What the Hell Happened to the Texas Rangers?
The Rangers are struggling in 2024. It's due to a decline by their hitters, an average pitching staff, the failure to launch of their best young players. Enjoy it while we can Astros fans.
Last season, well…we all know how it ended. And the worrisome thing for Astros fans is that the their in-state rivals seemed poised to be AL West contenders in 2024 and beyond.
The Rangers led the American League in runs scored, hits, walks, batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage in 2023. The ten batters with the most plate appearances on the 2023 Rangers all recorded an OPS+ above 100 (i.e. league average). And they seemed poised to improve on that in 2024 as they would install postseason star Evan Carter and top prospect Wyatt Langford into their everyday lineup.
While projections systems showed the Astros to be the favorites in the AL West in 2024, many experts and fans thought the Rangers would win.
How is the 2024 Rangers season going? Well, Josh Smith is leading them in Wins Above Replacement with 3.4 And if you don’t remember Smith from the playoffs last season, don’t worry, it’s not you. Smith did not get a plate appearance in the2023 playoffs.
But the fact that Smith, who is a utility player who has mostly filled in at third base due to Josh Jung’s injury, is leading the Rangers in value, and not one of their stars like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, or Adolis Garcia is a clear indication that this season is not going well.
Another sign: two national reporters—Bob Nightengale and Ken Rosenthal have written about the Rangers possibly being sellers at the deadline. Rosenthal’s piece has little reporting, but had the speculative headline “Why the defending champion [sic, but literally] Rangers could be deadline sellers.” Nightengale has more definitive reporting: “Barring a dramatic turnaround, rival GMs expect the Rangers to make starters Max Scherzer, Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney available, along with relievers David Robertson and Kirby Yates.”
Here at Orange Fire Substack, we pay particular attention to the AL West because it affects the Astros fortunes so much. And with the Rangers coming to town today in the last series before the All Star break, this seemed a good reason to look out what has kept the Astros biggest rivals for the AL West title in 2023 a pretender in 2024.
The Offense Declined, Sharply
The Rangers offense was excellent in 2024. In 2023, not so much.
In 2023, as a team, the Rangers slashed .263/.337/.452 for a .790 OPS. Each of these components led the American League. Naturally, the Rangers also led the AL in ,OPS.
In 2023, the Rangers are being in all three components of their triple slash line, which is .243/.312/.385. They are well behind their 2024 pace in each. Their current OPS is .696, which is the 8th best in the American League.
Last season, the Rangers averaged 5.4 runs per game. This season, they are exactly a run worse at 4.4. In 2023, the Rangers were 3rd in the majors in scoring runs. This year, they are right at league average.
If the team’s offense has declined, that means the offensive contributions of individual players has declined. And you can see that in the chart below, which shows the OPS+ for six of the Rangers regulars from both last season and this season. These are among their most important players, and for five of them, their offensive contributions have declined significantly.
Corey Seager had one of his best seasons in 2023 with a 174 OPS+, but he has returned back to around his career average this year. And that’s the second best story on this chart for the Rangers. Four of the Rangers key hitters (Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, and Leody Tavares) have not only declined at the plate this season, but they have declined to have an OPS+ that is below 100.
Note that OPS+ is scaled so that 100 is exactly league average. These four have been below the average MLB offensive player this season. It’s dragged down the Rangers overall offensive capabilities and cost the team wins.
The Pitching is Average
In 2024, the major league ERA is 4.05. The Rangers have basically a league average pitching staff; their ERA is 4.02.
The biggest reason that the Rangers have been so mediocre as a pitching staff is the lack of star level contributions. By bWAR, their best pitcher is Nathan Eovaldi, whose 2.1 Wins Above Replacement ranks 29th best in the majors. Eovaldi has a 3.10 ERA in 16 starts. Again, that’s helpful, but no one is making an All-Star case for Eovaldi.
By fWAR, the Rangers leading pitcher is Jon Gray, whose 1.8 Wins Above Replacement ranks 40th best in the majors. Gray has a 4.01 ERA in 16 starts, though he has pitched in some bad luck—his FIP is half a run lower at 3.49.
The Rangers starting rotation this year has also featured MIcheal Lorenzen (3.52 ERA) and Andrew Heaney (3.80 ERA). This is cromulent performance, but not top level.
Of course, part of the reason for that is that Rangers top starting pitchers have been injured. The Rangers acquired Max Scherzer from the Mets last year at the trade deadline, but he has made only 3 starts this season due to an injury. Jacob de Grom is the Rangers actual best pitcher, and they’ll be fortunate to see him do that on a major league mound this season as he is recovering from Tommy John Surgery in 2023.
The Rangers bullpen has some effective relievers—Kirby Yates has been very good in taking over the closer job; David Robertson continues to perform well at age 39, and rookie Jacob Latz has developed into an effective bullpen arm.
But overall, the Rangers bullpen has been a drag on their efforts in 2024. Rangers relievers have a combined 4.38 ERA, which is 25th best in the majors.
The Young Players Have Not Contributed…Yet
In writing about the AL West in the offseason, I noted that the Astros were projected to finish ahead of the Rangers, but that “the Rangers could exceed their projections thanks to their rookies.”
In particular, I noted two rookies who could make a big impact for the Rangers: Evan Carter, who starred for the Rangers in the 2023 playoffs; and Wyatt Langford, who was the Rangers first round draft pick in 2023.
Both have been reminders that the path for prospects to major league stardom is rocky and winding. Langford made the Rangers Opening Day lineup and has been an average major league player- He’s slashing .266/.329/.402 for a 108 OPS+ and a fWAR of 1.3 . It’s useful to have league average players and thus, Langford has been a contributor this season. But the concern for us Astros fans was that Langford would be a star quickly. He has just been another average player on a team made up of tons of average players in 2024.
And Langford is the success story among the Rangers two Rookie of the Year candidates. Carter was went on the IL in late May with a back injury and he has just returned to baseball activities. His play on the field indicates he may have been suffering from that back injury for a while. He has slashed .188/.272/361 for an OPS+ of 79.
And though he is not a rookie, we can lump Josh Jung into this section. Jung broke his wrist on a hit by pitch four games into this season and he has not played since. Jung was the Rangers top prospect who was supposed to take over at third base in 2022, but another injury limited him to 26 games in September. He had a solid 2023 (.266/.315/467 in 515 plate appearances) and the Rangers hoped he would build on those numbers in 2024. His injury has kept him from doing so.
There was every reason to think that some of the Rangers top hitters from 2023 (Garcia, Heim, Semien) would regress to the mean in 2024. Those were baked into pre-season projections. The bullish case for the 2024 Rangers was that their young prospects would take up that slack by becoming positive regulars. That has not happened.
Bad Pythagorean Luck
I have so far described the Rangers as a team with a runs scored per game and and earned run average right around league average. We can see that in the Rangers run differential. Over 93 games, they have scored just 9 runs more than they have lost. That should produce right around a .500 record.
But it has not. The Rangers are 5 games under .500 at 44-49. Their “pythagorean” or “expected” record, which is based on the number of runs they have scored an allowed is 47-46. The Rangers “should” be 3 games better than their actual record.
Luck plays an important part in all sports, but especially in baseball where the margins are so thin. The Rangers are giving back three games over what their record “should” be due to the ball bouncing the wrong way.
It has cost them in the standings. The Rangers are 7 games back in the AL West. More crucially in my opinion, they are not only 7.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but there are four other teams between them and the final AL Wild Card spot—currently held by the Red Sox at 51-41.
To get to the playoffs, the Rangers need to get hotter over the second half of the season than five other teams. That’s not impossible (see our favorite team for an example of that), but it’s unlikely. As a result, Fangraphs gives the Rangers only an 8.6% chance of making the playoffs.
You can see why Rosenthal and Nightengale are writing stories about the Rangers selling at the deadline. Their chances of making it to the playoffs are slim and the best hopes are in the future.
There is also reasons for the Rangers to think about the future and see it as sunnier. Carter and Jung will be strong contributors if they can stay healthy and those who are average major leaguers at 22 like Langford tend to improve until they peak in their late 20s.
Therefore, I don’t think the Rangers days as contenders in the AL West are over. But they are nonexistent this year. And as Astros fans, we can enjoy that.