I examine how long he is likely to be out, whether the Astros should sign Jurickson Profar as a replacement, and whether Dusty will hit the 2B leadoff.
Great work, Brian, especially with the rapidity you pulled all this together! I love the stat-work of thumb/hand injuries....still fun to know even before we know if/what/how bad, etc! I agree with Marty that it makes little difference who "leads off," because everybody in the lineup can lead off an inning at some point in a game!
I sense, though, if Dusty's anything like Hinch, he'll use pitching match-ups to dictate a game-to-game leadoff hitter, as it's pointless to adhere to "everyone has a role" if the goal is to simply weather the Altuve-less storm (and whomever else ends up not ready to go)!
That was my exact same reaction - Dubon leading off. Not optimal, but the leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to lead off one inning each game, the other 8 innings are random. (would be a good study to do if it hasn't been done).
On the flip side, batting Tucker first would get him to the plate more often (not sure how much).
You want your run producers (Tucker, Alvarez, Bregman) to come to the plate with runners on and if one is moved this would seem to reduce those odds a lot not just because the first at-bat won't have anyone on, but they will follow 7-8-9 hitters who are less likely to reach base. Altuve hit 28 HR and had only 57 RBI last season because the bottom of the lineup was bad most of the season.
It would also mean someone who has not performed well enough to earn middle-of-the-lineup status, be shifted to that role. Do you want Kyle Tucker up with men on or Chas McCormick, for example?
The study you cited seems to refute my thoughts, if I understood correctly.
I appreciate the perspective on the time Altuve will likely miss.
Great work, Brian, especially with the rapidity you pulled all this together! I love the stat-work of thumb/hand injuries....still fun to know even before we know if/what/how bad, etc! I agree with Marty that it makes little difference who "leads off," because everybody in the lineup can lead off an inning at some point in a game!
I sense, though, if Dusty's anything like Hinch, he'll use pitching match-ups to dictate a game-to-game leadoff hitter, as it's pointless to adhere to "everyone has a role" if the goal is to simply weather the Altuve-less storm (and whomever else ends up not ready to go)!
That was my exact same reaction - Dubon leading off. Not optimal, but the leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to lead off one inning each game, the other 8 innings are random. (would be a good study to do if it hasn't been done).
On the flip side, batting Tucker first would get him to the plate more often (not sure how much).
You want your run producers (Tucker, Alvarez, Bregman) to come to the plate with runners on and if one is moved this would seem to reduce those odds a lot not just because the first at-bat won't have anyone on, but they will follow 7-8-9 hitters who are less likely to reach base. Altuve hit 28 HR and had only 57 RBI last season because the bottom of the lineup was bad most of the season.
It would also mean someone who has not performed well enough to earn middle-of-the-lineup status, be shifted to that role. Do you want Kyle Tucker up with men on or Chas McCormick, for example?
The study you cited seems to refute my thoughts, if I understood correctly.
I appreciate the perspective on the time Altuve will likely miss.