Why I'm Not Paying Attention to the AL West Race Right Now
Instead, I'm focusing on what win total the team can achieve. The Astros need to play better to get into playoff contention and that has my focus.
On Twitter and Blue Sky, and in my conversations and text messages, I see a lot of focus on the Seattle Mariners and how they are doing. I see frequent updates on how far back the Astros are in the AL West standings.
The reason for this is obvious; the Mariners, thanks to the excellent starting rotation, lead the American League West. The Astros have been kings of the AL West since 2017, winning the division in each full seasons played since then. The easiest path to the playoffs is to win the division and how many games the Astros are out in the AL West is a measure of how much ground the team needs to make up to get to the playoffs.
But while I’m seeing these messages in a wide variety of platforms, I’m trying not to pay any attention to them right now. It’s my opinion that they don’t tell us much about the status of the Houston Astros in 2024. Instead, I am focusing my attention on how many games the Astros are likely to win. Let me explain why.
Why The Astros Standing in the Division Matters Little Right Now
The Astros currently stand 8 games back of the Mariners in the AL West. It’s a big deficit. So the first reason I am choosing not to focus on the division right now is that it will take a long time for the Astros to make up that deficit. To do so will require them to play much better, and that is something I can focus on. Changing the odds in the division will happen naturally based on better play, if the Astros can achieve it.
Second, the Astros can’t control what the Mariners do. Outside of the six games the Astros play against the Mariners over the rest of the season, what the Mariners do is completely separate from what the the Astros do.
But most importantly, there is no reason to expect the division lead to remain constant with this much of the season left. The Mariners have a .571 winning percentage over their first 77 games of the season. If they keep that up over the course of the rest of the season, their division lead will increase if the Astros don’t keep up with that pace, which they of course have not done so far this season. In short, the Astros have to play better than .571 to make up ground on the Mariners. Again, that suggests my focus should be on how the Astros play.
Why I’m Focused on the Pace of Wins
As noted, I’m focused primarily on how the Astros are playing. I do that because that’s the big deal for a team that is currently 5 games below .500. The Astros need to play better to be in playoff contention.
In particular, I am focusing on how many games the Astros are likely to win this season. Periodically (often after the end of the Sunday game each week), I’ve been sending out posts like below1 which show what the final record for the 2024 Astros will be based on several different paces. These are the 90-win pace of the 2023 team, the 95-win pace of the 2021 team, and the 106-win pace of the 2022 team. I have also recently added the current pace of the team since it his its 2024 nadir at 7-19 after the sweep by the Cubs.
The number of games the Astros are on pace to win is important because it focuses on whether they will make the playoffs. The Mariners are on pace to win 92 games. The Astros can match that…if they play like the 2022 Astros and play at a 106 win pace. That will be difficult, especially as the injuries to the rotation have stacked up.
It’s more realistic for the Astros to get to the mid-to-high ‘80s. If they play at the pace of the 2021 division champions, they’ll get to 86 wins. And that may be enough to make the playoffs. It would have gotten the Astros the final Wild Card slot in 2022, the first year of the 12-team playoffs. It would not have been good enough in 2023.2
Will I focus on how many games back the Astros are from the AL West? Yes, later in the season if that seems to matter. But if the Astros play at a pace to win 84 games while the Mariners play at a pace to win 92, it won’t really matter. Games back in the division (or wild card) race only matter if they Astros play better than they have so far this season.
Fan How You Want to Fan
If you read this piece carefully, you will note that this is first sentence in which I have used the word “you.” I have written this as an explanation of what choices I am making as an Astros fan this season. These are my actions and my explanation for them. If they help you to make you own choices, great. I’m happy for that.
But I’m explicitly not telling people to stop posting about the Mariners. Fan how you want to fan. There are lots of different ways to be a baseball fan. Pick the ones that works for you.
There is of course an emotional attachment we have as fans to our favorite teams and humans emotions are difficult beasts. If it makes you feel better to read about the Mariners and the AL West race in addition to how the Astros are playing, do it.
But I’m content with my choice. Let’s just all hope the team plays as well as it needs to over the rest of the season.
I posted this on Sunday after the Astros defeated the Tigers to win that series.
It would have taken 84 wins to earn a Wild Card berth in 2022, but 89 wins to get a Wild Care berth in 2023.