Bad Framber. Good Pablo. The Simple and Unhappy Story of Game 2
Framber Valdez allowed the Twins to lift and drive the ball, a pattern we have seen in the second half of the season. Pablo Lopez had no such issues for the Twins.
Sometimes analysis of baseball is complicated. Sometimes it requires looking at a broad array of detailed stats and data. Sometimes it requires a different way of looking at things. And sometimes it requires weaving these different perspectives together.
But analysis of last night’s Game 2 of the American League Division Series is pretty simple. Framber Valdez pitched poorly and Pablo Lopez pitched well.
Framber Allowed the Twins to Lift the Ball
We start with Valdez, even though the start was Valdez’s downfall. In the first inning, the Twins scored when Carlos Correa drove a Valdez curveball deep off the left center field wall, scoring Jorge Polanco, who had worked a walk. Three batters later in the top of the second, Kyle Farmer drove a sinker up in the strike zone into the Crawford Boxes for a two-run homer.
Seven batters into the ballgame the Twins had all the runs they would need in the game.
Valdez is effective when he gets ground balls—he had the second highest ground ball rate among all qualified major leaguers—but both Correa and Farmer were able to lift the ball. Lifting the ball is good because when you drive a ball in their air, good things happen for batters. And bad things for Framber and Astros fans.
Framber then locked into the best parts of his game. Five of the next ten batters hit grounders. Three others struck out.
But in the fifth, Valdez wobbled. Michael A. Taylor singled on a liner up the middle and Donovan Solano grounded one through the hole on the right side. After a Jorge Polanco sacrifice bunt, the Twins #3 hitter Royce Lewis walked and cleanup man Carlos Correa drove in a pair with a base hit to left center.
Dusty Baker chose not to trust his starting pitcher the third time through the order.1 But the third time through the order penalty bit Baker here.
Lopez Allowed Little Hard Contact
By contrast, Lopez had no issues the third time through the Astros order. Or the second or the first. He struck out seven, allowed only one walk and six hits. Of those six hits, the Astros had more infield hits—two—than extra-base hits—one. And he saved his best for when the Astros got a runner to second: he held the Astros to 1 for 6 with a runner in scoring position. And that one was a single that did not plate a run.
It is part of Lopez’s very effective 2023 season. He was traded in the offseason from the Marlins to the Twins, making his first All Star team. He increased his strikeout rate this season to a career high of 29.2% while keeping his walk rate down to 6.0%, the second lowest of his career.
Lopez was similarly effective against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round, giving up only 1 run in 5.1 innings. He was even better on Sunday night at Minute Maid Park.
The Astros need to figure him out, because with two off days upcoming, he can pitch in Game 5 (if necessary) on full rest.
Framber 2nd Half Was Homer-ific
Framber’s shaky start on Sunday night fits with what we saw from him in the second half of the season. He allowed a 4.66 ERA in the second half of the season, in large part because opponents were able to drive the ball more. He allowed 12 homers and an opponent slugging percentage of .413 after allowing just 7 homers and a .328 slugging percentage before the All Star break.
The chart below shows Valdez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, and homers per nine this season. His walk rate remained steady and his strikeout rate declined, but gradually in the second half. The big shift is that his home run rate increases sharply over the last half of the season.
The glass half full take for the Astros is that they now sit even in the series after their Game 1 win and that home field advantages are not that much in baseball.2 They still have the best set of hitters in this series and just need a hot streak or two to win a pair of the next two games.
The bad news is that they face a Game 3 in which the Twins have a pitching advantage. The Twins will start Sonny Gray, whose had the third best ERA (2.79) and fourth best bWAR (5.3) of any starter in the majors in 2023. The Astros will start Cristian Javier, who was not among the league leaders in pitching.
The Astros advantage is with their bats, so the most likely path to victory is for the Astros to slug their way to a win in Minnesota on Tuesday night.
They couldn’t do that on Sunday because of Lopez’s excellent start. And were behind the eight ball because of Valdez’s poor one.
Like most every pitcher, Valdez is worse the third time through the order. In 2023, he allowed an OPS of .570 the first time through the order; a .633 OPS the second time he faces a batter; and a .760 OPS the third time through.
FWIW, home teams are 1-5 in this round of the playoffs.
Sometimes it is that simple. Looks like the Astros may need to slug their way forward this postseason. Who else other than Altuve and Alvarez will contribute to the cause?