A Tight Payroll May Limit the Astros Choices, Despite Big Needs. My Off Season Preview

A weak AL West leaves the Astros as 2025 favorites. It makes a tempting target for the Astros to mostly hold steady this offseason and make marginal moves to help the roster.

When the Astros acquired Justin Verlander for two of their top minor league prospects at the 2023 trade deadline, I wrote that Jim Crane and the front office “staked out a clear path. It’s all in on 2023 and 2024 and will figure out 2025 at a later date.”

The Astros continued to make moves to be “all-in” on winning in the 2024 season, most particularly signing Josh Hader as a free agent and trading 3 major league ready prospects for Yusei Kikuchi.

We now know the result of 2023 and 2024, and the Astros maintained their status as AL West champions in each season, but did not achieve their goal of winning a 3rd World Series title.

The Astros now have to move on to the “figure out 2025” part that I mentioned back in July of 2023. Part of why I noted that the Astros were in through 2024 is that was when contracts expired for Jose Altuve, Justin Verlander, Ryan Pressly, and Alex Bregman.

The good news for the Astros is that they have already figured out some of that. Altuve has signed a 5-year extension that begins in 2025 and Pressly met the targets needed for his contract to vest for the 2025 season. Verlander pitched poorly in 2024, hampered by injury and age. He will no longer command big dollars as a free agent and will likely pitch elsewhere in 2025.

The one part of figuring out 2025 still left from that to-do list is Alex Bregman, who will become a free agent shortly after the World Series ends. Obviously, there are other parts of the to-do list for this offseason, and I address them below.

The Big Picture: Staying the Course in 2025

There is definitely a sentiment among Astros fans that the team should consider making a big move to re-set the team for the medium term, even if it is at the cost of the short term.

To that end, the first two fan questions Chandler Rome addresses in an offseason mailbag at The Athletic addressed the likelihood that the front office would trade Kyle Tucker and/or Framber Valdez—both of whom reach free agency after the 2025 season—for younger players or prospects.

I encourage you to read Rome’s responses, but my read of the tea leaves is that this is unlikely. I think the Astros will prioritize the 2025 season with the goal of winning the AL West again and taking their chances in the playoffs. The division is weak, and I believe the Astros will enter 2025 as the AL West favorites. That fact, and Jim Crane’s consistent willingness to keep his players through their free agency in an effort to win that season pushes me to believe we will see the same thing again this offseason.

I am not as certain of that as I was in previous seasons. The team could justify a pivot because they are not as certain to get to the playoffs as in previous seasons in the golden age, nor are there clear major league regulars in the farm system. The team also has significant payroll issues, driven in large part by the disastrous contracts Crane gave out to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero after the 2022 seasons—they are still on the books right now.

But my big picture prediction is that the Astros will try to sign players with an eye to defeating the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West in 2025. In short, this offseason will look a lot like the offseasons the Astros have conducted since becoming a contender in 2015.

A Payroll Close to The Luxury Tax

The Astros will run a high payroll in 2025. The Astros are currently committed to $114.7 million in payments to 7 players with guaranteed contracts.¹ They will 10 players projected to go through the arbitration process. While the exact number will be determined through that process, MLB Trade Rumors uses a model to estimate what each player will earn in arbitration. They estimate the Astros will pay $58.2 million to their arbitration eligible players. Add that to the additional $11.6 million in salary and $19.2 million in compulsory payments (benefits and pre-arbitration bonus pool) and the Astros are at $203.7 million in payroll for players in 2025, well below next season’s luxury tax threshold of $241 million.

But, and this is a big but, that’s not all the money the Astros owe to players. The Astros owe a combined $31 million in 2025 salary to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero, who the Astros designated for assignment this season. That money is included on the 2025 luxury tax payroll. But that all together, and the Astros have a 2025 luxury tax payroll of $234.7 million, which is only $6.3 million under the first luxury tax threshold.

What will $6 million dollars get you in free agency? The answer is Victor Caratini, who the Astros signed last offseason for $6 million a year for 2 seasons. But that means you can sign a backup catcher (a top of the market one, but still, a backup catcher).

That also means you can’t sign a third baseman and stay under the luxury tax. For example, last offseason, the Reds signed third baseman Jeimer Candelario—a player who feels like the definition of an average third baseman—to a 3 year, $15 million a year contract.

One of the big questions for this offseason is whether Jim Crane will be willing to pay the luxury tax. Crane did last season, and appears to have authorized breaching the second luxury tax threshold. But Crane had never paid the luxury tax before. And the surcharge for going over the luxury tax threshold for a second season increases—which is to say, it takes more money out of the Jim Crane’s profit.

Last season, I was confident that Crane would pay the luxury tax in the 2024. The team was so close and Crane had indicated he was all-in on payroll for 2024 based on the team taking on 2024 salary at the 2023 trade deadline.

This season, I am less confident that Crane will do that. Thus, this remains a key question for the 2025 offseason.

Jim Crane’s willingness to pay the luxury tax again will greatly affect Dana Brown’s ability to address the Astros weaknesses this offseason.

Potential Salaries Dumps

If Jim Crane chooses not to pay the luxury tax again in 2025, the front office may seek to dump some players to free up payroll to address other needs, such as finding a starting third baseman.

Whose salary could the Astros dump on another club?

Chas McCormick—MLB Trade Rumors estimates that McCormick will make $3.3 million next season. If he performs like he did in 2024, he’s not worth that salary, and the Astros could “non-tender” McCormick. This is probably the least likely to these three to happen, as $3.3 million will not get the Astros much payroll savings.

Jose Urquidy—Urquidy had Tommy John Surgery in early June. Recovery from this procedure usually lasts 12-18 months, which means he will definitely miss part of the 2025 season and may miss all of it. It seems likely to me that the Astros will not tender him a contract.

Victor Caratini—Caratini had a big year for the Astros in 2024, proving to be a reliable hitter and taking up the slack at first base after the release of Jose Abreu. But Crane may prefer to reduce his tax bill rather than pay top-of-the-market rates to a backup catcher. Cesar Salazar has shown he can handle the backup catcher job, and while he would not be as good as Cartini, he would make a minimum salary.

Ryan Pressly—If Jim Crane limits the budget to the salary cap, then Pressly seems the most likely person to be traded to free up payroll space. Pressly will make $14 million in 2025.² There are a limited number of teams that would be interested in paying such a high salary to a reliever, so there may not be much of a market. And I don’t expect there to be a big return for Pressly. The goal is to shed the contract to use the money elsewhere.

Will They Add a Starting Pitcher?

I think the answer to this is probably no, but that choice is important and revealing, and in many ways more important than the other choices the front office will make. I put it above things like finding a first baseman because of that.

The Astros will return 4 of the 6 pitchers who finished the 2024 season in their rotation—Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti.

The biggest question about the rotation is what is the status of two pitchers who did not pitch in 2024 as they rehabbed from surgery—Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia. Will these two be ready and able to take a rotation spot on Opening Day? Both were trying to get back for the 2024 season, so with a full offseason to continue rehabilitation and recovery, they should be ready for 2025.

But do we trust McCullers to be ready? He has now missed two straight seasons, and has thrown more than 25 starts only once in his career. He is an effective pitcher when he is healthy enough to be on the mound. But those situations have been quite rare.

There is no history of continued injuries or slow recoveries from Garcia, but there is of course the general concern about the recovery of any pitcher who has gone through Tommy John surgery.

Thus, the first evaluation the front office must make this offseason is a medical one. Are McCullers and Garcia recovered enough from their injuries to start the season in the rotation? If so, they probably do not pursue a pitcher, including their own two free agents—Yusei Kikuchi and Justin Verlander.

Pitching depth beyond McCullers and Garcia is probably two top starters at AAA. AJ Blubaugh was mentioned by Dana Brown as someone who could get a call up in the second half of the season if needed (fortunately, he wasn’t) and Ryan Gusto, who was called up to start Game 162 before it was rained out.

Third Base

I do not expect the Astros to re-sign Alex Bregman. In the Jim Crane era, the Astros have only re-signed their own players who have agreed to take contracts for 5 free agent seasons or fewer. For the most part, these signings (e.g. Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, Jose Altuve now 3 times, Lance McCullers) have occurred well before the player reaches free agency, with the only exception to that circumstance being Michael Brantley’s second and third contracts.

Jim Crane could surprise us, but it would definitely be a surprise at this point if Crane chooses to give Bregman a market rate contract.

So if we have a strong guess as to who the third baseman won’t be next season, we do not have much of an idea who it will be.

The Astros have previously filled their free agent losses (Dallas Keuchel; Gerrit Cole; George Springer; Carlos Correa) with internal options (e.g. Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena). They replaced one homegrown core with another.  That could happen for the Astros in 2025, but the internal options are less certain than in previous years. Zack DeZenzo made the majors in 2024 and could be an option. Brice Mathews, the 2023 first round pick, made AAA and could make a position switch from shortstop to third base.

DeZenzo and Matthews are uncertain options; it is unclear they could be major league regulars. Internal evaluation are key. The Astros under James Click had success in identifying their own prospects who were ready for the majors (c.f. Chas McCormick, Jeremy Pena). Dana Brown has not had many chances to do the same, but that skill will matter greatly this offseason.

If the Astros choose to go outside the organization for a third baseman, they may be looking more at the trade market than for a free agent. Outside of Bregman, the best free agent third baseman might be Yoan Moncada, the oft injured White Sox.  He is a risky proposition.

Other options include mostly utility infielder types. Paul DeJong might be the best of them, with Abraham Toro and Gio Urshela other possibilities. None of these are particularly inspiring, but may be able to hold their own for a season, especially if DeZenzo or Matthews need more seasoning at AAA in the Spring.

Friend of the Substack Mike Mitchell suggested a potential Astros trade target in Brett Baty, the one time Mets prospect who has been passed by Mark Vientos as the Mets everyday third baseman.  Baty seems to have regressed as a player, but if the Astros think they can straighten out his flaws, they as a young left handed bat, he could be a find (Pressly for Baty? Who says no?).

Regardless, getting production from third base next season will require the Astros front office to do an excellent job in player evaluation. They will need to find someone who will play better next season than they did this season. 

Or Jim Crane could make an exception to his rules on free agency and sign Bregman.

First Base and Left Field

Is Jon Singleton good enough to be an everyday first baseman? Singleton hit okay last season, slashing .234/.321/.386. That was slightly above average (105 wRC+). The issue for Singleton was his range at first base. He recorded -8 Defensive Runs Saved and -7 Outs Above Average. His poor defensive abilities took away much of the modest value he had on offense (-0.1 fWAR). 

The Astros played Victor Caratini at first base in the playoffs in part because he hit better than Singleton last season, and played Yainer Diaz at first some as well.

They would like to have a better first base situation, but it is unclear that they can achieve that under their current payroll situation. They front office may look for a low-cost first base option, though that may require them to be patient enough to get somebody who is a Spring Training roster casualty from another organization or is DFA’ed early in the season.

Left field was supposed to be Chas McCormick’s in 2024, but he had an awful season, slashing .211/.271/.306, finishing below replacement level (-0.6 bWAR; -0.2 fWAR). The Astros addressed left field late in the season by claiming Ben Gamel off of waivers and signing Jason Heyward after the Dodgers DFA’ed him. Both are free agents.

The Astros may consider adding another low cost left handed hitting corner outfielder, though again they may wait until they get close to or after Opening Day to do so.

Small Moves Likely

Putting all of this together, I think this will be a mostly uneventful offseason for the Astros. They will need to address third base in some way, but the options for that—Paul de Jong, Abraham Toro, Brett Baty—are not very exciting. They may try to address first base or left field, but I doubt they will put large resources into that decisions. And I think they will stick with the pitchers they currently have under contract, only adding a marginal arm.

The biggest move might be a salary dump of an important contributor like Caratini or Pressly to create some room under the luxury tax. This won’t be exciting news unless you expect to inherit money from Jim Crane.

With that being said, there is good news. The AL West seems quite weak, with two teams clearly non-contenders (Angels and Athletics) and a Seattle team that has difficulty scoring enough runs to support their excellent starting rotation. I think the biggest challenge will come from the Rangers, who could get a consolidation season from their young players to overcome the aging of their current core.

Even with the slippage the Astros have seen in recent years, they will still enter 2025 as the favorites in the AL West. They have the strongest and most balanced core in the division—Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, Valdez, & Brown—as they have had for pretty much a decade.

1. Those players are Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Josh Hader, Lance McCullers, Ryan Pressly, Cristian Javier, and Victor Caratini.

2. There was a great bit of confusion on Pressly’s contract for 2025. He had what was described as a vesting option, but there was no choice involved with the “option. “Pressly’s contract for 2025 kicked in because he met two thresholds in the contract—pitching in 110 games over the 2023 and 2024 season, and not finishing the 2024 season on the injured list. We really need a more accurate term than option for contracts such as Pressly’s.