The Realist's Case for Jake Meyers

Jake Meyers seems a source of frustration for Astros fans. But his occasional power and elite defense make him a good major leaguer.

I will make an unpopular argument; one that I believe holds a minority position among Astros fans. Jake Meyers is a good major leaguer.

I can’t prove how popular or unpopular a player is, but I certainly sense a great deal of frustration with Jake Meyers among Astros fans. The average one seems to see him as a negative.

I am certainly not going to argue that Jake Meyers is a secret All-Star, or that he will be a breakout player for the Astros in 2025. Instead, I will argue that Jake Meyers’ combination of occasional power and elite center field defense make the current version of him a good player.

A Below Average Hitter With Good Power

I will just start using numbers—Jake Meyers was good for 2.0 fWAR in the 2024 season. That is, he was worth 2 wins more than a guy the Astros could have called up from AAA or gotten off of the waiver wire. That was better than Mauricio Dubon (1.2 fWAR), better than Spencer Arrighetti (1.6 fWAR). Meyers was the Astros 7th most valuable position player in 2024 and the team’s 11th most valuable overall player by this measure.

That’s not All Star level (they are usually worth 3.0 WAR or more). But the rule of thumb is that 2 WAR is the level of an average major league regular.

Meyers is not a strong offensive player. In 2024, Meyers slashed .219/.286/.360. This is not great obviously, but it is livable for a regular. Heck, it’s just about the same slash line as Mauricio Dubon (.269/.296/.361), who is much more beloved by Astros fans.

That slash line gives Meyers an OPS+ of 85 in 2024, which is 15% worse than a league average hitter. Notably, this is right at his career average (86 OPS+). In short, Meyers had the same level of production in 2024 as he has had all of his career.

Meyers does have one useful skill as a hitter—he can hit homers. He set a career high in 2024 with 13 homers. Again, you’d rather Yordan up and Meyers on base when you need a game winner homer, but Meyers’ power allows him to run into a ball and send it to the Crawford Boxes.

At this point in his career, we know what we are going to get from Meyers at the plate. He’s a bottom of the order hitter who will provide some value via power and will come in at around 15% below league average at the plate.

An Elite Defensive Center Fielder

While I think Astros fans tend are too critical of Meyers’s struggles at the dish, it’s clear why the are unhappy with him. He is clearly a net negative with a bat in his hand. But Meyers is definitely a positive with a glove in his hand. How much of a positive is he?

In 2024, Statcast credited Meyers with 14 Outs Above Average. That is the 15th best of any player at any position in all of baseball. That’s at the 97th percentile of all defensive players in baseball.

Statcast finds that Meyers is particularly effective going back on a ball over his head. There, he produced 10 Outs Above Average, 3rd best in the majors behind only the two Gold Glove winners for center field. He is not as strong coming in on balls, but he is still 4 Outs Above Average there, again showing that he is an excellent defender.

Statcast can also determine how good a “jump” each outfielder gets on a batted ball. These metrics again show that Meyers is elite. He gains 2.2 more feet in the first three seconds after a ball is released than the average outfielder; that’s 13th best in the majors. The metrics also show that Meyers has a particularly strong burst after he identifies where a ball is going (17th best int the majors) and takes some of the best routes to the ball in the majors (14th best).

It is also worth noting that Meyers’ excellent defensive numbers are coming in an era where outfield defense is better than ever. Mike Petriello of MLB.com showed that outfielders in 2024 were catching the highest share of batted balls since such recording began in the early 2000s. Metrics on outfield defense like those I have cited above are “informing” how teams make decisions. As a result Zach Crizer of Opta Analysts finds that “plodding center fielders are being rooted out like trans fats or red dye.”

That means Meyers elite defense is not an artifact of a weak field. He is an elite defender among one of the best groups of defensive centerfielders ever recorded.

Jake Meyers doing what he does best—tracking down fly balls in center field.

A Cromulent Player

Jake Meyers is an excellent defensive center fielder and a below average offensive player. If you put that together, we get what we have seen from Meyers over his time as the Astros starting center fielder—an average major league regular.

I think some of the perception from Meyers as an underachieving player stems from his hot rookie season in 2021, when he set a career high with a .761 OPS in 163 plate appearances. He has never matched that and, at this point on his aging curve, he is unlikely to ever do that.

Meyers also seems to talk less to the media and is less charismatic when he does than Dubon, a fan favorite with a similar set of skills and track record as Meyers. As an analyst, this reminds me to judge players based on their performance not their personalities.

Of course, the Astros should not be locked into Meyers long-term. He is an average player, and if prospect Jacob Melton outplays him, I would have no problem with Melton taking the center field job.

I titled this article “the realist’s case for Jake Meyers” for what should be a clear reason at this point. Jake Meyers is a helpful player for the Astros. That is obviously not a huge compliment. He is not an All-Star and likely never will be. He is not someone who will get a huge free agent contract in a few years. He is not a middle-of-the-order hitter.

But the reality is, average major leaguers like Jake Meyers are helpful players. They keep teams from having to use replacement level players and keep teams afloat so that star level players can win lots of games.

In reality, the Astros have a number of issues to deal with this season (2nd base, rotation depth) and in the future (Framber’s free agency, a weak farm system). Center field is not one of them. Jake Meyers is a good player and that will be good enough.