I Will Always Literally Love Justin Verlander

An appreciation of Justin Verlander's awesome tenure as an Astro. And a reflection on why the 2023 Astros are better off spending money in other areas.

It began with one of the strangest nights ever. After sunset on August 31, 2017, word leaked that the Astros had acquired Justin Verlander in a trade with the Tigers. Then the rugged was pulled out from under us. New reports indicated that Verlander—who had the right to veto a trade because of the 10-and-5 rule¹—had rejected the trade. Finally, just after midnight here on the East Coast, a final report leaked—Verlander had accepted the trade.

The next day, I put on my Astros cap, like I do many days. And I took an extra look at myself in the mirror and thought, “Justin Verlander is going to wear this cap now, and I look a little more handsome than yesterday wearing it.”

Justin Verlander made us all feel a little better as Astros fans, even before he even put on our team’s uniform. Verlander was of course about as famous as a baseball player gets these days. I knew he was an excellent pitcher with a reputation of being an old-school workhorse in a game that was rapidly moving to more and more innovations in bullpen usage. And I knew he was dating Kate Upton, the supermodel. Who doesn’t want to associate themselves with that?

The Astros had traded 3 prospects for Justin Verlander, as much of a cultural icon as baseball could offer. But what Houston needed in 2017 was Verlander the ace.

And goodness, did Verlander deliver that October.

He won two games in the ALDS, throwing a quality start in Game 1 and throwing 2.2 bullpen innings in the clinching Game 4. In the ALCS, he gave up only 1 run in a complete game victory in Game 2, allowing the Astros to win in dramatic fashion when Carlos Correa’s double and Gary Sanchez’s dropped ball allowed Jose Altuve to score the walk off winner. The Astros then went on to lose 3 straight in Yankee Stadium, putting them on the brink of elimination. Verlander saved their bacon with 7 shutout innings, winning Game 6. 24 curveballs later, the Astros were in the World Series, and 7 games later, they won it.

And Jose Altuve summed it up. “I literally love Justin Verlander.”

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"I literally love Justin Verlander." —@JoseAltuve27 ❤️⚾️😍 Via @MLBONFOX snpy.tv/2ywpVsn

Verlander’s first World Series win was our first World Series win. And he was the hero.

Justin Verlander. Father. Husband. Champion. Astro Legend.

Better in Houston Than Detroit

The experience of September and October of 2017 began a long period of dominance for Verlander in an Astros uniform. In five seasons on the mound for the Astros, Verlander made 102 regular season starts with a 2.26 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 7.24 K/BB ratio.

Since the start of the 2018 season, Verlander ranks 6th in fWAR, 4th in K-BB%, 2nd in opponent batting average, and first in WHIP and K/BB ratio among all qualified major league pitchers. He has “won” 61 games and two of his three Cy Young Awards.

Verlander, of course, became a very famous pitcher with the Tigers. He won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2006, was named to six All Star games as a Tiger, and won the Cy Young Award and the AL MVP Award in 2011. It is a remarkable record.

But his numbers were better in Houston. In 13 seasons in Detroit, Verlander had an ERA of 3.49 in 380 starts. He had a WHIP of 1.19, struck out 8.5 batters per nine innings and walked only 2.7 per nine. These are all excellent numbers. And on each one, he exceeded them in Houston, usually handily.

In Houston, Verlander embraced the detailed scouting reports and analytics provided by the team. Verlander laid out this embrace in a 2018 interview with Ted Berg of USA Today.

“When I first got to the organization, they kind of showed me some of the stuff that they can do, and try to do. Having kind of dealt with some injuries recently before that, before I got to the Astros, I was open to collecting as much information as I could that would help me on the mound –a s opposed to when I was younger, when it was kind of, ‘Just rear back and throw it.’

“When you get older, every competitive advantage is an advantage, and I wanted that. I joke with guys in the organization that I was probably the first pitcher to come over and ask for more information, because they can kind of give you a lot. I want more, Give me everything you’ve got.”

Verlander meshed well with the pitching philosophies of pitching coach Brent Strom that permeated the entire Astros organization. He started throwing more 4-seam fastballs at the top of the strike zone to contrast with his excellent slider and curveball. He also started throwing his change-up—his least effective pitch—less often.

The other remarkable fact about Verlander’s time in Houston in comparison to his time in Detroit—he pitched more in the playoffs in Houston. In Detroit, Verlander pitched 98.1 innings in 14 playoff starts across five different seasons. In Houston, Verlander pitched 109.1 innings across 18 playoff starts (and that one relief appearance in the 2017 ALDS).

Verlander pitched a ton in the playoffs in Detroit, and even more in Houston.

Verlander will undoubtedly wear a Tigers cap on his Hall of Fame plaque, but his years in Houston will have greatly helped him to get there.

Two Houston legends from 2017.

Where This Leaves the Astros

Of course, I write about Verlander because he signed today with the New York Mets on a 2-year, $43.3 million a year contract, with a vesting option for a third year. Verlander will be wearing Orange and Blue again next season, but it will be a different shade of both colors.

The moves the Astros had made this offseason had indicated they were not likely to sign Verlander. It was easy to anticipate that Verlander would sign a contract for this amount of money—it’s the exact same annual salary that Max Scherzer signed for last season. And the Astros moves this off-season—signing Jose Abreu to play first base and re-signing Rafael Montero—indicated they were willing to spend their money in different places than in the rotation.

And that makes sense. The Astros have an excellent starting rotation even having lost the American League’s best pitcher. Framber Valdez finished fifth in the Cy Young voting this year, Cristian Javier threw the bulk of two no-hitters last season—one in the frickin’ World Series—Lance McCullers is a high quality veteran, Jose Urquidy is steady as a back end of the rotation starter, and Luis Garcia is an enigma, capable of taking a big leap, or regressing.

And of course, debuting last season was the Astros top prospect—Hunter Brown. And he looked awesome, striking out 22 batters in 20 major league innings and earning a spot on the postseason roster, where he again impressed, with 3.2 shutout innings.

On the one hand, it is difficult to replace a superstar player, even with a top prospect. On the other, Astros fans only have to go back to 2022 to see a successful example of this team doing the same thing.

The choice to pivot to spending payroll resources filling holes in the offense rather than the rotation makes sense in light of the depth of the rotation. The Astros needs are in the lineup. They have addressed one hole at first base and are rumored to be working on signing a left-handed hitting outfielder to play left field. Lengthening the lineup will help ameliorate some of the expected regression of players who led the team to 106 wins in 2022.

Verlander’s Ironic 2022

There is an irony to Verlander’s year in 2022. In writing up the Verlander signing last offseason, I noted that the Astros rotation ”is deep with quality major league pitchers,” but lacked a “true ace.” Thus, Verlander met their need for “a top-of-the-line pitcher who could pitch Game 1 of the 2022 ALDS.” In short, the Astros signed Verlander to star in the postseason and could absorb whatever he did in the regular season.

But the Astros got an outstanding regular season out of Verlander in 2022, as his arm looked as good as ever despite having had Tommy John Surgery in the Fall of 2020. He had a brief IL stint in September due to a calf strain, but his arm stayed healthy.

Verlander was able to start Game 1 of the ALDS as I projected (and Game 1 of the other two playoff series), but the playoffs were the worst stretch of Verlander’s season. He had bad starts in Game 1 against the Mariners and Game 1 against the Phillies and seemed on the verge of blowing Game 5 of the World Series early in that game before settling down.

But Verlander’s teammates carried him and the team to the championship thanks to great performances from, among others, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier (and Yordan Alvarez in Game 1 against the Mariners).

The Astros got an amazing season from Verlander in 2022. But they didn’t get what they had signed him for—excellent pitching in the postseason.

Instead, the other pitchers developed more, leveled up, and were able to bring the title to Houston. We will watch that model again in 2023, this time with Verlander far away from the American League playoffs in Queens.

An article at the Crawfish Boxes today had the headline “Are the Astros Better Off Without Justin Verlander?”

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Are the Astros Better Off Without Justin Verlander

crawfishboxes.comAre the Astros Better Off Without Justin VerlanderWe’ll miss him, but is there a better way to spend money to improve the team?

The short answer to that is obviously no. You’d rather have more good players. But the long answer is that the Astros can absorb the loss of Verlander, despite his excellence. Their rotation is deep enough and strong enough to keep the team at the top of the American League West in 2023.

Thanks for the six great years in Houston, Justin. They were one hell of a ride. Good luck in Queens, unless you make the World Series against the Astros.

1. Players who have played in the majors for 10 years and who have played for the same team for 5 straight years have the right to veto a trade. The rule was implemented as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement reached in 1972.