The Fangraphs Trade Value Lists Shows that the End of This Contention Window is Close
Only 1 Astros--Yordan Alvarez--made the list of the highest trade values in baseball. It shows that the team lacks young star players, and that does not bode well for the medium term.
In 2021, I wrote an article headlined “The Fangraphs Trade Value List Shows the Astros Window Is Not Closing.”
The article was based on the annual Fangraphs Trade Value list, published each year in July in anticipation of the trade deadline. The list that year had five Astros on it—Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, and Luis Garcia—the most of any team.
I wrote that having that may players on the list was “an indication that the team's window for contention is not closing after this season. The Astros have a core of young players to go with veterans like Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley that will make them strong contenders to win the AL West again in 2022 and 2023.”
That held up.
This year, Fangraphs published their list of the Top 50 trade values once again. Once again, the list was an attempt to find the “the 50 players in baseball who I think would fetch the most if their team traded them.” But this time, things were different. Only one Astros was listed. Yordan Alvarez clocked in at #8 on the list, between Shohei Ohtani and Adley Rutschman.
If having five players on the list is an indication that the Astros window of contention will stay open, having only one player on the list is a sign that the window of contention may not be open for much longer.
I won’t say that the window is closing, because there are a number of factors that indicate that the Astros can be playoff contenders in the near future, including the increased willingness of owner Jim Crane to spend on payroll and a lack of young talent in the AL West. But the formula for success over the last eight seasons—develop a young core of star level players, which this franchise did twice over that time period—is not available right now.
Yordan Alvarez. An Excellent Player Years Away from Free Agency
The good news for the Astros is that they have one of the very best players in baseball in Yordan Alvarez, who also happens to be years away from free agency. In writing up the Top 50 list, Ben Clemens wrote that “If you know ball, you know that Alvarez is a capital-D dude, and he’s on an excellent contract too.”
Why is the Alvarez contract excellent? For one, he is signed through the 2028 season, thanks to an extension Alvarez signed during the 2022 season. The extension paid him below market rates for his final three arbitration seasons, and will then pay him $26 million a season for the 2026 through 2028 seasons. Alvarez is also one of the best sluggers in baseball. His .950 OPS this season is sixth highest in the majors this season.
In 2021, I wrote that “the list is dominated by two types of players—the very best players in baseball…and good players who are years away from free agency.” That Alvarez combines both of those components puts him near the top of the list at #8. And it’s why he’s been near the top of this list so often. This is his fifth appearance on the top trade value list, and his third straight season in the top 10. In 2021, he ranked 11th.
Lots of Honorable Mentions
That only one Astros made a list of the very best players in baseball or are years away from free agency tells you that the Astros lack those types of players.
Three Astros were actually mentioned in the list’s honorable mention section—Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, and Hunter Brown. Why did these three not make the full list?
A big answer is their contract situations. One can argue that Tucker is among the best players in baseball—he certainly played like it before his injury in early June. But Tucker is a free agent after the 2025 season, so he is only around for 8 more months of baseball. That he’ll spend the current month on the IL is a drag to his value. In short, Tucker is too close to free agency to be on the list.
Pena is a quality regular. He has produced 2.9 bWAR this season and 11.7 over his three year career. But his league average bat limits his value, as does the fact that his salary is increasing and he will be a free agent after the 2027 season.
Hunter Brown established himself as a rotation regular in 2023, but seemed to be regressing in early 2024. He’s turned that around and had an excellent two-and-a-half months as a starting pitcher, but that’s not a long enough track record to make the list.
Put these together, and one can see that Tucker, Pena, and Brown have good value, but each has something limiting their long-term value on the trade market. The Astros lack players with fewer limits on such value.
Who Fell Off the List
They had them in 2021, when in addition to Alvarez, Tucker, Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, and Luis Garcia made the list. Why have these players fallen off the list?
As I discussed, Tucker is not on the list because he is a free agent relative soon and because of his current injury. Bregman fell off the list in 2022 due to aging and his impending free agency (after this season). Valdez actually just fell off the list this season with Clemens writing that “ If he had either more team control or more current juice, he’d still be on the list.” Garcia fell off the list last season as he approached free agency and did not step up to a top-of-the-rotation alternative. Of course, his subsequent Tommy John surgery is a reminder that future pitching value is always limited by injury risk.
The list of players who fell off the list gives you a sense of what the Astros are lacking in 2024. They do not have a top 10 player at his position with several years to go before free agency like they did with Bregman and Tucker. They lack young starting pitching at an All Star level. It is possible that Hunter Brown will get there next season, but his shaky start to 2024 kept him off of this list.
The Missing Man
The Astros also lack a young position player who is at a star level and several years before free agency. Or do they? Because that might describe Yainer Diaz. I was surprised Diaz did not make the list and asked Clemens about that in an online chat he conducted.
Clemens wrote that “I’m not a believer believer in the defense at all, and I don’t really think the Astros are either. That puts a LOT of pressure on his bat, because I’m just skeptical that he can stay behind the plate in the long run.”
Clemens also mentioned Logan O’Hoppe of the Angels as someone who also did not make the Top 50 but who he thought was ahead of Diaz at catcher.
All-In on 2024
The conclusion from looking at the Fangraphs Top 50 lists fits with something I have written about the Astros decision making over the last 13 months—the front office is all-in on winning in 2024, and will figure out the future when we get there in the offseason.
I have written similar analyses about the moves to trade for Justin Verlander last year, to sign Josh Hader this offseason, and to acquire Yusei Kikuchi at this year’s trade deadline. The Fangraphs list helps explain why this is the case. The Astros medium term future is murkier than 2024. They may lose Alex Bregman this offseason and Kyle Tucker after next offseason and they lack young stars to replace them—in the way that Tucker helped replace George Springer’s star level production and Valdez helped replace Gerrit Cole’s production.
The Astros are going for it in 2024, in part because they have to.