The Not-So Lost Weekend
The Astros played poorly in getting swept by the Yankees. But thanks to bad weekends from the Ms and Rangers, it did not cost them that much in the division or the Wild Card race.
I’m not here to tell you that this weekend against the Yankees was pleasant or irrelevant. The Astros got swept. None of the starting pitchers had excellent games. The bats fell silent. The team that we all love to hate provided us more reasons to hate them.
The team that is going through a miserable season finally got to dish out some misery, and our boys had to take it.
What I am here to tell you is that the sweep to the Yankees did not cost the Astros that much in the overall playoff picture. For that, we have the Mets and Twins to thanks. Those two teams won 2 of 3 games against the Mariners and Rangers respectively this weekend, which mean the Astros lost only one game in the standings to their division rivals, despite getting swept.
The biggest damage to the Astros playoffs chances came in Colorado, where the Blue Jays won 2 of 3 from the Rockies, scoring a pair in the top of the 9th yesterday to break open a tie game. The Blue Jays gained 2 games on the Wild Card race this weekend but are 1.5 games behind the Astros and Rangers. So the Astros still remain in a favorable position to the Blue Jays.
Slight Favorites in the AL West
As a result of the weekend, the Astros remain slight—through slight is a key word—favorites to take the AL West crown and very strong favorites to claim a playoff spot. You can see that in the sets of daily updated playoff projections posted at Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
You can click the links above to dig into the nitty-gritty of each, but I have posted their big numbers below. Each of the three systems creates the number of projected wins on the season, and each team’s percentage chances of winning the division and making the playoffs. These numbers were all updated overnight.
Fangraphs has the Astros as slightly more likely to win the division than the Mariners. Baseball Prospectus has the Astros much more likely to win the division than the Mariners. And Baseball Reference has the Mariners slightly more likely to win the division than the Astros.
All three systems think that the Rangers are the least likely team to win the division and that the Blue Jays are the least likely team of any of these four to miss the playoffs.
In short, looking at these numbers, the team you’d want to be is the Astros. They are the most likely to have the most success over the season’s final 24 games.
Need to Outplay the Mariners and Rangers
The task for the Astros over the next 24 games is to outplay the Mariners and the Rangers (and to a lesser extent the Blue Jays). The still have an excellent chance to win the AL West if play well over the next four weeks.
But here’s the thing about the current position of the Astros in the playoff chase—that would be true still if they had swept the Yankees rather than losing all three games. In a close playoff race, an individual game or two or three does not matter than much. They matter in collection with other games.
Obviously, the Astros would be in a much better position today if they had won three games against the Yankees, or two games or one game. But the task would not change—the Astros would still need to outplay their division rivals over the final 24 games.
Quite obviously, each individual game is more important in a tight division race than it was in seasons like in 2021 or 2022 where the Astros big division lead meant that any individual loss did not sting that much. But each individual game matters only in conjunction with other individual games.
That is true in good seasons and true in more modest seasons like 2023. And will be true about each individual game the Astros play until the final few games of the season—and of course the playoffs.
Turn It Around Today
One of the best things about baseball—and the psychology of following a baseball team—is that the sport is played almost daily. As a result, the Astros have a chance to turn around their fortunes quickly this afternoon in Arlington. The team—and its fans—do not have to wait long to get a victory and feel a lot better. And it is likely that preparation for today’s game will dominate the thoughts of Astros players today, rather than dwelling on the sweep against the Yankees.
But regardless of today’s outcome, the Astros task is the same. They need to win more than the Mariners and Rangers going forward. The odds show that they are plenty capable to doing that. They just need to show it on the field.