How Should We Approach Losses in the Middle of a Division Race?

Astros fans can't just "take losses in stride" like in recent seasons, yet the long season and expanded playoffs still call for perspective and balance.

During the 2022 season, I wrote several times about the attitude of Astros fans to the team’s losses. 

In June, after a 4 game losing streak, I suggested that "Astro fans should take the losses in stride, even if there are too many of them." That post was titled "Shake It Off."

In August, I asked if those games "mattered," as "the games we have watched the last 3 weeks tell us little about what is going on in the standings."

And on Twitter, I started posting the Astros position I'm the standings and games left in the season to remind Astros fans that the team’s position was strong.

Why did I write so often cautioning patience and perspective in 2022? It was in response to many I saw on social media who tended to freak out after every loss, or, worse, work up the next day still angry over the previous loss.

The premise behind my takes in 2022 was that any losing skid affected the Astros long-term prospects not at all. The worry warts in 2022 would claim that they knew the losses wouldn't affect their chances of making the playoffs, but were signs of issues the team would have in the playoffs. Needless to say, these concerns were overstated.

And the circumstances of the 2022 season that prompted this attitude was very similar to the seasons that preceded it. In 2021, the Astros won the AL West by 5 games, and while there was a division race that season, the Astros were always in control of it. On September 8 of that year, I wrote a piece headlined “The AL West Ain’t Over…But We Know Who’s Going to Win It.” In it, I wrote “That the Astros are going to win the AL West is not a new development…The Astros have had the highest odds to win the division pretty much every day of the entire season.”

And that was the season when the AL West was close. In 2019, the Astros won 107 games and the division by 10 games over the A’s. In 2018, 103 regular season wins led to winning the division by 6 game, and in 2017, the Astros were the only AL West squad with a winning record—101-61.

A Different Season with a Different Feel

This year is different. Last week’s 2-5 record pushed the Astros winning percentage down to .561, which is a 91 win pace. The team has suffered multiple significant injuries this year—Lance McCullers, Jose Altuve, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and now Yordan Alvarez. In addition, the quality of the team’s offense this year has taken a clear step back from not only the slugging teams from 2017-2021, but also from last season’s more modest offensive team.

And compounding those issues is the fact that the Astros will not be able to coast to an AL West title thanks to an enfeebled set of division mates—the Rangers have jumped out to a 41-23 record and a 5 game division lead.

It is easy to see the difference between 2023 and the previous five full major league seasons in the table below, created by Tony Adams. The Astros odds of winning the division were over 95% in four of the last five full baseball seasons. The 2021 team is the outlier, but even than had a better than 50% chance of winning the division, and those odds quickly went up as the team went on a big winning streak in mid-June.

You Don’t Have to Shake It Off

As a result, it is harder to advise fans to “take losses in stride” or to look upon the Fangraphs projected AL West standings. The only time this year it was appropriate to say “Shake It Off” this year in Houston was April 21-23 when the Eras tour came through town.

One is justified in 2023 in waking up angry the next morning after an Astros loss. A single loss may be the eventual difference between the Astros and the Rangers in the division standings. Each game matters in a way that it didn’t in 2022, or in any of the four previous full seasons of baseball. The Astros essentially had the division wrapped up in June in each of those seasons. This year could be a fight to the end of the season for the AL West.

Yet, One Needs Perspective

And yet, perspective is still needed to watch a division race that still has 96 games left. Baseball seasons are really long and things can change over the long haul. On this date last season, the Astros were 7 games behind the Yankees for the best record in the AL; the Mariners were below .500 and 6 games out of the Wild Card, and the Phillies were a week out from having fired Joe Girardi in a desperate attempt to turn their season around. The results of mid-June are related to, but not determinative of the final standings.

In short, one reason to have perspective over the next 96 games of baseball is baseball. A lot can happen in 96 games.

Another reason to have perspective on the Astros attempt to chase down the Rangers for the AL West title is that the division crown is not the only worthwhile prize for the Astros. Six American League teams will make the playoffs and each will have a strong chance of winning the World Series. Billy Beane described the playoffs as a “crapshoot” in Moneyball, and every season we see further evidence to support that contention. The best teams have only a slightly better chance of winning any series than a lesser team.

Now, winning the AL West is a worthwhile prize. The winner of the division is likely to receive a bye to the Division Series and thus can avoid the three game Wild Card series. Teams that can avoid the Wild Card round are subject to fewer throws of the dice in the crapshoot that is the playoffs. And with the AL Central being currently led by a team at .500, it is highly likely that the AL West winner will get a bye into the Division Series.

A Call for Balance

In short, balance is needed. Losses will happen, and like the three one-run losses the Astros suffered in the past week, they will hurt. And they will hurt more than they did in previous seasons because there is a real race going on for the AL West.

And yet, freaking out over every loss seems to doom one to an unnecessary emotional torture. The 2022 team won 68% of its games in the last 96 games of the season. That is very impressive. And yet, that means they lost 31 times in those games, nearly one in three.

If the Astros lose only one in three games over the last 60% of the season, then they should be in pretty good shape to pass Texas for the division crown. Yet if one holds his or her anger over all 31 losses, it doesn’t seem healthy.

The Astros are guaranteed to lose more games than any of us like for the rest of the season. One does not need to just shake it off every time they lose, but one should keep the losses in perspective.

I certainly will.