Can Chas McCormick Remain an Above Average Major League Hitter? I Say Yes
Projections expect a decline in Chas McCormick's power this year. But between his consistency, his ability to barrel the ball, and improved strike zone judgment, I think he keeps his power stroke.
Off the bat, I thought it was a routine fly ball to center. But then Joe Davis’s voice carried the excitement that it was more than that, and Chas McCormick started racing back and to his left. I was worried.
Then, just before he got to the fence, McCormick slowed up to assess where the ball and the fence were.
“He’s got it,” I quickly thought.
And with a leap against the chain link fence protecting the out-of-town scoreboard, Chas McCormick secured JT Realmuto’s fly ball, then feel down on his back against the Citizens Bank Park warning track.
Ryan Pressly put his hands over his head in disbelief. Realmuto did the same on the basepaths.
And with that catch—quickly nicknamed the Bank Robbery—Chas McCormick secured his place as a World Series hero and an Astro legend.
And with his playoff heroics (a slash line of .231/.326/.384 with a pair of go ahead home runs against the Yankees in the ALCS in addition to The Catch), McCormick had seemed to finally solve the Astros search for a center fielder.
Since his call-up to the majors for Opening Day 2021, Chas McCormick has been surprising and consistent member of the Astros outfield. While his role and defensive position have varied, his production has not. He had a 107 OPS+ in 2021 and a 110 OPS+ in 2022. And he has provided excellent outfield defense at all three spots in the outfield.
Yet the projection systems listed at Fangraphs all predict a decline from McCormick for 2023. Some expect him to produce at a below average clip.
An Unexpected Success
To say that Chas McCormick has been a surprise as a major league player would be an understatement. The Astros chose McCormick in the 21st Round of the MLB Draft in 2017. How unlikely is it that a 21st round pick makes the majors? So unlikely that they no longer have a 21st round of the draft. Major league executives think it’s not worth it; Chas McCormick disagrees.
McCormick did not have a meteoric rise through the Astros minor league system, but he made steady progress. In the 2018 season, he earned a promotion to AA Corpus Christi and in mid-2019, he was promoted again to AAA, where he had an .813 OPS in 225 plate appearance.
The pandemic meant that McCormick did not play in the minor leagues in 2020, but his work at the alternate site earned him a spot on the playoff roster as a potential pinch runner and defensive replacement. He did not get in a game.
Over the 2020-21 offseason, Astro fans clamored for the team to find a free agent centerfielder to replace free agent departure George Springer, but the front office did not sign a player like Jackie Bradley, Jr. Instead, the Astros handed the center field job to Myles Straw and the backup outfielder job to McCormick. It was the right decision.
Two Consistent Years
McCormick made the opening day roster for the 2021 season, hit a home run in the final game of the team’s season opening sweep at the Coliseum, and has taken off from there.
In 2021, McCormick slashed .257/.319/447 for a wRC+ of 108 (that is, 8% better than the average big league hitter). He earned 2.2 fWAR in 320 plate appearances. In 2022, he proved that those numbers were not a fluke. In 407 plate appearances, he slashed .245/.332/.407 for a wRC+ of 114.1 He had an fWAR of 2.0.
His defensive numbers are excellent and consistent too. In 2021, Baseball Savant credited him with 10 outs above average; in 2022, he had 7 outs above average.
Despite being in and out of the lineup and moved across all three outfield positions, McCormick has been a very consistent player for the last two seasons. He is a remarkable success story for the Astros player development system.
A Power Decline?
Yet despite McCormick’s consistent offensive performance in 2021 and 2022, McCormick is projected for lower numbers this season. For example, Steamer projects McCormick for a slash line of .227/.313/.373 and a wRC+ of 98. ATC is the most optimistic of the projections listed on Fangraphs—they project McCormick to his .236/.316/.398 for a 105 wRC+.
What is the reason for projection systems to project such a decline in McCormick’ numbers? One explanation would be that McCormick, despite being only a 3rd year player, is older. He will turn 28 next month, and most players peak in their age 26 or 27 seasons. McCormick hit fine but not great in the minors,2 and those seasons still matter to these systems.
But the biggest area where the projections assume that McCormick will perform worse in 2023 than he did in the previous two seasons is in power. McCormick slugged above .400 in both 2021 and 2022. Each of the projection believe he will be below that number in 2023.
One can look at the Statcast data for McCormick and see reasons why an automated system would ding McCormick’s power. His hard hit percentage declined from 49.2% in 2021 to 39.0% last season. And his share of pulled balls went from 38.5% to 29.5%.
For most hitters, these would be worrying signs. But McCormick’s share of barrels—balls hit at the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle—remained steady at 10.2% in both 2021 and 2022. And while many hitters pulled fly balls are a good thing because they are the easiest way to homer (c.f. Bregman, Alex), McCormick has shown great ability to his opposite field home runs.
Just ask Gerrit Cole.
The most worrisome area with regard to McCormick’s power is his increased groundball rate. To hit for power, one must hit the ball in the air. McCormick hit ground balls 43% of the time in 2022 while hitting fly balls only 35% of the time. That’s a reversal from 2021 when he had a ground ball rate of only 36% and a fly ball rate of 42%. McCormick would be well served to lift the ball more in 2023.
Improved Swing Decisions
But one change that McCormick made in 2022 that was for the better was in his strike zone judgment. In 2021, McCormick struck out in 32.5% of his at bats. In 2022, he reduced that to 26.0%. More importantly, McCormick increases his walk rate from 7.8% in 2022 to 11.3% last season.
McCormick improved these numbers primarily by making more contact when he swung. McCormick improved his contact rate from 66% to 71%. He improved his contact rate on balls in the strike zone from 74% in 2021 to 80% in 2022 and his contact rate on pitches outside of the strike zone increased from 50% in 2021 to 58% in 2022. As a result, McCormick’s swinging strike rate declined from 16% in 2021 to 14% in 2022.
McCormick actually increased (slightly) his willingness to swing in 2022—he swung at 46% of pitches in 2021 and 48% in 2022; he swung at the first pitch 28% of the time in 2021 and 32% in 2022. But his ability to make more contact not only allowed him to strike out less, it allowed him to foul off more pitches so he see more pitches, and more balls in later pitches.
If you look up at McCormick’s projections, they believe he will maintain his gains in strike zone judgement in 2023. He is projected to have a walk rate between 9.3 and 10.3%, and the projections think he will strike out between 25.4 and 27.1% of the time. Walking nearly 10% of the time is a big asset for the Astros if McCormick can meet (or exceed) these projections.
What to Watch For From McCormick in 2023
This review of McCormick’s projections for 2023 indicates that the key for him is his power stroke. McCormick has hit with good power over his two seasons in the majors. There are some numbers in McCormick’s power profile which are pushing the projections to reduce his slugging percentage. But my read is that McCormick is not likely to suffer a power outage in 2023. I expect him to maintain a slugging percentage over .400.
So McCormick brings high quality outfield defense, a high walk rate and modest power, especially to the opposite field. He is unlikely to have a high batting average and he struggles in particular against right handed pitchers.
McCormick has been a contributing player over his two seasons in the majors and there is every reason to believe that he can be one again in 2023.
McCormick is not a star player, but being a winning baseball team is about more than having star players, It is also about not having negative players to cancel those starts out. A contributing player like McCormick is thus really valuable for the Astros.
And he’s also really valuable when going back to the right-centerfield fence in Philadelphia.
The average major leaguer hit worse in 2022 than 2021. McCormick’s decline from a .766 OPS in 2021 to a .738 OPS in 2022 was more gentle than the average major leaguer.
With the important note that he might have set the world in fire in AAA in 2020 had their been a minor league season that year.
One of my favorites, though I recognize the limitations. As you suggested, his true value is in his versatility and was one reason (of many) I advocated trading Siri over Chas last year.