Theme #2--You're Not Imagining It. There Have Been a Lot of Injuries
In fact, literally more injuries than any other team in the majors. And it has cost the Astros more value than any other team.
May is a busy month in the real world for the Orange Fire Substack, and thus, not much posting. The good news on that front is that we are beginning June, and that’s a better month in my real-world job. Or to put it another way—commencement was yesterday at the College where I work; it summer for professors like me.
In light of that, I’ll publish multiple articles this week trying to summarize the big themes of the 2026 Astros season to this point. There should be one a day for each weekday this week. Today, it’s the injuries.
You’re not just imagining it. The Astros have suffered a lot of injuries this year. How many? Baseball Prospectus tracks the effects of a team’s injuries at their Injury List Ledger. The figure below shows what you probably suspected based on feel: The Astros lead major league baseball in games lost of the injured list.
Astros players have missed a total of 742 games in the 2026 season. That’s 37 more games lost to the IL than the second place Dodgers. Since the Astros have played 61 games total this season, that means the Astros have had an average of 12.2 players on the injured list each game this season.
That hurts a team, doesn’t it? Intuitively, you the answer is yes. And the good new is that the analytics confirm your gut instinct. The Injury List Ledger also measures the amount of WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) each team has lost due to injuries. WARP is Baseball Prospectus’s catch-all statistic for overall value, combining contributions at the plate, on the mound, and in the field. And again, the Astros lead the majors in value lost due to injuries.
Baseball Prospectus’s calculations say that the Astros have lost 5.0 Wins due to having players on the injured list. The chart above helps show you how big a gap that is on the average time, which has lost right around 2 wins due to injuries. The Astros have lost 3 more wins than most of those team. In fact, only three other teams have lost more than 3 wins to injuries.
The Astros stand at the top, and do so by a healthy—or should I say unhealthy—margin.
A Full Roster of Injured Players
How many injured player have the Astros had. Well, you could make an entirely lineup out of the Astros position players who have spent time on the injured list this season.
1. Jeremy Pena ss (35 days on IL)
2. Jose Altuve dh (13 days on IL and counting)
3. Carlos Correa 3b (25 days and out for season)
4. Yainer Diaz c (25 days on IL and counting)
5. Joey Loperfido lf (42 days on IL and counting)
6. Zach Dezenzo 1b (40 days on IL)
7. Taylor Trammell rf (35 days on IL)
8. Jake Myers cf (40 days on IL)
9. Nick Allen 2b (15 days on IL)
I don’t know if that team would get to the playoffs, but I think it could finish .500 if it got good pitching. And it is a clear sign of how deep the injury issues have been for the Astros this season that you can make an entire legitimate starting lineup out of those on the injured list in just the first 61 games of the season.
And it gets worse when you look at the pitching staff.
There are several reasons for that, but it starts with the fact that Hunter Brown, the team’s ace, has only made two starts this season and has been on the IL for 58 games (and counting). Brown is making rehab starts in the minors and should be back relatively soon, but the rotation has been gasping for stability ever since he went out back in early April.
Part of that rotation instability is because the injuries to starting pitchers are not limited to Brown. Cristian Javier made 3 poor starts this season and then went on the IL on April 9, the same fateful road trip where Brown went on the IL. Lance McCullers held out for 8 starts, but an injury and ineffectiveness chased him from the rotation.
Tatsuya Imai also was on the IL for 30 days in April and May with right arm fatigue. The good news is that Imai has returned from the IL and has thrown 2 straight quality starts. The bad news is that the injuries to the rotation have compelled the Astros to give starts to pitchers such as Ryan Weiss (7.62 ERA), Jason Alexander (9.33 ERA), Cody Bolton (5.40 ERA) and Colton Gordon (11.57 ERA). Those ERAs give you a sense of how those efforts have gone.
The bullpen has suffered as well. Set-up man Bennett Sousa started the year on the IL, came back for 3 appearances, and then returned to the IL. From that standpoint, it’s better that Nate Pearson has now made 4 relief appearances since he returned from the IL. Enyel de los Santos’s IL stint was relatively mild in comparison—missing only the first 12 games of the season.
Hader’s Return
Of course, I have saved the biggest bullpen injury—Josh Hader’s—for last. Hader is the team’s closer and one of the highest paid relievers in baseball. He has not pitched at all this season, and his injury—and Bryan Abreu’s ineffectiveness—have left an unstable situation at the back end of the bullpen.
Hader was injured in 2025 and his shoulder issues lingered into 2026, keeping him off of the mound. Hader’s injury in 2025 was particularly painful for the Astros, as it seemed to be the last straw that broke the team’s pitching staff. The Astros succeeded in the first half of 2025 thanks to the depth of their bullpen, but that depth collapsed in the second half of the season when Hader (and Sousa) went on the IL. The team missed the playoffs by one game.
This is a fortuitous day to write about the Astros injuries because Josh Hader is expected to be activated today. There are lots of reasons to think that the 2026 Astros are worse than recent versions of this team. I’ll address more of these reasons in the next two days and injuries will continue to hurt the offense with Correa out for the season. But the formula for success in 2025 was built from the back of the pitching staff to the front, centered on Hader.
In 2025, Hader had a 2.05 ERA, striking out 76 batters and walking only 16 in 52.2 high leverage innings. Could he return to those levels?
My guess is that it is unlikely—he is older and coming off of a long injury. But Hader’s absence so far in 2026 has crippled the team’s bullpen. The hope is that he can restore the team’s bullpen as closer.
And even if Hader is not as good as last season, it will be good to see him on the mound in 2026. This season has been marked by so many injuries. Hader on the mound in the 9th this week is a sign that the worst is over. Hopefully.
Just a short comment about all the injuries. Maybe the training exercises being implemented are the wrong exercises for a baseball team with the Astros' talent.