Why is Jose Abreu Returning to the Active Roster? Two Words: Jim Crane

The Astros "have to" bring back Jose Abreu, partly because it's what they promised Abreu, but mostly because you can't really ask the boss to pay a lot of money to get rid of his mistake.

The Astros will activate Jose Abreu later today. It is not something that Astro fans are looking forward to.

Abreu had 7 hits and only 1 extra base hit in 71 at bats in April of this season. Abreu agreed to something remarkable for a big league veteran—to be optioned to extended Spring Training to work on his swing. In 5 games in the Florida Complex League, Abreu had 7 hits (including 3 extra base hits) in 22 at bats. But this weekend he’s been promoted to AAA Sugar Land, where he is 0 for 7 with a walk.

There is happy talk from Dana Brown, Joe Espada, and Abreu about his swing being fixed and Abreu relaxing and being himself. But we’ve yet to see evidence for improvement on the field.

Which leads to an important question. Why are the Astros going to activate Abreu?

The answer is they have to.

Promise to Abreu

They have to in part because it is what they promised Abreu to get him off the roster in the first place. Veteran players can refuse an assignment to the minors. Abreu presumably only agreed to go to extended Spring Training with the understanding that his stay there would not be permanent. The Astros brass and Abreu presumably worked out a plan not only on what to work on, but also on how long he would be out.

Thus, the Astros need to return Abreu to the active roster to be goo on their word.

Weak at First Base

They have to activate Abreu because they need to get something out of their big investment in Abreu. Abreu was signed to be the team’s everyday first baseman for three seasons and the best version of the team requires some production from first base.

We saw at the end of last season that a productive Abreu adds power to the rest of the lineup.

And the alternative to Abreu is Jon Singleton. Since taking over the first base job on April 29, Singleton has slashed .227/.344/.427. That’s a 124 wRC+, and his combination of patience at the plate (15.6% walk rate) and pop (5 homers) make up for a low average (only 12 singles to go with the homers). Singleton’s biggest weakness is his defense. His Out Above Average is -4 (7th percentile) and his DRS is -4 (3rd worst among MLB first basemen this year).

Singleton has been worth 0.1 fWAR since Abreu’s demotion. The Astros could use a boost at first base and in many ways are hoping beyond hope that Abreu can provide it.

Can’t Blame The Guy Who Signed Abreu

The alternative to returning Abreu to the roster is to release him. Releasing Abreu right now would require the Astros to pay him the remaining $33 million on his contract to not play for them.

As fans, it is easy for us to say that the team should just eat the money. It’s not our money to eat. But convincing the owner—the many who actually would play a player not to play for his team—to eat such a large salary is difficult.

General managers can do this sometimes by falling on their sword: “Boss, I made a mistake in signing this guy. I take responsibility for that, but get us out of this mistake.” That does not always work, and don’t ask for it twice. But’s it’s an effective strategy.

A better strategy is to blame the last guy. “Boss, the old guy screwed up. Let’s just turn the page and get some new guys here.” The owner can at least say it’s a new day and justify to himself paying a player who is not there.

Astros general manager Dana Brown can’t quite say that to owner Jim Crane. I mean, it’s clearly not Brown’s fault for the Abreu signing; that signing happened before Crane hired Brown as his general manager.

But Brown cannot blame his predecessor who signed Abreu because that predecessor is Jim Crane, who served as head of Astros baseball operations after the 2022 season. This was in the period between when Crane decided not to renew James Click’s contract but before he hired Brown.

To release Abreu is not to get Jim Crane to cover up Brown’s own mistake, or a mistake from a previous GM. To get Jim Crane to swallow Jose Abreu’s salary is to get Crane to cover up his own mistake.

Getting your boss to admit his mistake is a difficult task for any employee. It’s an even more difficult task when it involves the most spending tens of millions of dollars on nothing.

That Jim Crane was the head of baseball operations who signed Jose Abreu makes it more difficult for the current head of baseball operations to ask Jim Crane to swallow Abreu’s contract.

Lesson: Develop Your Own Players

Thus, the Astros have to activate Jose Abreu. They have to because it’s part of the plan they developed with Abreu, because the team needs production at first base. But most importantly, it’s because their owner is the one who made the mistake of signing him in the first place.

One lesson here is not to have your owner serve as the head of baseball operations. It’s possible that an actual general manager would have made the same mistake—Cleveland and Boston were also hot after Abreu in free agency. But a real GM might have been open to other first base options rather than winning a bidding war.

In some ways, the Astros have fixed this problem by hiring Brown. In others, it’s worrisome because since 2022, Crane has occupied a more important role in baseball decision making that in his first decade as owner.

Another lesson is to try to avoid having to sign free agents by developing your own players. The Astros failure to develop a first base prospect compelled them to seek one in free agency. It’s better to develop your own players—they cost less and are easier to move back and forth.

But regardless of the overall lesson, the reality is clear. The Astros could really use a Jose Abreu who has returned to form. While the evidence that he has is scant, we’re going to have to hope that it works. It has to.