A Collective Failure
We have a tendency to focus on blame on one player or on one element of a team. In Games 6 and 7 of the ALCS, every part of the Astros failed. The losses are a collective failure.
The Astros returned to Minute Maid Park on Sunday having taken a 3-2 lead over the Rangers after Jose Altuve’s 3-run home run on Friday evening in Arlington.
Over the next 18 innings, they were outscored 20-6. One can focus their blame on the starting pitching, as the Astro starters gave up 6 runs in 5.1 innings. One can blame the offense, because scoring 6 runs, with no extra base hits in Game 6, is obviously inadequate. One can blame the bullpen, which gave up 14 runs over the two games. One can blame Dusty Baker, who made several questionable moves in both games.
But no individual part of the team and no individual deserves the lion’s share of the blame. They all failed.
Starting Pitching—Framber Valdez didn’t have a great start on Sunday, giving up homers to Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim. He ended up giving up three runs in his five innings. And that was the better start.
Cristian Javier also gave up three runs in his start in Game 7. In one-third of an inning. Neither starter gave the Astros what they needed, and both left the game behind on the scoreboard.
The starting pitching failed.
The Offense—The Astros recorded no extra base hits in Game 6. The good news is that they did hit multiple extra base hits in Game 7. Collectively, it produced 6 runs.
In the first six games of the series, the Astros had a slugging percentage of only .317. How low is that? Their on base percentage of .323 was higher.
The offense failed.
The Bullpen—The bullpen has been one of the strengths of the Astros all season. But it wasn’t in Games 6 and 7.
In Game 6, Astros relievers gave up six runs in their four innings on the hill. In Game 7, they gave up 8 runs over 8.2 innings. Much was given up some of the lesser used pitchers in the bullpen, but even the Astros best reliever—Bryan Abreu—was not immune. He gave up three runs over his two innings across both games.
The bullpen failed.
Dusty Baker—The performance of his team left the Astros behind early and often left Baker with few good options. But even with that, he still made some questionable decisions. He chose Jonathan Singleton over Chas McCormick as a pinch hitter in the 8th inning in Game 6 and down 2 runs. Singleton struck out. He then went to Rafael Montero and Ryne Stanek in the ninth inning. They gave up five runs between the two of them.
In Game 7, Baker went to JP France in the 4th inning, down 4-1. He gave up 4 runs. Baker ended up relieving France with Hector Neris, prioritizing stopping the Rangers run, but only after it had started. He then let Martin Maldonado hit with two runners on and one out in the fourth, prioritizing defense when he was down 6 runs. Maldonado predictably flew out.
Dusty Baker failed.
There is an instinct to focus on one particular aspect or failure. For example, I got a text last night from a friend in the second inning that said "If we lose this series, it’ll be because of starting pitching.”
And of course, he’s not wrong. The starting pitching failed. And at that moment, in the wake of the disastrous start last night by Cristian Javier, it is understandable why he was focused on starting pitching. But Javier did not lose the Astros the series, or even Game 7.
Others I saw on social media focused on the struggles of Kyle Tucker or Rafael Montero as the key to explaining the series loss. As manager, Dusty Baker was of course a target of some fan’s ire.
They all deserve some share of the blame. But so does just about everyone involved with the Astros. Being outscored by 14 runs over the final two games means there is no key play or sequence or decision that determined the results of the American League Champions Series.
When you lose by that much, when you score so few runs and allow so many, everybody is to blame. It was a collective failure.
Our Painful Loss Because the Goal Was So Close
The loss of the American League Championship Series is of course quite painful. And that the Astros lost to their in-state and division rivals makes it even more painful than if they had lost to any of the other four teams in this year’s AL playoff bracket.
It is also painful because the Astros put a good deal of resources into winning in 2023. When the Astros traded for Justin Verlander at the trade deadline, dealing away their two top prospects in Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford, I wrote that “The trade shows that owner Jim Crane is all in on winning another World Series this season or next season.” That is one of those two seasons without a World Series title.
The team is likely closer to the end of its Golden Era than it is to its beginning.
But the pain is also a reminder of why this is the Golden Era. Losing in the playoffs, losing when you expect to win, is sharper than losing in the regular season. That is a different type of pain, and sports fans often debate which is worse. I won’t judge that fight. What I will say is that losing in the playoffs if sharper because you are closer to your ultimate goal. You can imagine that you are going to achieve it, and in two games, it was taken away.
But that pain can also be a reminder of the good times. In looking at the 2023 season, it is a reminder that the Astros remain in a privileged position. We dreamed of hoisting another World Series trophy because we cheer for a really good baseball team, and that team not only won its division this year, but also advanced to the sport’s version of the final four. There are 26 other fanbases jealous of us right now.1
And it is a reminder that a season like 2022 is special. It was a team that won 106 games in the regular season. As I pointed out after last regular season, a total that exceeded 99% of the baseball teams that had played since the sport integrated in 1947. And it was the Astros “team that most beat expectations entering the season.”
I also wrote that the regular season “will quickly fall by the wayside as “narratives around baseball have focused much more on what happens in the playoffs.” And what a narrative that produced. The Astros went a ridiculous 11-2 in the playoffs, Yordan Alvarez produced not one, but two, game winning three run homers to start and end the run, and the team won a World Series.
That felt like a dream, but was reality. It’s rare to do that and should be appreciated because of its rarity.
Reality is that 30 baseball teams start a season and only one can win in the end. Our team is good enough that we can dream that it will be the last one standing. It is thus quite painful when they are not. And it is quite painful when the failure is so large scale, as it was in Games 6 and 7 this year.
I’ll see some Yankee and Met fans today as I live in NYC metro. And I’ll take some comfort in the fact they are jealous of my team’s playoff run.