The Hope and the Plan to Deal with the Issues With Pitching Depth
4 of the Astros top 7 starters are out after elbow surgeries. I detail the team's plans for pithing depth right now and its hopes not to have to touch it.
More bad news came to the Astros this week. On Wednesday, General Manager Dana Brown announced that both Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy would have elbow surgery and be out for the rest of the season.
While the Astros did not announce what type of surgery the two starting pitchers would have, Chandler Rome of The Athletic had previously reported that Javier would have Tommy John surgery on June 6. Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan on ESPN reported on Monday that Urquidy would see specialist Keith Meister and “could be headed for a second Tommy John surgery.”
Gonzalez replied to his tweet announcing the Urquidy news by writing "The Astros rotation is going through it this year.” Which is way too accurate.
Urquidy had actually not pitched in the majors at all this year after suffering an injury in Spring Training. Justin Verlander started the season on the IL after an offseason “hiccup.” Framber Valdez had his own stint on the IL in April. JP France pitched poorly, was send down to AAA, and then got injured. And both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers are not expected to pitch in the majors until after the All-Star break as both are recovering from their own elbow surgeries in 2023.
At the moment, the Astros have five healthy starting pitchers on the team’s 40 man roster—Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, and Spencer Arrighetti.
Dana Brown described this group as a “playoff rotation” on a radio show earlier this week. That’s an optimistic take—common for Brown when speaking to the media—but one can see Brown’s argument. Verlander and Valdez are proven; Blanco made a huge step up this offseason, and Brown and Arrighetti have righted the ship after big struggles in April.
The Hope to Keep The Current Rotation Healthy
The big concern is what comes next. What do the Astros do now that they are down to only five healthy starting pitchers?
The first strategy is less a strategy than a hope—hope that these five starting pitchers can stay healthy and keep making their turn in the rotation. As long as these five starters stay healthy, the Astros should be fine. While it would be great if Verlander and Valdez could improve on ERAs in the high 3.00s, each of the five has shown themselves capable of throwing quality starts.
The issue is what happens if one of them goes down. I was quite nervous when Arrighetti had to leave his start on Tuesday when he took a comebacker off of his calf, because the alternatives to these five are much less pleasant.
The Plan If Another Starter Goes Down
In his radio interview this week, Dana Brown mentioned three different minor league pitchers—AJ Blubaugh, Colton Gordon, and Jake Bloss. None have made their major league debut and none are considered a top prospect. But each has pitched well enough this season to draw some attention in the front office, with Bloss having earned a promotion from Ashville to Corpus Christi and Blubaugh earning one from Corpus Christi to Sugar Land.
The Astros would of course prefer not to call any one of the three up without more seasoning in the minors, but they are options if needed.
The more likely immediate option is Eric Lauer. Lauer has 112 major league starts with the Padres and Brewers with a 4.30 ERA. Lauer emerged as an effective starter with the Brewers in 2021 and 2022, but injuries derailed his career last season, when he had a 6.56 ERA in 46.2 major league innings. The Brewers optioned him to AAA, then outrighted him at the end of the 2023 season. Lauer signed a minor league contract with the Pirates for this Spring Training and pitched on their AAA team until he opted out of his contract on May 15. He signed shortly after with the Astros.
Lauer seems to have declined from his 2021-2022 peak (he has a 5.95 ERA in 39.1 AAA innings this season, but represents an experienced option for the Astros to consider.
He also represents a strategy we are likely to see more of from Dana Brown over the next few weeks—scouring the minor leagues for rotation depth options. The Astros were able to sign Lauer because they were able to convince him he’d have a better chance to return to the major here than on another pitching desperate team. They can try that again with other minor league free agents or look to players at the end of 40-man rosters and see if they can get that player for a minor leaguer.
This is not an ideal strategy—Lauer has been released by two organizations in the last 9 months—but it does add more possibilities for the Astros. It is also a difficult strategy to execute—teams don’t like to give up on starting pitching prospects. Just about every other team needs starters as desperately as the Astros do.
The Last Hope: The Return of Garcia and McCullers
The last strategy is the one with the most promise—hope that Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers return as effective starting pitchers. When healthy and on, both are obviously better pitchers than Eric Lauer and more experience than minor leaguers like Blubaugh, Gordon, and Bloss.
Both are still a ways away from pitching on the mound at Minute Maid Park and will need a full minor league rebab stint to prepare themselves to pitch in the major leagues. But they are the best hopes for the Astros to have an effective rotation in August and September.
Garcia and McCullers represent the best hope that the Astros can also back off on the innings they throw Blanco, Hunter Brown, and Arrighetti. Teams have been trying to reduce the innings they get from young starters or converted relievers and it is likely they hope to back off on the toll on these young arms.
I have mentioned the word hope several times in this article. You may have mentally responded to that word with the aphorism “hope is not a plan.” And fair enough, you’re not wrong.
I have sketched out actual plans here—minor leaguers and guys on the end of 40-man rosters. It’s not ideal, to say the least. And these hopes and plans are a clear reminders—injuries suck. It’s not good to have 4 of your 7 best starters out with elbow surgery.
Let’s hope for healthy returns for all of them.