The Vibes and the Odds
Many Astros fans feel this team is playing over its head. It's not, thanks to its excellent and deep pitching staff. That's why they start the 2nd half as such big favorites to win the AL West.
Watching baseball over the final week before the All Star Break, one could sense that all the players needed the break. Overall, play lacked crispness and energy.
And that is before I got to watching the Astros.
The Astros proved their need for a 4-day break by having their worst home stand of the season, losing 5 of 6 to the Guardians and Rangers and the only win was via an extra inning walk off. In that game, Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader combined to blow a save for the first time all season. The next day, Hunter Brown had a poor start and well, it was clear we were all ready for the break.
At the All-Star break and despite the bad home stand, the Astros sit in an enviable position. They are 5 games up over their competition in the AL West. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 66% chance of winning the division; Fangraph’s model is even sunnier, giving the Astros a 74% chance of winning the division.
And with three wild cards, their chances of making the postseason tournament are even higher, as shown in the graph below.
And yet, the sense I get from Astros fans is that they think this team is playing above its head so far this season. They should not be as strong in the standings as they are.
Chandler Rome at The Athletic expresses this sentiment frequently. On Wednesday, he started his article on the Astros second half writing “Vibes and duct tape held the Houston Astros together across an adventurous first half that tested depth and, at times, defied logic.” He started another recent article with “How are they doing this? The question has hounded the Houston Astros across an 81-game stretch defined by attrition, yet still defying expectations.”
The theme is clear—they shouldn’t be this good.
Run Prevention = Winning
But I respectfully disagree with that analysis. The reason that the Astros are good this season is through their excellent pitching staff. The Astros have allowed only 362 runs in their first 96 games this season. That’s 3rd best in the majors. They’ve struck out 930 batters, which leads the majors. In fact, Astros pitchers lead the majors by 52 strikeouts. The Braves and Phillies are tied for second most in strikeouts, and they are closer to the 9th place team in Ks (a tie between the Mets and Padres) than they are to the league-leading Astros.
Astros pitching is led by 4 big stars—the aces Hunter Brown (2.43 ERA) and Framber Valdez (2.75 ERA)—and the back-end of the bullpen—Josh Hader (2.53 ERA) and Bryan Abreu (1.70 ERA). But the excellent pitching extends beyond those stars. The Astros have 9 pitchers with an ERA under 3.00. In addition to those 4, Shawn Dubin, Jason Alexander, Bennett Sousa, Steven Okert, and Bryan King are all keeping opponents off the scoreboard.
The failure in the week before the All Star break was predominantly a failure of run prevention. They allowed 6.3 runs per game over the home stand. Keep them off the board and this team will win.
That excellent run prevention is why the Astros have taken the lead in the AL West and why they are huge favorites to win the division. And yet, the vibe from so many Astros fans seems to be one of waiting for the other shoe to drop.
A Non-That-Pivotal Pivotal Series
The Astros matchup coming out of the All Star break is certain to activate the anxieties of those who don’t believe the Astros are actually this good. They travel to Seattle to play the Mariners.
The Mariners are of course the team 5 back of the Astros. They are the biggest threat to the Astros…if they can get out of their own…for the first time since 2001.
The Mariners issue this season has been their pitching. They have some excellent ones—Bryan Woo was a deserving All-Star and their bullpen back-end combination of Matt Brash and Andres Munoz can match with Abreu and Hader.
But they lack the depth of the Astros pitching staff. Their starting rotation has some quality to it, but between injuries to Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller and the aging of Luis Castillo, they have slipped in the rotation. The give up more runs than the Astros, despite their more pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Their middle relief options cannot match the Astros in performance this season. Again, not as much depth.
That’s why the Astros have been a better team this season than the Mariners. Will they be better over the next three days in Seattle? That’s harder to say, as short series baseball cannot tell you who is the actual better team. Those who think the Astros are not as good as their record think this is a key moment where the Astros will give up ground.
As someone who knows that the Astros are as good as their record, I also know the series with the Mariners isn’t all that pivotal a series. The worst case is the Astros leave town with a multi-game lead in the division. The most likely case is that the Astros win two of three and thus have a 6-game division lead with but 63 games left to play.
Even More Injuries
Of course, there is the expression “just because you are paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t after you” applies to the 2025 Astros. And that is because of injuries. They keep happening, and have reached a crescendo as Jeremy Pena and Jake Meyers have recently gone on the IL due to a cracked rib and strained calf respectively.
Including Yordan Alvarez, who has been out most of the season with a mysterious hand injury, that’s three opening day starters who will not open the second half in the lineup. And Pena and Meyers have been among the team’s best offensive players in the 2025 season.
It’s a clear the team is diminished right now because of these specific injuries, which hurt more than those to utility players and platoon options just as Jacob Melton and Zack Dezenzo. The injuries compel worse players such as Taylor Trammell and Zack Short into frequent playing time.
Yet, the team’s cushion in the division still exists and the team has time to get Pena and Meyers (and hopefully Alvarez) healthy for the stretch run of the season. It’s not ideal, but it is not a disaster, thanks again to the team’s excellent run prevention.
The vibe of the 2025 Astros is that they shouldn’t be as good as they are. The reality and the odds say they are going to win the division. As always, I prefer the numbers to the emotions.
The odds have it for the Astros.
