Both Offenses Did Nothing, but the Astros Did More of Nothing: My Game 1 Observations
The Astros had no extra base hits and no runs in Game 1, including 0-for-7 the third time through the order. Alex Bregman just missed pulling one into the Crawford Boxes.
I previewed the 2023 ALCS with the headline “Two Big Offenses.” But in Game 1, both offenses were small. The Rangers got 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks. The Astros only got 5 hits and two walks. Neither offense did much of anything.
But the Astros really didn’t do much of anything. All 5 of their hits were singles. The Astros did actually bunch three of those five singles together in the fourth inning, but none was placed to advance a runner more than one base. That left the bases loaded with two outs for Martin Maldonado, the weakest hitter in either lineup. He couldn’t keep up the hit parade and the Astros were retired.
The Rangers did not hit the ball well, but they did manage two extra base hits, and both of them led to scores. One was directly, as Leody Tavares homered off of Justin Verlander in fifth inning. Homers are of course a very effective way to score runs. The other extra base hit by the Rangers was the hustle double by Evan Carter in the second inning. The extra base he gained proved useful as Carter scored one batter later on a single to right-center by Jonah Heim.
In short, neither team hit well, but the Rangers hit the ball a little better than the Astros in Game 1. The little edge here made a big difference in the end.
The Astros had basically one other opportunity to score. In the bottom of the 8th against reliever Aroldis Chapman, Alex Bregman barreled a ball 365 feet at a 35 degree launch angle. But he did not pull it enough and it went just to right of the Crawford Boxes where Rangers left fielder Evan Carter was able to catch it.1
Bregman does not have huge power but has turned himself into a home run hitter by learning to turn and lift on inside pitches pulling them down the left field line requires the least distance to become a homer. The chart below shows Bregman’s home runs this season and you can see how he uses this formula, and that he rarely hits the ball for a huge distance.
From that perspective, Bregman just missed the ball he hit off of Chapman. Pull it just a little bit more and it’s in the Crawford Boxes for a game tying home run. Miss it just a bit, as Bregman did, and it’s the first of 5 straight outs to end the game.
There is one other place where the Astros bats lost an opportunity to score runs. As I frequently point out, batters perform better when facing a batter the third time through the order.
The Astros tonight did not. As I noted after the sixth inning, Ranger starter Jordan Montgomery retired the first six Astros he faced the third time through the order. My tweet was slightly premature, as Montgomery faced Mauricio Dubon in the top of the 7th. And got the out; Dubon lined out to center.
As friend of the Substack Mike Mitchell pointed out, this was an opportunity missed by Astro bats. Montgomery should be vulnerable the third time through the order and the alternative for the Rangers is their weak bullpen.
Instead, the Astros got nothing going. Which was as true the third time through the order as it was the first, second, and fourth times through the order last night.
Today’s Game 2 becomes a crucial game. The Astros do not want to fall down 0-2 in the series. That’s not the end of the series, but a loss would flip the odds strongly against the Astros. A win would like return the Astros to being slight favorites in computer models of the series.
They of course need to score runs, which they should be able to do. They did it throughout the last four months of the season.
The biggest question is about starting pitcher Framber Valdez, who was inconsistent throughout the second half of the season. Dusty Baker also should be aggressive in going to his bullpen during the middle innings and the third time through the order. He has not done that this postseason (and frankly, hasn’t needed to much), but with the bullpen lightly used yesterday, he can be aggressive going to it in the middle innings today.
To my eyes, it was not that difficult a catch but Carter made it look more difficult than it actually was by leaping for the ball. YMMV.
Good, solid post. Please don’t diminish the difficulty of Evan Carter’s catch on the Bregman ball, it was a very athletic play. What was the statcast catch probability on it? Thanks again for your coverage on the game🙂👍⚾️