What Can Brown Do For You? Pitch Well, We Hope.
That's what he's done in the PCL. He's got big league stuff, but he needs to get his command under control.
The question was raised in early June by Christian Esparza at Climbing Tal’s Hill: “It almost seems inevitable that Hunter Brown will be making his major league appearance at some point this season.”
Then later in the month by Cody Poage at The Crawfish Boxes: “We’re at this juncture in the season when it is reasonable to see those numbers and wonder how soon will Brown make his Major League debut.”
And in July, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle addressed the issue in early July: “Hunter Brown believes he is big league ready. Statistics, stuff and his recent stranglehold on the Pacific Coast League suggest he’s right. Ask anyone around Class AAA Sugar Land, and they’ll agree the Space Cowboys’ ace shouldn’t be on the team.”
Yesterday, it finally happened. The Astros called up Hunter Brown, their top prospect, from Sugar Land and added him to the active roster.
That so many Astros writers over the last several months have speculated that Hunter Brown should be called up is an indication that Brown is ready to pitch in the majors.
And the fact that the Astros did not call him up until rosters expanded on September 1st in an indication that they did not need him. Brown is a starting pitcher and the Astros have had the absolute blessing of high quality and healthy starting pitching in the 2022 season. The Astros have had only seven pitchers start a game for them this season, with six of them able to stay off the IL for the first five plus months of the season. While Jake Odorizzi was dealt at the trade deadline, Lance McCullers re-joined the rotation soon after.
The Best Pitcher in the Pacific Coast League
But the delay in Brown’s in the promotion to the majors does not take away the fact that Brown deserves one. He has been outstanding in the Pacific Coast League.
In 106 AAA innings this season, Brown has allowed an ERA of just 2.55, a WHIP of 1.08. There are two keys to this excellent performance by Brown. He has allowed only 70 hits and a batting average against of .185 in those 106 innings. And he strikes lots of batters out; Brown has struck out 134 batters. Or to put it another way, Brown has struck out 31.5% of the batters he has seen this season. Brown has also succeede in keeping the ball in the park, allowing only 5 home runs on the season.
Put it together and Brown has been the best pitcher in the PCL this season. He leads that lead in ERA, strikeouts, K/9 (11.4), HR/9 (0.42), K%, WHIP, FIP (3.30), and xFIP (3.63). He seems the favorite to win the PCL’s Pitcher of the Year award.1
Brown has one big weakness, which is command. He has walked 10.6% of batters he has faced this season. That is 20th best among the 29 pitchers in the PCL who have thrown 80 innings or more this season.
The good news is that in Sugar Land, the walks didn’t hurt his performance. He struck out enough batters that he still leads the league in K% minus BB%, a good measure of overall effectiveness. His 2022 walk rate is down from the 13.4% rate he had in AA in 2021 and the 17.6% rate he showed in A ball in 2019, but it is still a concern.
Big League Stuff, Especially on His Secondary Pitches
How does Brown generate such a high whiff rate? Smith Brickner at Baseball Prospectus wrote a scouting report on Brown this week when the call-up was announced. He noted that his secondaries “are his money pitches.” His curveball is “a firm 12-6 curve that has exceptional, late breaking qualities.” Brown’s slider “acts as a de facto cutter with plus horizontal bite.” And while Brown throws his changeup the least of his four pitches, “it’s actually the pitch he’s generated the most whiffs per swing on: it tunnels extremely well with his heater and has above-average sink.” Brown’s fastball is average, but he throws is hard (95-97 MPH) and up in the strike zone, so it contrasts well with this off speed pitches.
Could Brown Pitch Make the Playoff Roster? Unlikely, but Possible
So what can we expect from Brown this season? One answer is not much. Due to the Astros chasing the division title and preparing for October, it is unlikely that Brown will pitch a ton of innings or in key games. On Tuesday, pitching coach Josh Miller said that Brown will “be eased in somehow out of the bullpen…We’ll see what the team needs are toward the back half of September and go from there.”
With the team having had two off-days this week and another one next Thursday, it seems likely Brown will pitch out of this bullpen this weekend in Anaheim and against the Rangers next week back at Minute Maid Park.
But after that, the Astros play on 17 straight days. Brown might be folded into a 6-man rotation during that stretch—maybe he’ll start the afternoon game on Wednesday, September 14th in Detroit.
Of course, those plans all depend on the health of Justin Verlander’s calf, though the team has every reason to be cautious with Verlander in September, because of his importance in October.
And a mention of October leads to another question for Brown: could he make the team’s playoff roster? Maybe, but spots are limited. The Astros will certain carry four starting pitchers (Verlander, Framber, McCullers, and Urquidy). The top four bullpen arms are obvious too (Pressly, Montero, Neris, and Stanek). Cristian Javier may start or may relieve in October, but he’s a lock for the roster, as is Bryan Abreu. And Dusty Baker has treated Will Smith as a leverage reliever, so he’s likely to make the roster.
That’s 11 spots. The team may carry 12 or 13 pitchers on a playoff roster, so that leaves 1 to 2 spots between Luis Garcia, Phil Maton, Seth Martinez, Blake Taylor (who was recently sent to a rehab assignment), and Hunter Brown. It is possible that Brown could pitch his way onto the playoff roster this September. But my guess is that right now he is on the outside looking in.
But that speaks to the broad quality of the Astros pitching depth this season. They have had seen excellent performances from both their starters and their relievers. That fact has delayed Brown’s promotion to the big club.
But Brown is a very good prospect, and he has a good chance of joining the rotation in the 2023 season and beyond. He needs to continue to work on his command, but he has big league stuff. And now we get to see it in the big leagues.
Others who have won that award include Cy Young winners Felix Hernandez and R.A. Dickey, as well as Astros legends Bud Norris and Jeroime Robertson. Last year’s winner was Peter Solomon, who the Astros DFA’ed to clear a 40-man roster spot for Brown.