Walks Don't Kill, but Homers Do, Especially by Yordan: Observations on the Game 2 Win
The Astros kept the Ms from homering, which allowed them to get away with too many walks. Dusty keeps getting burned by the 3rd time through the order penalty. And Yordan is good at hitting baseballs.
A bunch of observations on today’s 4-2 victory by our favorite team over the Mariners. They are now up 2-0 in the American League Division Series.
The Astros were the 2nd best team in the majors at preventing home runs. Today, they did not give up a home run while their batters hit two.
And it’s a good thing to hit more home runs than your opponent. So far this season, teams that outhomer their opponent are 8-4. And it’s really hard to get outhomered if you don’t allow a homer.
In his postgame press conference, Scott Servais said “[t]hey had a few things go their way today and we did not.” And certainly, one can identify some hits by the Mariners that could have snuck through for a base hit.
But one way to avoid the vagaries of batted ball luck is to hit the ball where batted ball luck does not apply. The Astros were able to do that today, and the Mariners were not. It’s a huge reason the Astros came out ahead.
Astros pitchers walked seven batters today. It’s a disturbing number, for obvious reasons. In my ALDS preview, I noted that one place where the Mariners had a clear advantage over the Astros was that their batters were top tier in drawing walks while Astros pitchers were middle tier in giving up walks.
That Mariners advantage showed up today. Mariner hitters drew a walk in the fourth, two in the sixth, two in the seventh, one in the eighth and one in the ninth. Yet, remarkably, only one of these free baserunners came home against Astros pitchers. Mariner hitters were 1 for 6 with runners in scoring position.
The Astros cannot expect to get away with so many walks again in this series.
Pitchers do worse when facing batters the third time through the order. This is true for mediocre pitchers; true for bad pitchers, and true for Cy Young candidates.
In both of the first two games, Dusty Baker has let his pitchers work against Mariners hitters a third time, and in both cases it has not gone well.
In Game 1, he kept a struggling Justin Verlander in to face Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, and Eugenio Suarez. They went triple, double, and single, and Verlander only got out of the inning thanks to Yordan Alvarez throwing out France at the plate.
In Game 2, Framber Valdez retired the first three batters the third time through, then gave up a walk to Mitch Haniger, a double to Carlos Santana, and a walk to Dylan Moore.
Pressing his luck the third time through the order has not worked so far for Dusty Baker.1 We’ll see what he does on Saturday with Lance McCullers on the mound.
Framber’s difficulty with the third time through the order did not affect the scoreboard thanks to Hector Neris, who was called upon to clean up Valdez’s mess. He succeeded, inducing Cal Raleigh to ground out to shortstop.
This was Neris’s first postseason appearance. He debuted in the majors in 2014.
Bryan Abreu. 2 G. 2 IP. 0 R. 1 H. 1 BB. 4 Ks. His development has greatly lengthened the bullpen and its effectiveness.
Now it’s time to appreciate Yordan Alvarez.
Yes, Yordan Alvarez has been as good as you thought.
Yes, Yordan Alvarez has been as good as you thought.
And since Game 2 wasn’t over, Alvarez added to his WPA when he was intentionally walked in the bottom of the 8th. It’s now 1.375 for the series.
Another way to discuss the fact that Yordan Alvarez has been as good as you though it to simply describe what happened in the bottom of the eighth. With a runner on first and two outs, the Mariners chose to intentionally walk Yordan Alvarez. Scott Servais elected to put a runner in scoring position rather than face Yordan.
The move of course immediately backfired, as Alex Bregman drove the first pitch he saw into right field for a RBI single.
Walking a guy without a base open invokes the name of one great, and one all-time great only.
Bonds’s former manager agreed.
National reporters know that the Astros are an extremely good baseball team. But during the course of the regular season, they trying to keep up with 30 teams, most of which play every day. So the Astros are not always top of mind for them as they are for us Astros fans.
And so in the playoffs, when they watch the Astros every day, when they watch other teams sweat bullets through every single pitch, they are reminded of what we get to see every day watching our team. They are ridiculously good.
This is the team we cheer for. This is the team we get to watch everyday.
One that makes even the most knowledgeable baseball observers express surprise at how good they are. They know the Astros are good, and then they focus on them, and they seem even better than they thought.
It’s a great time to be an Astros fan.
Though it’s worth noting that Yordan Alvarez hit his 6th inning homer the third time he faced Luis Castillo in this game.