided.com had the scoop, and reported that the deal was for two years and $30 million with a vesting option for the 2025 season. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported more details on the contract, noting it was worth $14 million a year with a “$14 million option for 2025 [that] will vest if he appears in 50 games in both 2023 and 2024.” If Pressly’s option does not vest, the Astros will have to buy out his contract for $2 million.
Often, when these stories break, the team confirms them shortly afterwards, but we have yet to get a confirmation from the Astros PR department. However, we did get this tweet below from Pressly’s wife Kat, featuring the words “Stros —> 2024” and big smiles from Kat and Ryan, and an even bigger smile from their son Wyatt. I call that confirmation.
I’ll cover Pressly the player, and what the Astros have gotten from him in his three and a half years with the franchise. I’ll then look at Pressly the contract, and whether this is fair market value for an reliever of Pressly’s quality.
Pressly the Player
The Astros acquired Ryan Pressly from the Twins at the trade deadline in 2018 in exchange for prospects Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino. They put him a high leverage role immediately, and have reaped the rewards ever since.
In his 162.2 innings in an Astros uniform, Pressly has posted a 2.21 ERA with a WHIP of 0.94. He’s struck out 214 batters while allowing only 35 walks for a ridiculous 6.11 K/BB ratio. Since 2019,1 Pressly has been the third most valuable reliever in all of baseball. He’s accrued 4.7 fWAR, behind only Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader.
Pressly served as a set-up man to Roberto Osuna in 2018 and 2019, but succeeded to the closer role in 2020 and did that job with aplomb. He’s saved 38 games over those two seasons and blown only 6 saves. And he was especially sharp in 2021, posting a 2.25 ERA with 81 strikeouts and only 13 walks in 64 innings. Pressly was rewarded with an All Star game invitation.
A look at Pressly’s Statcast page shows the secret to his success—high spin rates on his pitches. In 2021, Pressly stood at the 97th percentile in spin rate for his fastball. And his curve ball was even better—at the 100th percentile. The high spin rate creates big whiff rates (84th percentile) and chase rates (95th percentile). And when you combine that with excellent control (92nd percentile walk rates), you can see why Pressly’s expected ERA and wOBA’s are at the 97th percentile in all of major league baseball.
The Pressly Contract
Of course, the Astros are not signing Pressly to pitch in the past. They are signing him to pitch in 2023, 2024, and (potentially) 2025. Will he be worth this contract in those seasons?
The extension that Pressly has agreed to is actually similar to a previous extension he signed with the Astros. Prior to the 2019 season, Pressly signed an extension which covered two free agent seasons (2020 and 2021) and included a vesting option based on games pitched for the third season (2022). It’s the exact same structure as the new extension that Pressly agreed to, but with one key difference. In the new extension, Pressly will be paid more money?
In 2020 and 2021, Pressly made $8.75M, and, because his option vested due to him pitching in more than 50 games in 2021, he will make $10M this season. In the new contract, Pressly will get a raise to $14 million.
As Murray put it in on Twitter 'The contract extension puts Pressly, 33, in the top-5 highest paid relievers in baseball in terms of AAV.” AAV stands for “Average Annual Value” and the relievers who make more AAV than Pressly are among the most respected veteran relievers in the game. Raisel Iglesias ($14.5M), Kenley Jansen ($16M), Craig Kimbrel ($16M), Aroldis Chapman ($18M), and Liam Hendriks ($18M).
Will Pressly be among the handful of best relievers in baseball in 2023 and 2024? It is not easy to say yes for a couple of reasons. First of all, as Nobel prize winning physicist Niels Bohr said “Predictions are hard; especially about the future.” We don’t have crystal balls, and the idea that they can tell the future is of course a myth.
But beyond general uncertainty, uncertainty among relievers is even greater. For one, relief pitcherd only throw 60 to 70 innings in full season, and can be subject to all sorts of weird effects due to sample sizes. In addition, relief pitchers tend to be more volatile that others because they often lack good command or a wide variety of pitches to vary their strategic plan against batters.
And we often see quality relievers develop out of seemingly nowhere as a move to the bullpen allows starters to throw with greater velocity and drop their fringe offerings for their best pitches (e.g. Kendall Graveman in 2021). And the ability to tinker in short samples has unlocked many pitchers to go from replacement level players to quality relievers (e.g. Ryne Stanek in 2021).
The volatility of relievers leads some to conclude that it is never a good idea to sign one to a big contract. You can find as good a production from nearly anonymous bullpen guys thanks to good scouting and coaching (e.g. the Mariners bullpen in 2021). But that perspective presumes you are good at scouting and coaching—hardly a given in any instance, and one that requires time, effort, trial, and error to get right.
Certainty is prized in an uncertain world. And what Pressly offers is as close to certainty as a reliever can provide. He has maintained a strikeout rate that is at least 24% higher than his walk rate in each of his last four seasons. And that is because the high spin rate Pressly demonstrated in 2021 is no fluke. Baseball Savant shows that he has had a spin rate on his fastball at the 89th percentile or higher every year of his career. He curveball spin rate has been even higher—at the 96th percentile or higher. Pressly’s core skills are excellent and that is reflected in his numbers.
They are also reflected in his projections for future play. On each player page, Fangraphs includes a three-year projection based on the ZiPS system. I have placed a screenshot of this projection for Pressly below. It shows promising numbers for Pressly, anticipating that he will continue to have high strikeout rates (projected at around 11.6 K/9) and low walk rates (projected around 2.3 BB/9). He is projected for an ERA under 3.00 in each season. Pressly will age over the course of this extension into his mid-30s, but his stats look like he’s 25 forever.
Or to put it another way, Pressly is projected to remain among the best relievers in baseball. He is projected to have the 5th, 7th, and 7th best ERA among MLB relievers over the 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons respectively.
It is risky to give a contract to any pitcher, as the chances they suffer a serious arm injury are always higher than anyone can stomach. And those risks are increased for any reliever due to the greater uncertainty associated with that position. So there is no sure thing.
But Pressly provides as much certainty as possible given his position. His combination of high spin rate and pinpoint control has led to outstanding numbers in his time in Houston. His excellent base of skills make his as good a bet as anyone to continue putting up outstanding numbers from the bullpen, even into his mid-30s.
So let’s hope—and have some faith—that he’ll meet those projections. And more importantly, let’s enjoy watching Ryan Pressly in the 9th this year. He’s really good at his job, and he’ll get to keep doing it in Houston for more seasons past this one.
Unfortunately, Fangraphs allows for date ranges of three years of less, so I can’t measure this from the date of his trade to Houston.