A Single Win, But a Needed One
The vibes-based takes of anxious Astros fans looked prescient early on Sunday afternoon. Thankfully an offensive break out provided a helpful cushion for our boys in the AL West race.
I wrote last week that “the series with the Mariners isn’t all that pivotal a series. The worst case is the Astros leave town with a multi-game lead in the division.” And while that is certainly true, losing the first two games of the series in Seattle meant that the Astros were in peril of being ahead in the division by just 2 games if they lost on Sunday.
My writing last week dismissed the anxieties of Astros fans predicting gloom-and-doom for a team with such a big lead in the division, and yet, those doom-and-gloom predictions looked much more accurate than my odds-based takes when the Astros fell behind 3-0 early in yesterday’s action.
Fortunately, the Astros bats woke up. Cam Smith hit a 2-run double to tie the game in the 5th. Christian Walker and Taylor Trammell his homers the sixth. Trammell capped off a 4-run rally in the 7th with a 2 RBI double. And Victor Caratini added his own 2 RBI double in the eighth. Suddenly, the Astros were in cruise mode despite a shaky start from Hunter Brown.
It’s a win that was absolutely needed from a vibes standpoint. The Astros had lost 7 of its 8 previous games before yesterday. On Saturday night, the team suffered yet another injury, as Isaac Parades hurt his hamstring running the bases after crushing a ball off the wall in right field.
With Paredes placed on the IL on Sunday, the Astros now have over half of their Opening Day starting lineup on the shelf (Yordan Alvarez, Jake Meyers, Jeremy Pena and Brendan Rodgers join Paredes on this list). Of course, half of the Astros Opening Day rotation (Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and Hayden Wesneski) is also on the shelf, with Blanco and Wesneski out for the season after arm surgery.
The vibes-based take on the Astros preferred by the anxious is heavily informed by the team’s injuries. That the team is diminished is clear and speedy returns from the injured players would be quite helpful to this team.
Thus, the odds-based perspective that I prefer does take into account the fact that the team is diminished, but notes that it is temporary, and the effects of relying on replacement level players are modest. They could cost a win or two over time and those wins could really matter at the end of September (see 2023 for an example).
That’s why the win yesterday was a much bigger deal than the average game. Sitting 4 games up gives the Astros much more cushion to endure their big set of injuries. It turned out to be much more pivotal than I thought last week.
Run Prevention Woes
While the Astros hitters have taken the brunt of the injury damage over the month of July, the issue for the Astros this month has been on the run prevention side. The Astros have allowed 4.93 runs per game in the month of July (74 runs in 15 games).
In his article today, Chandler Rome wrote:
Houston’s run prevention machine has broken down in July, putting undue pressure on a lineup that is ill-equipped to carry an entire team. Only 10 pitching staffs have a higher ERA this month than the Astros’ 4.52 mark.
Houston’s starters have a 5.42 ERA in July. Only five rotations awoke Sunday with a higher one this month.
Of course, it is just 15 games. Over the course of the season, the Astros have been 3rd in the majors in fewest runs allowed and in ERA. This has been an excellent run prevention team that has hit a particularly bad stretch over the last two weeks. It’s not ideal, but it is likely temporary.
One piece of evidence that the team’s recent pitching woes are temporary is shown by the pitching staff’s ability to control at bats. In the month of July and despite the high ERA, Astros pitchers maintained their high strike out rate. They have struck out 23.7% of opposing hitters, 7th best in the majors. To be fair, that is down from the 26.4% strikeout rate they have had all season, which is the best in the majors.
But they have also walked fewer batters than usual. In July, Astros pitchers have walked 7.2% of opposing batters, the 9th best rate in baseball and down from their 8.0% season-long walk rate.
But together, the different between the walk and strikeout rates among Astros pitching this month is 16.5%, the fourth best in the majors.
The lack of run prevention this month has hurt, especially since so much of it comes from some bad starting pitching, but the overall numbers indicate the dip has not been that big. My long-term concern level about Astros pitching is relatively low.
With that being said, I sure would like to see a good start tonight from Framber in Arizona and another win. Let’s keep the vibes up.