What's the Long Term Plan at Catcher?

Martin Maldonado is expected to be the first string catcher again in 2023. But the the emergence of not one--but two--catching prospects mean there is competition for the 2024 season.

What’s the plan at catcher for the Astros in 2023? In many ways, it is similar to the plan in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Martin Maldonado is the every day catcher and he is likely to catch a majority of the games.

From 2020 to 2022, Maldonado started 274 of the 384 games that the Astros have played. That’s the second most in the majors, only three starts behind JT Realmuto of the Phillies. Maldonado should continue in his role as the primary catcher in 2022.

In fact, the decision that Maldonado should be the full-time catcher in 2023 was made well before this offseason. Maldonado signed a contract extension in 2021 that would pay him in 2023 if he played 90 games in 2022. The Astros made no effort to limit Maldonado’s playing time, and their durable catcher met the 90 game threshold a full six weeks before the season ended.

Maldonado is a poor offensive player; his .184/.248/.352 slash line in 2022 produced a wRC+ of 70, which is 30% below league average. Maldonado’s defensive statistics have declined in recent years in metrics like caught stealing percentage, framing runs, and defensive runs saved. But the Astros value Maldonado not for his quantitative numbers, but his qualitative skills. The Astros have valued Maldonado for his game calling, his detailed study of opposing hitters, and his psychological skills in shepherding the team’s pitchers. He is the “personal” catcher of over half of the team’s rotation.

And the team’s commitment to Maldonado was shown at the trade deadline in 2022 when Jim Crane refused to give approval to a trade that then General Manager James Clicck had worked out to bring Willson Contreras in for the playoff run in exchange for Jose Urquidy.

Crane did so at the behest of manager Dusty Baker, who explained his rationale to Jeff Passan of ESPN: “I needed a guy that wasn't going to complain about not playing every day.” Translation for the purposes of this article: I’m not playing Contreras every day at catcher over Maldonaldo.¹

But Maldonado is aging (aren’t we all) and his contract expires after the 2023 season. And that leads to the question of what is the long-term plan at catcher. We can reasonably assume that the plan at catcher in 2023 is the same as 2022, 2021, and 2020—play Machete a whole bunch. But what about after this season?

The Astros Were Connected to Lots of Catchers This Offseason

The Astros did not make add a catcher to their roster this offseason. On one level, that should not surprise anyone who knows of Maldonado’s contract for 2023 and the team’s commitment to him in previous seasons.

But it is surprising based on all of the catchers to which the Astros were connected by news reports this offseason. The Astros were linked to five different catchers this offseason: Willson Contreras, Sean Murphy, Daulton Varsho, Christian Vazquez, and Tucker Barnhart.

You can put these catchers into different categories. The Astros seemed to seek out Vazquez and Barnhart to be backups (though probably ones that cut some into Maldonado’s playing time). Vazquez chose a multi-year offer to start for the Twins and the Tigers have held on to Barnhart.

Varsho and Murphy are highly valuable players, and it is unlikely that the Astros had enough ammunition to match the offers that the Blue Jays and Braves made to acquire these players. Most likely, the front office was trying to see if they could get one of these players for cheap.²

But Contreras is in a different category. Chandler Rome reported that the Astros had “strong” interest in Contreras and “made at least one three-year offer to Contreras” But Contreras got a 5 year contract from the Cardinals for $17.5 million a season.

The Contreras offer is surprising because it does not fit the usual M.O. of the Astros front office since Crane bought the team. The Crane-led Astros have never signed a free agent who required them to give up draft pick compensation, as Contreras would have.

But the more surprising part is that Jim Crane was targeting a player that he had rejected back in the summer. Crane apparently was persuaded by Baker’s argument that he’d play Maldonado over Contreras in the summer, but then went back on that by December.

Maybe the plan was to make Contreras the DH and Yordan Alvarez the everyday left fielder in 2023. But Baker didn’t see that as an option in July of 2022 when the trade for Contreras was negotiated.

It’s a puzzling sequence, but in the end, one can regard it all as much ado about nothing. The Astros did not acquire Contreras, either in the summer or in the offseason. There may have been a thought to replace Maldonado, but they team was not able to execute that plan. Maldonado remains the first choice catcher for 2023.

Martin Maldonado (L) has been a durable first string catcher, valued for his relationship with his pitchers. But two Astros catching prospects on the 40 man roster—Korey Lee (M) and Yainer Daz (R) will challenge him for the first string catcher position…in 2024.

Lee and Diaz: On the Cusp of Major League Permanence

Maldonado has outlasted one possible challenger to his role as the first team catcher, but two other challengers are emerging.

The Astros minor league system has developed not one, but two catching prospects who are on the cusp of becoming full-time major league players in Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz.

Both made their major league debuts last season. Lee is notable for two major skills—a “plus plus arm” that holds down the running game and big power—he hit 25 home runs in 446 Pacific Coast League plate appearances in 2022. His hit tool is not a strength, and so he is projected by ZiPS for a slash line of .220/.276/.385 in 2023. While that is below the average major leaguer, it is very comparable to the average major league catcher; last year, MLB catchers slashed .226/.295/.367.

But if you want an above average hitting catcher, you can turn to Diaz. ZiPS projects Diaz to hit .266/.302/.432 for a 108 wRC+. Diaz, though, is not the defensive prospect that Lee is, as demonstrated by the fact that in the minors, he’s played more at first base or in the outfield corners than he has behind the dish. Diaz has good power (25 minor league home runs in 2022) but also an excellent contact rate—he’s never posted a K% above 18% at any level of the minor leagues.

Both saw significant time at AAA Sugar Land last season; Lee had 446 plate appearances for the Space Cowboys and Diaz had 219. They are both ready to be major leaguers.

And on Opening Day, one of them will be. As Brian McTaggart wrote last week, the Astros “appear to be set letting their youngsters handle the load when Spring Training begins next month.”

Lee and Diaz will battle it out in Spring Training to see who backs up Maldonado this season. And it’s likely the competition will continue past Opening Day. Expect both Lee and Diaz to see a good bit of time in Minute Maid Park this season.

The Plan for 2024 and Beyond

I viewed the reports linking the Astros to various catchers this offseason with suspicion. And part of that is that I preferred the Astros to go with their prospects as the second catcher on the major league roster. Again, Lee and Diaz have played enough in AAA that additional minor league at bats will have little benefit.

But big league time will have benefits. The Astros greatly value Maldonado’s knowledge of his pitchers—both of their pitching arsenals and their psychological tics. Lee and Diaz need to improve their knowledge of the Astros major league pitchers and it is difficult, if not impossible to do that, at Sugar Land.

And besides, both need to prepare to be the first catcher in 2024. The catching job is open in 2024 and if one of the two rookies establishes themselves as a real major leaguer in 2023, they may become the favorite to win the catching job.

In fact, in an ideal scenario, both get regular at bats in 2024. Diaz’s positional flexibility in the minors could lead to a scenario where Lee catches 100 games in 2024, Diaz catches the rest and then plays a number of games at first base or designated hitter while Lee is behind the plate. I’m not sure that is the most likely scenario, but I do find it to be the most hopeful one. It is hard enough to develop one young catcher. This presumes the Astros develop two.

Of course, there is no reason that Maldonado has to cede the starting job to the young guys. Maldonado’s skills at game calling and pitching counselor are likely to deteriorate less quickly than other skills. While his hitting or receiving skills could atrophy with age, his mental skills should not. His price as a free agent should be modest, so Maldonado—especially if he shows little sign of decline at the plate—is as strong a candidate to be the first string catcher in 2024 as Lee or Diaz is.

We know who the first string catcher is for 2023. But what happens in 2023 will go a long way to determining who the first string catcher is in 2024. My hope is that one of the young guys show enough this year to claim the job next year.

1. That Contreras seemed more likely to play DH than catcher makes Baker’s comments a puzzle, but again, that’s for a different topic.

2. And it is worth nothing, Varsho played more outfield than catcher last season and is expected to fully make the transition this season with the Blue Jays.